Game Recap: WPG 1, STL 5, April 27, 2025

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Game Recap

WPG1

FinalSun, Apr 27, 2025PlayoffsEvery game that night

STL5

STL beat WPG 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.50 expected goals to 1.66. J. Neighbours led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). N. Pionk had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. J. Binnington stopped 30 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	1	0	0	1
STL	1	3	1	5

1st 13:58WPGK. Connor0.20 xG
1st 19:37STLJ. Neighbours0.10 xG
2nd 10:46STLT. Tucker0.05 xG
2nd 17:23STLB. Schenn0.16 xG
2nd 18:54STLJ. Faulk0.02 xG
3rd 2:01STLR. Thomas0.17 xG

Team Stats

WPGSTL

31Shots on goal24

1.66Expected goals2.50

67Shot attempts45

255v5 shots on goal22

0/2Power play0/3

40Hits40

11Blocked shots20

36Penalty minutes24

13Giveaways18

2Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 1.66 xGSTL 2.50 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG31 on goal, 1 scored

STL24 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Connor	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	-1	0	16:47	2:11
C. Perfetti	C	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	0	16:15	2:08
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	4	4	0	0	0	17:19	1:45
M. Scheifele	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	16:41	2:12
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	1	6	0	-1	14	16:39	0:00
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	10	16:16	1:50
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-2	0	16:02	2:09
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	2	15:50	1:52
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	3	4	0	-2	0	15:11	1:49
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0	11:31	0:00
J. Anderson-Dolan	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	10:36	0:00
D. Gustafsson	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	8:58	0:00
D. Samberg	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	23:39	0:03
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	5	3	0	0	0	22:35	1:51
J. Morrissey	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	-2	0	21:58	2:10
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	3	4	4	-2	0	21:56	0:00
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-2	10	13:17	0:00
H. Fleury	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	12:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	18	13	5	.722	42:01	Loss
E. Comrie	6	6	0	1.000	17:59

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Neighbours	LW	1	2	3	1	3	0	+2	0	15:43	2:33
B. Schenn	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	+2	0	15:45	2:06
R. Thomas	C	1	0	1	2	4	0	+1	0	17:58	2:12
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	2	16:21	1:56
O. Sundqvist	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	+3	0	14:57	2:01
A. Texier	LW	0	1	1	0	3	0	+1	0	10:40	0:49
J. Snuggerud	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:08	2:44
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	2	5	1	0	0	15:48	0:48
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	15:25	0:45
J. Kyrou	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	14:53	2:08
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	1	5	3	0	10	14:20	0:00
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	10	11:11	1:54
C. Parayko	D	0	2	2	4	1	3	+2	0	20:22	1:23
J. Faulk	D	1	0	1	2	6	2	+1	0	21:53	1:54
C. Fowler	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	+1	0	18:53	2:15
N. Leddy	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	18:11	0:59
T. Tucker	D	1	0	1	2	2	2	+1	2	17:05	0:00
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	+2	0	20:27	1:13

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	31	30	1	.968	60:00	Win
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownAdam Lowry WPG Plays in his hometown1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 2.9, STL 2.7	WPG 1, STL 5
Total goals	5.6	6
Shots on goal	WPG 24.7, STL 25.0	WPG 31, STL 24
Win chance	WPG 52%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.1	2	0.95	1	35%	1
STL J. Kyrou	2.7	2	0.69	0	29%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.1	1	0.88	0	32%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	2.1	0	0.75	1	27%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	2.0	3	0.66	0	13%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.9	3	0.58	1	21%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.9	2	0.91	1	23%	1
WPG A. Iafallo	1.8	0	0.45	0	19%	0
STL Z. Bolduc	1.8	0	0.44	0	20%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.8	3	0.40	0	20%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.7	2	0.42	1	7%	1
STL C. Parayko	1.7	4	0.34	2	9%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.7	2	0.53	2	20%	1
WPG N. Pionk	1.6	5	0.40	0	8%	0
STL J. Snuggerud	1.5	2	0.48	0	17%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.5	1	0.47	3	22%	1
WPG D. Samberg	1.4	0	0.25	1	5%	0
WPG M. Appleton	1.4	0	0.31	0	12%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.4	1	0.39	0	17%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.4	3	0.32	0	7%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.3	1	0.47	1	7%	0
STL A. Texier	1.2	0	0.29	1	13%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.2	4	0.22	0	10%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.2	3	0.40	0	14%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.2	2	0.22	0	10%	0
WPG B. Tanev	1.1	1	0.24	0	12%	0
WPG L. Schenn	1.1	0	0.14	0	3%	0
STL N. Walker	1.1	1	0.23	0	12%	0
STL R. Faksa	1.0	0	0.21	0	9%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	1.0	0	0.29	1	11%	0
WPG H. Fleury	0.9	0	0.12	0	2%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	0.9	3	0.26	0	4%	0
STL T. Tucker	0.9	2	0.15	1	4%	1
WPG J. Anderson-Dolan	0.9	1	0.16	0	8%	0
WPG D. Gustafsson	0.7	1	0.14	0	6%	0
STL N. Leddy	0.7	0	0.19	1	3%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.