Game Recap: ANA 3, CHI 2, November 19, 2024

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Game Recap

ANA3

FinalTue, Nov 19, 2024Every game that night

CHI2

ANA beat CHI 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 2.38 expected goals to 1.53. J. Dickinson led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Anderson had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. J. Gibson stopped 18 of 20.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
ANA	1	0	2	3
CHI	1	1	0	2

1st 17:03CHIJ. Dickinson0.05 xG
1st 19:05ANAP. Mintyukov0.10 xG
2nd 3:54CHIJ. Dickinson0.14 xG
3rd 5:10ANAA. Killorn0.19 xG
3rd 9:38ANAL. Carlsson0.10 xG

Team Stats

ANACHI

24Shots on goal20

2.38Expected goals1.53

56Shot attempts42

205v5 shots on goal18

0/2Power play0/1

27Hits13

14Blocked shots15

2Penalty minutes4

11Giveaways9

3Takeaways13

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 2.38 xGCHI 1.53 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA23 on goal, 3 scored

CHI20 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Zegras	C	0	2	2	2	0	0	+2	0	18:40	1:30
A. Killorn	LW	1	1	2	3	4	0	+2	0	17:43	1:25
L. Carlsson	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	18:33	2:32
B. Leason	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+2	0	16:15	1:28
F. Vatrano	RW	0	0	0	2	4	1	-1	0	17:01	2:32
T. Terry	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:49	2:30
R. Strome	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:41	2:35
C. Gauthier	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:36	1:28
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	14:47	0:00
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	2	6	1	-1	0	12:06	0:00
S. Colangelo	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	10:12	0:00
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	0	5	0	-1	2	9:54	0:00
P. Mintyukov	D	1	0	1	3	2	2	+2	0	19:25	1:28
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	-1	0	22:09	0:00
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	+1	0	21:20	0:00
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	19:15	2:32
J. LaCombe	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	17:09	0:00
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:25	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	20	18	2	.900	60:00	Win
L. Dostal	0	0	0	–	0:00

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Bedard	C	0	2	2	1	2	0	+2	2	20:26	2:00
J. Dickinson	C	2	0	2	3	1	0	+2	0	16:11	0:00
T. Teravainen	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	15:02	2:00
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	-1	0	20:55	2:00
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	16:59	0:00
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	16:25	0:00
P. Kurashev	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	16:01	0:00
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	15:57	0:00
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	+1	0	15:22	0:00
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	10:50	2:00
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	9:15	0:00
C. Smith	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	2	8:51	0:00
T. Brodie	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	16:15	0:00
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	26:34	1:32
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	20:12	0:00
A. Martinez	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	20:09	0:28
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	16:38	0:00
N. Allan	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:47	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Soderblom	24	21	3	.875	58:11	Loss
D. Commesso	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 2.8, CHI 3.1	ANA 3, CHI 2
Total goals	5.9	5
Shots on goal	ANA 27.5, CHI 30.8	ANA 24, CHI 20
Win chance	CHI 56%	ANA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
ANA F. Vatrano	3.2	2	0.64	0	29%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.9	1	0.91	2	26%	0
CHI R. Donato	2.6	3	0.60	0	24%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.4	1	0.78	0	29%	0
CHI T. Hall	2.4	1	0.69	0	24%	0
ANA T. Zegras	2.1	2	0.62	2	22%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	2.1	1	0.45	0	14%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	2.1	1	0.64	0	26%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.9	1	0.69	1	24%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.9	0	0.55	0	21%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.9	3	0.57	2	23%	1
ANA R. Strome	1.8	1	0.53	0	18%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.8	1	0.44	0	20%	0
CHI C. Smith	1.8	0	0.39	0	17%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	1.7	1	0.50	1	20%	1
ANA O. Zellweger	1.7	2	0.39	0	8%	0
CHI P. Kurashev	1.5	0	0.57	0	18%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.5	3	0.45	2	19%	2
CHI L. Reichel	1.5	1	0.40	0	14%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.4	0	0.30	0	8%	0
CHI A. Martinez	1.3	0	0.31	0	8%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.3	3	0.37	1	6%	1
ANA B. Leason	1.3	1	0.33	1	15%	0
CHI J. Anderson	1.3	4	0.36	0	14%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.2	1	0.34	0	5%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.1	0	0.23	0	4%	0
ANA B. Dumoulin	1.1	2	0.25	0	4%	0
ANA I. Lundestrom	1.0	0	0.27	0	14%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.0	1	0.24	0	3%	0
ANA D. Helleson	0.9	0	0.33	0	5%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	0.9	0	0.26	0	4%	0
ANA J. Harkins	0.8	2	0.16	0	8%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.6	0	0.15	0	6%	0
CHI T. Brodie	0.6	0	0.27	1	3%	0
CHI N. Allan	0.6	2	0.31	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.