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Game Recap
ANA3
BOS2
ANA beat BOS 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.75 expected goals to 2.85. L. Carlsson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Zegras had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. L. Dostal stopped 9 of 10.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| BOS | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 17:27ANAT. Zegras0.10 xG
- 1st 19:22ANAF. Vatrano0.07 xG
- 2nd 9:08BOSE. LindholmPP0.17 xG
- 3rd 18:49BOSM. Geekie0.16 xG
- OT 3:39ANAL. Carlsson0.42 xG
Team Stats
ANABOS
29Shots on goal30
2.75Expected goals2.85
54Shot attempts62
205v5 shots on goal20
0/1Power play1/4
16Hits25
19Blocked shots12
8Penalty minutes4
16Giveaways19
5Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
ANA 2.75 xGBOS 2.85 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Carlsson | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:37 | 0:25 |
| T. Zegras | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:08 | 2:00 |
| T. Terry | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 18:53 | 1:30 |
| F. Vatrano | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:48 | 1:31 |
| M. McTavish | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:11 | 1:35 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:46 | 0:29 |
| R. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:10 | 1:31 |
| R. Fabbri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:41 | 0:00 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:38 | 0:16 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:51 | 0:00 |
| B. Leason | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:13 | 0:00 |
| R. Johnston | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:42 | 0:00 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 25:43 | 0:00 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:14 | 0:00 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 20:44 | 0:00 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:10 | 0:13 |
| O. Zellweger | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:30 | 0:30 |
| D. Helleson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:49 | 0:00 |
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:25 | 4:55 |
| M. Geekie | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:42 | 3:04 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:07 | 3:18 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 18:55 | 3:09 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:50 | 3:25 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:11 | 2:06 |
| M. Poitras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:28 | 2:53 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:24 | 2:23 |
| T. Frederic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:54 | 0:00 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:31 | 0:08 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:33 | 0:00 |
| R. Tufte | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:15 | 0:00 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 22:57 | 4:06 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25:18 | 1:21 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:13 | 0:00 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:42 | 0:10 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:37 | 1:27 |
| M. Callahan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:43 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 29 | 26 | 3 | .897 | 62:51 | OT loss |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ANA 2.5, BOS 3.1 | ANA 3, BOS 2 |
| Total goals | 5.5 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | ANA 27.5, BOS 30.1 | ANA 29, BOS 30 |
| Win chance | BOS 61% | ANA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 4.5 | 3 | 1.36 | 1 | 46% | 0 |
| ANA F. Vatrano | 3.1 | 2 | 0.58 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| BOS B. Marchand | 2.8 | 3 | 0.88 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.3 | 0 | 0.72 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 2.3 | 4 | 0.65 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 2.1 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 2.1 | 3 | 0.68 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 2.0 | 0 | 0.78 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| ANA T. Zegras | 2.0 | 5 | 0.57 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 1.9 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.8 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.7 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| BOS C. Coyle | 1.7 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 1.7 | 3 | 0.39 | 2 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.7 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| ANA J. Trouba | 1.6 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA R. Fabbri | 1.5 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| BOS T. Frederic | 1.5 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| ANA O. Zellweger | 1.4 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA B. Leason | 1.4 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.37 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.3 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS B. Carlo | 1.3 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS M. Poitras | 1.2 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS J. Brazeau | 1.2 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.2 | 4 | 0.45 | 2 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA D. Helleson | 1.1 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS P. Wotherspoon | 1.1 | 3 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| ANA B. Dumoulin | 0.9 | 2 | 0.23 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| ANA I. Lundestrom | 0.9 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS R. Tufte | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 0.7 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS M. Callahan | 0.6 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA R. Johnston | 0.4 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.