CGY beat ANA 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.49 expected goals to 1.95. B. Coleman led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). R. Gudas had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. D. Wolf stopped 26 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| CGY | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 0:16CGYN. Kadri0.11 xG
- 1st 8:01ANAO. Zellweger0.20 xG
- 2nd 10:25CGYB. ColemanSH0.17 xG
- 2nd 15:19CGYK. Rooney0.13 xG
- 3rd 1:17CGYB. ColemanPP0.08 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
ANA 1.95 xGCGY 3.49 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Terry | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:44 | 2:18 |
| R. Strome | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:41 | 1:53 |
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 17:45 | 1:42 |
| M. McTavish | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:46 | 1:42 |
| S. Colangelo | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:19 | 1:42 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:15 | 2:13 |
| F. Vatrano | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 16:09 | 2:16 |
| L. Carlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:37 | 1:42 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:41 | 0:00 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:10 | 0:00 |
| J. Harkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:55 | 0:05 |
| B. Leason | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:34 | 0:02 |
| O. Zellweger | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 19:09 | 2:18 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 23:57 | 1:42 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 22:15 | 0:00 |
| D. Helleson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:45 | 0:00 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:36 | 0:25 |
| O. Kylington | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:00 | 0:00 |
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Coleman | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:01 | 1:42 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:28 | 1:36 |
| N. Kadri | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:48 | 2:36 |
| K. Rooney | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:27 | 0:00 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:13 | 0:00 |
| A. Klapka | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:54 | 0:00 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:22 | 1:37 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:58 | 2:19 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:09 | 1:25 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:50 | 2:24 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:06 | 2:25 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:36 | 0:00 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:58 | 2:33 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 2 | 20:00 | 1:28 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:24 | 0:00 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:12 | 0:00 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:34 | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ANA 2.9, CGY 3.4 | ANA 1, CGY 4 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | ANA 27.5, CGY 33.5 | ANA 27, CGY 34 |
| Win chance | CGY 57% | CGY won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.9 | 2 | 1.03 | 1 | 36% | 1 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.7 | 1 | 0.65 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.6 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| ANA F. Vatrano | 2.5 | 3 | 0.53 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 2.5 | 3 | 0.71 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.4 | 5 | 0.56 | 2 | 24% | 2 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 2.3 | 2 | 0.97 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.3 | 2 | 0.71 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 2.3 | 2 | 0.50 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.1 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CGY M. Frost | 2.1 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 2.0 | 4 | 0.48 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CGY J. Farabee | 2.0 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| ANA T. Zegras | 2.0 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| ANA O. Zellweger | 1.7 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.7 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 1.7 | 0 | 0.53 | 2 | 24% | 0 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 1.7 | 0 | 0.60 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.7 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 1.6 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.5 | 2 | 0.49 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| ANA S. Colangelo | 1.5 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| ANA J. Trouba | 1.3 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.3 | 4 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY A. Klapka | 1.2 | 3 | 0.23 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| ANA B. Leason | 1.2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.1 | 5 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA D. Helleson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 1.0 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 0.9 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA O. Kylington | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.9 | 3 | 0.15 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA J. Harkins | 0.8 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.8 | 1 | 0.14 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| ANA I. Lundestrom | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.