Game Recap: ANA 3, CBJ 4 (OT), December 16, 2025

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Game Recap

ANA3

Final/OTTue, Dec 16, 2025Every game that night

CBJ4

CBJ beat ANA 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.71 expected goals to 2.35. Z. Werenski led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). C. Sillinger had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. J. Greaves stopped 24 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
ANA	0	2	1	0	3
CBJ	1	2	0	1	4

1st 8:21CBJZ. Werenski0.16 xG
2nd 3:35ANAR. Strome0.19 xG
2nd 3:59CBJZ. Werenski0.07 xG
2nd 4:18CBJB. Jenner0.22 xG
2nd 5:29ANAM. Granlund0.19 xG
3rd 16:44ANAJ. LaCombe0.03 xG
OT 3:32CBJA. Fantilli0.20 xG

Team Stats

ANACBJ

27Shots on goal28

2.35Expected goals2.71

59Shot attempts58

215v5 shots on goal21

0/4Power play0/2

20Hits20

21Blocked shots19

4Penalty minutes8

19Giveaways17

2Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 2.35 xGCBJ 2.71 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA26 on goal, 3 scored

CBJ28 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Granlund	C	1	1	2	3	2	1	+2	0	21:16	6:04
R. Poehling	C	0	2	2	4	2	3	+2	0	14:31	0:00
F. Vatrano	RW	0	1	1	2	0	3	0	0	15:18	0:24
R. Strome	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+2	0	12:06	1:42
T. Terry	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	22:45	5:57
L. Carlsson	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	20:26	5:31
C. Gauthier	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	19:30	3:56
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	15:37	5:24
B. Sennecke	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	14:07	1:51
M. McTavish	C	0	0	0	3	2	2	-2	0	12:36	1:40
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	1	5	0	+1	0	12:00	0:00
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	4	11:57	0:11
J. LaCombe	D	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	31:23	5:42
I. Moore	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	+3	0	15:28	0:00
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	2	2	6	-1	0	25:18	0:11
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	17:51	1:27
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	-2	0	12:28	0:00
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	12:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
V. Husso	28	24	4	.857	63:30	OT loss
L. Dostal	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Jenner	C	1	1	2	2	5	1	+2	0	15:55	0:51
K. Johnson	C	0	2	2	0	0	1	+1	0	10:38	0:03
A. Fantilli	C	1	0	1	4	2	1	-1	0	20:49	3:08
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	2	14:14	3:08
B. Gaunce	C	0	1	1	0	3	1	+1	0	13:02	0:02
K. Marchenko	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	19:38	3:08
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	16:44	0:50
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	16:19	3:08
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	6	2	0	-1	0	15:20	0:00
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	13:57	0:00
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	13:42	0:48
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:08	0:01
Z. Werenski	D	2	1	3	4	0	1	+1	2	29:31	3:57
I. Provorov	D	0	1	1	1	1	4	+1	0	26:42	0:52
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	22:28	0:00
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	19:43	0:04
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	2	11:59	0:00
B. Smith	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	10:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	27	24	3	.889	63:01	Win
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

ANA

Line 1M. Granlund13:10T. Terry14:05F. Vatrano13:18

Line 2A. Killorn11:42L. Carlsson12:01C. Gauthier11:42

Line 3M. McTavish10:56B. Sennecke11:27C. Kreider9:39

Line 4R. Poehling12:25R. Johnston11:58R. Strome10:22

Pair 1J. Trouba20:27J. LaCombe20:40

Pair 2O. Zellweger15:26I. Moore15:28

Pair 3R. Gudas11:18P. Mintyukov11:11

CBJ

Line 1K. Marchenko14:47A. Fantilli16:00D. Voronkov13:09

Line 2C. Coyle11:54M. Wood12:15C. Sillinger11:43

Line 3B. Jenner12:10S. Monahan11:14E. Chinakhov10:32

Line 4B. Gaunce9:48K. Johnson9:18I. Lundestrom9:17

Pair 1D. Mateychuk19:54Z. Werenski19:07

Pair 2D. Severson19:39I. Provorov18:02

Pair 3B. Smith8:34D. Fabbro9:52

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 3.1, CBJ 3.5	ANA 3, CBJ 4
Total goals	6.6	7
Shots on goal	ANA 30.5, CBJ 32.2	ANA 27, CBJ 28
Win chance	CBJ 56%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	4.0	4	1.09	3	21%	2
ANA C. Gauthier	3.3	1	0.77	0	28%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	3.1	4	0.88	1	35%	1
CBJ K. Marchenko	3.0	1	0.89	0	33%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.6	4	0.82	0	27%	0
ANA C. Kreider	2.5	0	0.72	0	36%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	2.5	0	0.88	0	29%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	2.3	1	0.72	0	30%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	2.2	1	0.81	0	25%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	2.2	2	0.55	2	25%	1
ANA J. LaCombe	2.2	1	0.61	1	15%	1
CBJ M. Wood	2.2	0	0.43	0	19%	0
ANA B. Sennecke	2.1	0	0.70	0	21%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	2.0	6	0.48	0	16%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	2.0	1	0.48	1	10%	0
ANA F. Vatrano	2.0	2	0.36	1	18%	0
ANA M. McTavish	1.9	3	0.55	0	20%	0
ANA M. Granlund	1.8	3	0.67	2	18%	1
ANA J. Trouba	1.8	2	0.32	0	8%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.6	2	0.33	0	10%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.6	1	0.61	0	22%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.6	0	0.50	2	18%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.5	3	0.39	0	17%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.4	1	0.45	0	10%	0
CBJ E. Chinakhov	1.4	2	0.30	1	14%	0
CBJ B. Gaunce	1.3	0	0.25	1	12%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.3	3	0.41	0	12%	0
ANA R. Poehling	1.2	4	0.37	2	13%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.2	0	0.21	0	4%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.1	1	0.32	1	10%	1
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.1	0	0.26	0	6%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.1	0	0.30	0	7%	0
ANA I. Moore	1.1	0	0.23	1	7%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.9	1	0.24	0	10%	0
CBJ B. Smith	0.8	0	0.19	0	4%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.6	1	0.16	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 14 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.