Game Recap: WPG 3, VAN 2 (OT), February 25, 2026

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Game Recap

WPG3

Final/OTWed, Feb 25, 2026Every game that night

VAN2

WPG beat VAN 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.04 expected goals to 2.53. M. Scheifele led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). L. Stanley had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. E. Comrie stopped 21 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
WPG	1	1	0	1	3
VAN	1	1	0	0	2

1st 1:58VAND. O'Connor0.10 xG
1st 11:42WPGK. Connor0.23 xG
2nd 0:38VANE. Kane0.04 xG
2nd 18:45WPGG. Vilardi0.31 xG
OT 1:37WPGC. Perfetti0.24 xG

Team Stats

WPGVAN

28Shots on goal23

4.04Expected goals2.53

74Shot attempts43

195v5 shots on goal20

0/3Power play0/1

20Hits24

7Blocked shots21

2Penalty minutes4

16Giveaways16

3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 4.04 xGVAN 2.53 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG28 on goal, 3 scored

VAN22 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Scheifele	C	0	2	2	3	0	1	+2	0	23:16	4:22
G. Vilardi	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+2	0	22:53	4:03
K. Connor	LW	1	0	1	4	1	0	+2	2	22:38	3:51
C. Perfetti	C	1	0	1	4	0	1	0	0	16:15	3:56
A. Lowry	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	12:24	0:00
J. Toews	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	15:05	2:04
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	14:25	2:07
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	13:11	1:19
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	13:02	1:37
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:05	0:01
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	10:39	0:01
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	10:31	0:01
D. Samberg	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	22:05	0:01
L. Schenn	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	12:40	0:01
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	0	25:34	3:52
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	22:11	0:37
E. Salomonsson	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	20:24	0:00
V. Heinola	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	+1	0	13:44	2:07

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Comrie	23	21	2	.913	61:26	Win
D. DiVincentiis	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Boeser	RW	0	1	1	2	2	2	+1	0	19:53	1:09
E. Pettersson	C	0	1	1	0	0	7	-1	0	16:25	1:07
D. O'Connor	LW	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	0	15:36	0:00
E. Kane	LW	1	0	1	4	2	0	0	2	14:14	0:48
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	17:22	0:07
M. Rossi	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	17:07	1:05
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:30	0:51
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	15:07	1:07
L. Ohgren	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	14:05	0:07
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:23	0:00
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	9:25	0:00
L. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:23	0:46
F. Hronek	D	0	0	0	4	3	0	+1	0	28:53	1:12
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	4	3	-1	0	22:44	0:07
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	3	2	4	+1	0	19:34	0:00
T. Willander	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	19:08	0:46
Z. Buium	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:30	0:48
P. Joseph	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:53	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
N. Tolopilo	28	25	3	.893	61:16	OT loss
K. Lankinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WPG

Line 1G. Vilardi18:29K. Connor17:29M. Scheifele17:29

Line 2A. Iafallo11:52C. Perfetti11:29A. Lowry10:56

Line 3J. Toews12:43G. Nyquist12:07V. Namestnikov11:14

Line 4M. Barron11:00T. Pearson9:49C. Koepke9:27

Pair 1D. Samberg20:13E. Salomonsson19:34

Pair 2D. DeMelo20:13L. Stanley20:12

Pair 3L. Schenn11:27V. Heinola11:37

VAN

Line 1T. Blueger14:09C. Garland13:44L. Ohgren13:12

Line 2B. Boeser16:10M. Rossi14:05D. O'Connor13:49

Line 3E. Kane13:15E. Pettersson14:10J. DeBrusk12:51

Line 4D. Kampf10:50L. Karlsson8:37N. Hoglander9:25

Pair 1F. Hronek22:29E. Pettersson17:45

Pair 2M. Pettersson18:06T. Willander17:22

Pair 3P. Joseph11:50Z. Buium15:31

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayBrock Boeser VAN Turns 29 that day1 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 3.2, VAN 2.9	WPG 3, VAN 2
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	WPG 27.0, VAN 26.9	WPG 28, VAN 23
Win chance	WPG 55%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.4	4	1.28	1	39%	1
VAN E. Kane	2.3	4	0.51	1	23%	1
WPG M. Scheifele	2.2	3	1.23	2	37%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.2	1	0.51	0	23%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.1	2	0.65	1	27%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	2.0	4	0.64	1	21%	1
WPG G. Vilardi	1.9	2	0.88	1	30%	1
VAN C. Garland	1.9	1	0.55	0	19%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.7	0	0.51	0	18%	0
VAN L. Ohgren	1.6	2	0.35	0	14%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.6	0	0.71	1	24%	0
VAN M. Rossi	1.5	1	0.58	0	21%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.5	1	0.37	1	16%	1
VAN F. Hronek	1.4	4	0.54	0	8%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.4	2	0.41	0	12%	0
WPG J. Toews	1.3	0	0.44	0	16%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.3	1	0.27	1	4%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.3	0	0.28	0	11%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.2	1	0.40	1	16%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.2	1	0.36	0	15%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.2	0	0.38	0	13%	0
WPG E. Salomonsson	1.2	2	0.11	0	5%	0
WPG G. Nyquist	1.1	3	0.42	0	13%	0
VAN T. Willander	1.1	0	0.43	0	9%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.1	0	0.31	0	6%	0
WPG L. Stanley	1.1	5	0.30	0	8%	0
VAN D. Kampf	1.0	0	0.26	0	10%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	1.0	1	0.30	0	13%	0
WPG T. Pearson	1.0	0	0.26	0	11%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	1.0	0	0.31	0	4%	0
VAN Z. Buium	1.0	1	0.37	0	8%	0
WPG V. Heinola	1.0	2	0.20	0	3%	0
WPG C. Koepke	0.9	0	0.21	0	9%	0
VAN P. Joseph	0.9	0	0.18	0	4%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.8	3	0.22	0	6%	0
WPG L. Schenn	0.8	0	0.13	1	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.