Game Recap: ANA 4, CBJ 3 (OT), December 14, 2024

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

ANA4

Final/OTSat, Dec 14, 2024Every game that night

CBJ3

ANA beat CBJ 4-3 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.95 expected goals to 4.05. CBJ outshot ANA 42 to 27. A. Killorn led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). Z. Werenski had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.5. J. Gibson stopped 39 of 42.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
ANA	1	1	1	1	4
CBJ	2	0	1	0	3

1st 16:33ANAM. McTavish0.11 xG
1st 17:09CBJK. MarchenkoPP0.07 xG
1st 17:43CBJC. Sillinger0.13 xG
2nd 13:56ANAA. Killorn0.18 xG
3rd 11:25CBJJ. van Riemsdyk0.20 xG
3rd 17:14ANAJ. LaCombe0.06 xG
OT 1:43ANAA. Killorn0.22 xG

Team Stats

ANACBJ

27Shots on goal42

2.95Expected goals4.05

59Shot attempts73

255v5 shots on goal37

0/1Power play1/2

21Hits23

23Blocked shots16

4Penalty minutes2

14Giveaways14

6Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 2.95 xGCBJ 4.05 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA27 on goal, 4 scored

CBJ41 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Killorn	LW	2	1	3	2	0	1	+3	0	17:57	0:56
T. Terry	RW	0	2	2	4	0	1	+1	0	17:44	1:04
R. Fabbri	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	+2	2	16:15	0:56
R. Strome	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	15:59	1:04
M. McTavish	C	1	0	1	3	1	2	+1	2	15:30	0:54
L. Carlsson	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	16:29	1:04
F. Vatrano	RW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	16:15	1:04
C. Gauthier	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	15:35	0:56
B. Leason	RW	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	0	15:17	0:00
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	13:06	0:00
B. McGinn	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:45	0:00
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	11:18	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	1	1	2	3	1	3	+1	0	22:16	1:04
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	20:26	0:00
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	2	1	6	0	0	20:25	0:00
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	19:34	0:00
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	18:30	0:02
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	18:23	0:56

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	42	39	3	.929	61:32	Win
L. Dostal	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Marchenko	RW	1	0	1	6	2	1	-1	0	19:47	1:59
K. Johnson	C	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	0	18:22	1:59
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	17:24	0:37
C. Sillinger	C	1	0	1	3	2	0	-3	0	15:44	0:37
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	1	1	1	2	2	-1	0	13:25	0:00
M. Olivier	RW	0	1	1	2	5	0	-2	2	13:07	0:00
K. Labanc	RW	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	9:23	0:37
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	20:48	1:59
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	19:30	1:59
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	18:37	0:37
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	1	6	2	+1	0	9:45	0:00
M. Pyyhtia	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	8:07	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	0	1	1	7	0	0	-1	0	28:20	2:36
D. Severson	D	0	1	1	2	0	3	0	0	22:26	0:00
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	23:17	0:00
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	-1	0	22:55	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	11:19	0:00
J. Johnson	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	10:53	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	27	23	4	.852	61:43	OT loss
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 3.0, CBJ 3.5	ANA 4, CBJ 3
Total goals	6.5	7
Shots on goal	ANA 28.3, CBJ 33.9	ANA 27, CBJ 42
Win chance	CBJ 59%	ANA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.5	7	0.98	1	20%	0
ANA F. Vatrano	3.4	0	0.73	0	33%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.6	6	0.73	1	30%	1
CBJ S. Monahan	2.6	1	0.85	0	27%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.5	4	0.90	2	32%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	2.3	1	0.63	0	27%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.2	1	0.59	0	22%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	2.2	5	0.77	1	26%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	2.2	3	0.50	1	17%	1
ANA O. Zellweger	2.0	2	0.38	0	9%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	2.0	1	0.50	0	17%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.8	2	0.61	1	20%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.8	2	0.61	3	24%	2
ANA M. McTavish	1.8	3	0.63	1	23%	1
CBJ J. Riemsdyk	1.7	3	0.51	1	18%	1
CBJ D. Severson	1.7	2	0.55	1	14%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.6	1	0.33	1	15%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.6	2	0.30	0	6%	0
ANA B. Leason	1.6	1	0.41	0	17%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.6	1	0.34	0	8%	0
ANA R. Fabbri	1.5	1	0.51	2	25%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	1.4	2	0.48	0	19%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.4	0	0.38	0	8%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.4	2	0.37	1	16%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.3	1	0.39	0	8%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.2	0	0.24	0	5%	0
ANA B. McGinn	1.2	0	0.28	0	15%	0
CBJ K. Labanc	1.1	0	0.32	1	11%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.1	3	0.31	2	8%	1
ANA B. Dumoulin	1.1	0	0.27	0	4%	0
CBJ S. Kuraly	1.1	1	0.26	0	12%	0
ANA I. Lundestrom	0.9	1	0.29	0	14%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.9	2	0.19	0	3%	0
CBJ M. Pyyhtia	0.9	2	0.20	0	9%	0
ANA J. Harkins	0.8	2	0.19	0	8%	0
CBJ J. Johnson	0.7	4	0.13	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.