Game Recap: ANA 6, EDM 2, March 4, 2025

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Game Recap

ANA6

FinalTue, Mar 4, 2025Every game that night

EDM2

ANA beat EDM 6-2, with the chances close: 3.02 expected goals to 3.37. EDM outshot ANA 35 to 27. C. Gauthier led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). L. Dostal stopped 33 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
ANA	4	1	1	6
EDM	1	0	1	2

1st 10:05EDML. DraisaitlPP0.12 xG
1st 11:57ANAL. Carlsson0.13 xG
1st 13:37ANAM. McTavish0.02 xG
1st 18:26ANAS. Colangelo0.05 xG
1st 18:38ANAM. McTavish0.40 xG
2nd 13:22ANAR. Strome0.19 xG
3rd 3:56ANAA. Killorn0.32 xG
3rd 4:44EDMC. McDavidPP0.26 xG

Team Stats

ANAEDM

27Shots on goal35

3.02Expected goals3.37

44Shot attempts71

235v5 shots on goal30

0/2Power play2/2

21Hits28

15Blocked shots11

6Penalty minutes6

14Giveaways9

4Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 3.02 xGEDM 3.37 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA26 on goal, 6 scored

EDM35 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Gauthier	LW	0	3	3	3	0	1	+3	0	13:58	1:10
M. McTavish	C	2	0	2	2	0	1	+3	0	16:47	2:48
L. Carlsson	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	+2	0	16:34	1:12
S. Colangelo	RW	1	1	2	2	1	0	+3	2	13:23	0:56
A. Killorn	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+2	0	18:34	1:11
T. Zegras	C	0	1	1	1	2	1	+2	0	18:32	2:49
R. Strome	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	17:14	2:39
F. Vatrano	RW	0	1	1	4	0	2	+1	2	17:00	2:36
T. Terry	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	17:25	2:47
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:35	0:02
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:39	0:00
B. Leason	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:15	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	0	3	3	1	2	2	+5	0	24:11	1:22
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	1	5	2	+5	0	22:53	0:00
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	20:52	0:25
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	19:25	0:03
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	13:49	0:00
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	+1	0	12:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	35	33	2	.943	59:55	Win
J. Gibson	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	1	1	2	5	1	0	-2	0	21:59	2:04
L. Draisaitl	C	1	1	2	3	1	0	-4	0	19:14	2:04
Z. Hyman	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:30	1:33
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	15:09	1:33
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-3	0	15:07	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:43	0:31
M. Savoie	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-4	0	13:24	0:00
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	13:11	0:00
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	0	1	3	-1	0	12:59	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	12:20	0:00
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:56	0:00
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	2	11:44	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	1	1	3	0	2	-2	0	21:17	1:33
M. Ekholm	D	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	17:59	0:31
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	1	8	3	-3	2	23:35	0:31
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-4	0	19:45	0:00
J. Klingberg	D	0	0	0	4	2	2	-1	2	18:30	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	-2	0	17:30	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Pickard	11	7	4	.636	19:08	Loss
S. Skinner	16	14	2	.875	40:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 2.6, EDM 3.7	ANA 6, EDM 2
Total goals	6.3	8
Shots on goal	ANA 26.2, EDM 34.2	ANA 27, EDM 35
Win chance	EDM 67%	ANA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.4	5	1.73	2	42%	1
EDM L. Draisaitl	3.3	3	1.50	2	46%	1
EDM E. Bouchard	3.1	3	0.91	1	18%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	3.1	1	0.84	0	39%	0
ANA F. Vatrano	3.0	4	0.59	1	27%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.6	1	0.42	0	11%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	2.3	3	0.51	1	13%	0
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.3	1	0.58	0	21%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.2	2	0.73	0	26%	0
ANA M. McTavish	2.1	2	0.58	2	22%	2
ANA T. Zegras	2.1	1	0.59	1	21%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.0	2	0.83	0	25%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	1.8	3	0.36	3	15%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.8	3	0.37	0	8%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.8	1	0.54	1	16%	1
ANA J. LaCombe	1.7	1	0.44	3	11%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.7	3	0.48	1	20%	1
EDM J. Klingberg	1.5	4	0.46	0	9%	0
ANA S. Colangelo	1.4	2	0.19	2	12%	1
ANA L. Carlsson	1.3	2	0.43	2	18%	1
EDM A. Henrique	1.3	0	0.45	0	21%	0
EDM C. Brown	1.3	2	0.36	0	11%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.3	0	0.24	0	5%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.3	1	0.30	0	12%	0
EDM C. Perry	1.2	0	0.35	0	17%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.2	1	0.23	0	5%	0
ANA B. Leason	1.1	1	0.24	0	11%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.1	0	0.28	0	11%	0
EDM T. Emberson	1.0	2	0.24	0	3%	0
ANA D. Helleson	0.9	0	0.19	0	6%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	0.9	1	0.25	0	6%	0
ANA J. Harkins	0.9	1	0.16	0	7%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.9	1	0.31	0	11%	0
ANA B. Dumoulin	0.8	0	0.23	0	4%	0
ANA I. Lundestrom	0.8	1	0.22	0	10%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.