Game Recap: ANA 4, DET 5 (OT), February 23, 2025

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Game Recap

ANA4

Final/OTSun, Feb 23, 2025Every game that night

DET5

DET beat ANA 5-4 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.84 expected goals to 2.86. DET outshot ANA 36 to 28. P. Kane led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). A. Lyon stopped 24 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
ANA	1	1	2	0	4
DET	3	1	0	1	5

1st 3:11DETM. Kasper0.12 xG
1st 4:29DETA. DeBrincatPP0.29 xG
1st 5:06DETP. KanePP0.06 xG
1st 8:24ANAR. Strome0.41 xG
2nd 2:14DETM. RasmussenPP0.39 xG
2nd 7:04ANAC. Gauthier0.12 xG
3rd 17:44ANAO. Zellweger0.05 xG
3rd 19:07ANAC. Gauthier0.08 xG
OT 4:00DETP. Kane0.31 xG

Team Stats

ANADET

28Shots on goal36

2.86Expected goals4.84

54Shot attempts69

245v5 shots on goal23

0/1Power play3/4

37Hits28

12Blocked shots12

12Penalty minutes6

16Giveaways18

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 2.86 xGDET 4.84 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA28 on goal, 4 scored

DET36 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Gauthier	LW	2	0	2	3	1	2	+3	0	17:39	0:00
T. Terry	RW	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	2	19:22	0:46
F. Vatrano	RW	0	1	1	2	3	1	0	2	19:18	2:00
M. McTavish	C	0	1	1	3	3	0	+1	0	19:18	1:19
R. Strome	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	19:09	2:00
R. Fabbri	C	0	1	1	3	4	0	+2	0	17:41	0:00
L. Carlsson	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	16:39	1:14
T. Zegras	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	-1	0	20:37	2:00
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+2	0	13:34	0:00
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	10:33	0:00
B. Leason	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:09	0:00
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	7:49	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	0	1	1	2	1	3	0	0	25:31	0:41
O. Zellweger	D	1	0	1	4	0	2	+1	0	17:08	0:00
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	0	6	0	+1	2	20:01	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	2	19:08	0:00
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	2	18:27	0:00
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	+1	0	18:04	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	36	31	5	.861	61:05	OT loss
O. Dansk	0	0	0	–	0:00

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Kane	RW	2	1	3	3	1	0	+1	0	21:43	2:41
L. Raymond	LW	0	2	2	2	0	0	-2	0	19:13	2:41
M. Kasper	C	1	1	2	3	5	1	-1	0	18:07	1:02
A. DeBrincat	RW	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0	20:57	2:44
D. Larkin	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	-2	0	20:24	2:38
J. Compher	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	18:44	0:59
M. Rasmussen	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	-1	0	8:02	0:10
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	14:38	0:00
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	13:41	0:56
E. Soderblom	LW	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	0	13:17	0:00
T. Motte	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	9:19	0:00
J. Berggren	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:09	0:49
M. Seider	D	0	1	1	2	7	4	-1	0	25:50	2:10
E. Gustafsson	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	18:59	1:30
S. Edvinsson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	24:15	0:00
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	4	1	1	-2	2	19:47	0:00
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	4	19:20	0:00
J. Holl	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:57	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Lyon	28	24	4	.857	63:38	Win
C. Talbot	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 2.7, DET 3.3	ANA 4, DET 5
Total goals	6.0	9
Shots on goal	ANA 27.0, DET 31.4	ANA 28, DET 36
Win chance	DET 60%	DET won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DET D. Larkin	3.6	4	1.04	1	37%	0
ANA F. Vatrano	3.1	2	0.62	1	29%	0
DET A. DeBrincat	3.0	4	0.86	1	32%	1
DET P. Kane	2.8	3	0.88	3	28%	2
DET L. Raymond	2.6	2	1.04	2	32%	0
DET M. Seider	2.3	2	0.61	1	10%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.3	3	0.76	1	28%	0
DET V. Tarasenko	2.1	2	0.63	0	25%	0
ANA T. Zegras	2.1	3	0.62	0	22%	0
ANA M. McTavish	2.1	3	0.57	1	23%	0
DET M. Kasper	2.1	3	0.50	2	20%	1
ANA C. Gauthier	1.9	3	0.37	2	15%	2
ANA J. LaCombe	1.9	2	0.45	1	10%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.7	1	0.52	0	22%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.7	4	0.25	0	8%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.7	3	0.53	1	16%	1
DET E. Soderblom	1.6	2	0.46	0	19%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.6	0	0.29	0	6%	0
ANA R. Fabbri	1.6	3	0.45	1	22%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.6	1	0.39	1	17%	1
ANA O. Zellweger	1.5	4	0.27	1	7%	1
DET J. Compher	1.4	1	0.51	1	19%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.4	0	0.26	0	5%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	1.4	0	0.41	1	17%	0
ANA B. Leason	1.3	0	0.28	0	12%	0
DET J. Berggren	1.3	1	0.39	0	18%	0
DET E. Gustafsson	1.2	2	0.33	1	6%	0
ANA D. Helleson	1.2	1	0.25	0	7%	0
DET T. Motte	1.2	2	0.19	0	10%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.1	0	0.36	0	10%	0
DET A. Johansson	1.1	0	0.21	0	5%	0
DET J. Veleno	1.0	2	0.27	0	12%	0
ANA B. Dumoulin	1.0	0	0.26	0	4%	0
ANA I. Lundestrom	0.9	0	0.23	0	11%	0
DET J. Holl	0.5	1	0.15	0	2%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.4	0	0.10	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.