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Game Recap
ANA2
EDM3
EDM beat ANA 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.59 expected goals to 2.47. D. Nurse led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. LaCombe had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. S. Skinner stopped 27 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| EDM | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 16:54EDMR. Nugent-HopkinsPP0.05 xG
- 2nd 7:57EDMD. Nurse0.09 xG
- 2nd 18:32ANAB. Leason0.19 xG
- 3rd 6:53ANAJ. LaCombePP0.07 xG
- 3rd 18:25EDML. Draisaitl0.16 xG
Team Stats
ANAEDM
29Shots on goal26
2.47Expected goals3.59
52Shot attempts62
245v5 shots on goal24
1/2Power play1/1
14Hits3
12Blocked shots14
4Penalty minutes6
4Giveaways17
1Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
ANA 2.47 xGEDM 3.59 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Strome | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:01 | 1:49 |
| L. Carlsson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:18 | 1:13 |
| B. Leason | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:51 | 0:00 |
| T. Terry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:47 | 1:55 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:59 | 0:45 |
| R. Fabbri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:29 | 0:41 |
| F. Vatrano | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:02 | 1:50 |
| M. McTavish | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:09 | 0:44 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:26 | 0:39 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:06 | 0:00 |
| J. Harkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:37 | 0:00 |
| R. Johnston | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 8:03 | 0:00 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25:35 | 1:48 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:18 | 0:00 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 20:40 | 0:05 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:50 | 0:00 |
| O. Zellweger | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:53 | 0:46 |
| D. Helleson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:53 | 0:00 |
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Draisaitl | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 20:21 | 0:42 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:25 | 0:42 |
| Z. Hyman | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:58 | 0:42 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:42 | 0:00 |
| J. Skinner | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:27 | 0:00 |
| C. McDavid | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22:44 | 0:42 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:15 | 0:00 |
| M. Janmark | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:33 | 0:00 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:20 | 0:00 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:53 | 0:00 |
| A. Henrique | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 12:44 | 0:00 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:46 | 0:00 |
| D. Nurse | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:52 | 0:00 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 24:23 | 0:42 |
| M. Ekholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 24:17 | 0:00 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 22:10 | 0:00 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:55 | 0:00 |
| T. Stecher | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:41 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Skinner | 29 | 27 | 2 | .931 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Pickard | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ANA 2.5, EDM 4.1 | ANA 2, EDM 3 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | ANA 24.9, EDM 34.7 | ANA 29, EDM 26 |
| Win chance | EDM 74% | EDM won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM C. McDavid | 3.4 | 0 | 1.94 | 0 | 44% | 0 |
| EDM Z. Hyman | 3.2 | 3 | 0.95 | 1 | 42% | 0 |
| EDM L. Draisaitl | 3.0 | 4 | 1.61 | 1 | 48% | 1 |
| ANA F. Vatrano | 2.9 | 3 | 0.55 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.7 | 2 | 1.00 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 2.6 | 2 | 0.48 | 2 | 12% | 1 |
| EDM V. Arvidsson | 2.6 | 2 | 0.70 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| EDM M. Ekholm | 2.4 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.2 | 3 | 0.69 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 2.0 | 4 | 0.90 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| EDM J. Skinner | 1.8 | 0 | 0.50 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 1.8 | 4 | 0.49 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| EDM B. Kulak | 1.8 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 1.7 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| ANA R. Fabbri | 1.6 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.6 | 0 | 0.49 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| ANA O. Zellweger | 1.6 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.5 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.5 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.4 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| ANA J. Trouba | 1.4 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| EDM C. Brown | 1.3 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.35 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| ANA B. Leason | 1.3 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| EDM K. Kapanen | 1.3 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 1.1 | 5 | 0.31 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| EDM C. Perry | 1.1 | 0 | 0.37 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| EDM T. Stecher | 0.9 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA D. Helleson | 0.8 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| EDM M. Janmark | 0.8 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| ANA B. Dumoulin | 0.8 | 3 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA I. Lundestrom | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| ANA J. Harkins | 0.7 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA R. Johnston | 0.4 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.