Game Recap: WPG 4, STL 3 (SO), February 22, 2025

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Game Recap

WPG4

Final/SOSat, Feb 22, 2025Every game that night

STL3

WPG beat STL 4-3 in a shootout, with the chances close: 2.31 expected goals to 2.75. R. Thomas led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). K. Connor had 10 shots on goal against our projection of 3.1. E. Comrie stopped 21 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
WPG	1	1	1	1	4
STL	1	0	2	0	3

1st 4:58WPGN. Ehlers0.19 xG
1st 15:34STLR. Thomas0.09 xG
2nd 11:01WPGG. Vilardi0.19 xG
3rd 0:16STLR. Thomas0.11 xG
3rd 17:10STLP. BuchnevichPP0.15 xG
3rd 19:32WPGG. Vilardi0.08 xG

Team Stats

WPGSTL

28Shots on goal24

2.31Expected goals2.75

50Shot attempts57

205v5 shots on goal16

0/2Power play1/4

24Hits34

14Blocked shots13

10Penalty minutes6

16Giveaways16

2Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 2.31 xGSTL 2.75 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG28 on goal, 3 scored

STL24 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
G. Vilardi	C	2	0	2	2	0	1	+1	0	15:57	2:24
C. Perfetti	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	+2	0	13:55	0:26
M. Scheifele	C	0	1	1	1	3	1	0	0	22:55	2:28
K. Connor	LW	0	1	1	10	1	0	+1	0	22:35	2:22
V. Namestnikov	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	17:11	0:20
N. Ehlers	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+2	0	16:38	2:25
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	17:05	0:00
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:22	0:00
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	14:06	0:24
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:45	0:13
R. Kupari	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	9:06	0:00
D. Gustafsson	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	8:53	0:00
C. Miller	D	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	4	13:41	0:24
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	2	2	3	+1	0	26:40	0:10
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	+2	6	24:23	2:24
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	2	4	1	-1	0	23:16	0:00
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	22:51	0:00
V. Heinola	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	12:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Comrie	24	21	3	.875	64:47	Win
K. Kahkonen	0	0	0	–	0:00

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Buchnevich	LW	1	2	3	3	0	0	+2	0	21:53	3:13
R. Thomas	C	2	1	3	3	0	0	+2	0	21:36	3:37
O. Sundqvist	C	0	1	1	3	3	0	0	0	13:00	2:44
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	19:32	3:08
D. Holloway	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	17:11	3:19
J. Kyrou	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:56	2:25
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	16:46	2:42
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	0	1	3	-2	4	14:02	0:43
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	1	7	0	-2	0	13:47	0:22
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	1	6	2	-1	0	13:01	0:13
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	10:46	1:31
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	10:13	0:00
C. Fowler	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	21:02	2:58
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	24:04	3:28
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	22:41	1:11
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	3	3	2	0	0	21:20	0:32
R. Suter	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	16:19	0:04
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-2	0	14:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	28	25	3	.893	64:52	OT loss
J. Binnington	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownAdam Lowry WPG Plays in his hometown3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 2.9, STL 2.6	WPG 4, STL 3
Total goals	5.5	7
Shots on goal	WPG 27.4, STL 27.3	WPG 28, STL 24
Win chance	WPG 56%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.1	10	0.98	1	36%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.9	1	0.75	0	32%	0
WPG N. Ehlers	2.7	1	0.82	1	27%	1
STL D. Holloway	2.3	2	0.55	0	21%	0
STL R. Thomas	2.2	3	0.83	3	23%	2
STL P. Buchnevich	2.1	3	0.70	3	26%	1
WPG M. Scheifele	2.1	1	0.92	1	33%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	2.0	1	0.47	0	22%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	1.9	2	0.72	2	29%	2
STL C. Parayko	1.9	1	0.34	0	9%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.9	1	0.56	2	19%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.8	0	0.54	0	20%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.7	2	0.49	0	9%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.7	2	0.37	0	6%	0
WPG M. Appleton	1.5	1	0.35	0	13%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.5	1	0.35	0	19%	0
STL Z. Bolduc	1.4	2	0.35	0	13%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.4	2	0.30	0	5%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.4	0	0.51	1	17%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.4	0	0.40	1	8%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.3	1	0.31	0	13%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.3	3	0.27	0	6%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.3	3	0.39	0	16%	0
STL M. Joseph	1.2	1	0.26	0	10%	0
WPG R. Kupari	1.2	0	0.21	0	9%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.1	1	0.20	0	10%	0
WPG C. Miller	1.1	0	0.19	1	5%	0
STL R. Faksa	1.0	0	0.22	0	9%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.0	0	0.29	0	5%	0
WPG V. Heinola	1.0	1	0.18	0	2%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	1.0	3	0.28	1	11%	0
STL N. Walker	0.9	1	0.23	0	12%	0
STL T. Tucker	0.9	0	0.14	0	4%	0
WPG L. Stanley	0.9	2	0.17	0	3%	0
WPG D. Gustafsson	0.8	0	0.18	0	6%	0
STL R. Suter	0.8	0	0.18	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.