Game Recap: WPG 2, STL 7, April 24, 2025

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Game Recap

WPG2

FinalThu, Apr 24, 2025PlayoffsEvery game that night

STL7

STL beat WPG 7-2, and the chances backed it up: 2.76 expected goals to 1.74. STL outshot WPG 28 to 19. C. Fowler led the way with 5 points (1 G, 4 A). C. Fowler had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. J. Binnington stopped 17 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	0	0	2	2
STL	3	0	4	7

1st 0:48STLP. Buchnevich0.35 xG
1st 3:11STLP. BuchnevichPP0.09 xG
1st 15:51STLC. Fowler0.16 xG
3rd 4:32WPGD. Gustafsson0.14 xG
3rd 5:24STLP. Buchnevich0.20 xG
3rd 7:56STLJ. KyrouPP0.21 xG
3rd 10:32STLA. Toropchenko0.07 xG
3rd 12:50WPGN. PionkPP0.04 xG
3rd 16:17STLC. ParaykoPP0.05 xG

Team Stats

WPGSTL

19Shots on goal28

1.74Expected goals2.76

52Shot attempts62

95v5 shots on goal20

1/4Power play3/8

59Hits54

16Blocked shots10

40Penalty minutes22

12Giveaways12

7Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 1.74 xGSTL 2.76 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG19 on goal, 2 scored

STL28 on goal, 7 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Appleton	C	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	0	14:04	1:59
M. Barron	C	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	0	11:40	1:22
D. Gustafsson	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	0	8:33	0:00
J. Anderson-Dolan	C	0	1	1	0	6	2	+1	2	8:27	0:00
K. Connor	LW	0	0	0	2	0	2	-4	0	19:29	3:29
M. Scheifele	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-3	0	18:26	3:35
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	16:52	3:54
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	3	2	2	-3	0	16:46	3:37
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	15:12	1:54
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	1	5	1	-1	0	15:01	0:12
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	12	14:07	1:18
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	10:29	0:00
N. Pionk	D	1	0	1	3	5	0	-2	2	22:52	2:07
C. Miller	D	0	1	1	1	5	0	+1	2	16:52	0:40
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	22:17	0:17
J. Morrissey	D	0	0	0	1	6	2	-2	0	21:44	3:52
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	2	6	0	-2	6	16:58	0:04
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	0	3	3	0	16	15:27	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	25	19	6	.760	50:32	Loss
E. Comrie	3	2	1	.667	9:28

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Buchnevich	LW	3	1	4	5	5	0	+3	0	18:58	4:13
R. Thomas	C	0	4	4	0	0	0	+3	2	16:53	4:17
J. Snuggerud	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+3	0	16:36	4:25
R. Faksa	C	0	1	1	0	4	0	+1	0	15:02	2:09
J. Kyrou	RW	1	0	1	2	2	0	-1	0	15:00	1:59
J. Neighbours	LW	0	1	1	2	8	0	0	0	14:33	3:44
A. Toropchenko	RW	1	0	1	1	4	1	+1	0	12:46	1:22
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	12	14:37	1:40
O. Sundqvist	C	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	2	14:10	2:39
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	0	6	2	0	0	13:37	2:21
A. Texier	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	11:54	1:50
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	4	10:41	2:39
C. Fowler	D	1	4	5	5	0	2	+3	0	19:03	4:31
C. Parayko	D	1	0	1	3	3	2	+3	0	20:18	1:46
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	23:41	3:48
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	2	23:09	2:38
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	1	6	0	-1	0	16:21	0:50
N. Leddy	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	13:13	0:49

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	19	17	2	.895	60:00	Win
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownAdam Lowry WPG Plays in his hometown1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 2.9, STL 2.7	WPG 2, STL 7
Total goals	5.6	9
Shots on goal	WPG 25.2, STL 24.9	WPG 19, STL 28
Win chance	WPG 53%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.2	2	0.97	0	36%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.8	2	0.69	1	30%	1
WPG M. Scheifele	2.2	1	0.91	0	33%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	2.1	1	0.69	0	13%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	2.0	5	0.72	4	26%	3
STL R. Thomas	2.0	0	0.90	4	23%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	2.0	2	0.59	0	21%	0
STL Z. Bolduc	1.9	1	0.47	0	21%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.8	3	0.46	0	20%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.8	1	0.41	0	20%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.8	1	0.54	0	20%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.7	1	0.41	0	6%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.7	3	0.32	1	8%	1
STL J. Snuggerud	1.6	0	0.45	1	17%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.6	3	0.39	1	7%	1
STL J. Neighbours	1.5	2	0.47	1	22%	0
WPG M. Appleton	1.5	0	0.31	1	13%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.4	0	0.25	0	5%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.4	1	0.39	0	17%	0
WPG C. Miller	1.4	1	0.25	1	6%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.3	2	0.30	0	6%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.3	5	0.43	5	6%	1
STL A. Texier	1.2	2	0.28	0	13%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.2	0	0.42	0	14%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.2	0	0.21	1	10%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.1	1	0.20	1	10%	1
WPG B. Tanev	1.1	1	0.25	0	12%	0
STL N. Walker	1.1	0	0.23	0	12%	0
WPG L. Schenn	1.1	2	0.14	0	3%	0
STL R. Faksa	1.0	0	0.20	1	9%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	1.0	1	0.28	0	11%	0
WPG J. Anderson-Dolan	0.9	0	0.15	1	8%	0
STL T. Tucker	0.9	1	0.14	0	4%	0
WPG L. Stanley	0.8	0	0.16	0	2%	0
WPG D. Gustafsson	0.7	1	0.13	1	5%	1
STL N. Leddy	0.7	1	0.19	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.