Hit Rates and Projections

How often he went over, and what the model expects next.

A hit rate is how often he went over the line: his last 5, 10 and 20 games, the season, and against tonight's opponent. On a whole-number line, a game right on it is left out. Fewer than 5 games shows in grey.

A projection is the model's number for his next game: his average if the game were played many times. A projection of 2.8 shots is the middle of a spread. Some nights he gets 1, some nights 5.

The chance over a line comes from that spread. At 2.8 shots, over 2.5 comes in a little more than half the time.

The edge is our chance less the chance your price needs to break even. It compares two estimates. It is not a pick.

Some plays are overs at a plus price, an anytime goal at +250 say. Most of them lose, and they still pay over time when our chance is clear of the price. Judge them over many plays, not one night.

Where you'll see it: Model vs Book: Player Props, Player Game Log, Trends