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Game Recap
ANA3
FinalMon, Apr 20, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night
EDM4

EDM beat ANA 4-3, with the chances close: 2.92 expected goals to 2.64. T. Terry led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). L. Carlsson had 10 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. C. Ingram stopped 25 of 28.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
ANA0303
EDM2024
  1. 1st 17:21EDMJ. Dickinson0.15 xG
  2. 1st 18:21EDMK. Kapanen0.01 xG
  3. 2nd 0:19ANAT. Terry0.27 xG
  4. 2nd 4:38ANAL. Carlsson0.07 xG
  5. 2nd 14:29ANAT. TerryPP0.04 xG
  6. 3rd 11:30EDMJ. Dickinson0.04 xG
  7. 3rd 18:06EDMK. Kapanen0.18 xG

Team Stats

ANAEDM
28Shots on goal34
2.64Expected goals2.92
66Shot attempts71
235v5 shots on goal29
1/2Power play0/2
37Hits47
19Blocked shots19
4Penalty minutes4
14Giveaways17
2Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 2.64 xGEDM 2.92 xGGoal

00.511.522.531st2nd3rdEDM goal, 17:21EDM goal, 18:21ANA goal, 0:19ANA goal, 4:38ANA goal, 14:29EDM goal, 11:30EDM goal, 18:06

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA28 on goal, 3 scored
EDM33 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. TerryRW213500+1018:040:49
L. CarlssonC11210000017:520:49
M. GranlundC011110-1020:110:49
C. KreiderLW0110410014:160:50
A. KillornLW000110-2418:481:16
B. SenneckeRW000620-2016:200:00
T. WasheC0000120014:060:00
C. GauthierLW000150-1013:020:57
R. PoehlingC000112-1012:361:16
M. McTavishC0001200012:071:15
J. VielLW0000510011:310:00
J. LaCombeD0111340026:341:16
J. CarlsonD011012-1024:021:08
J. TroubaD0000340025:290:00
P. MintyukovD0000200019:350:00
T. HindsD000000-2011:530:00
I. MooreD0000420011:370:00
R. GudasD000121-109:400:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Dostal34304.88258:17Loss
V. Husso000–0:00

EDM Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
L. DraisaitlC022200+1022:063:31
V. PodkolzinRW022271+1018:040:35
K. KapanenRW202740+2018:000:00
J. DickinsonC202212+1012:010:00
C. McDavidC0003110024:503:45
Z. HymanLW0001800021:363:48
R. Nugent-HopkinsC0000200018:203:25
M. SavoieC000210+1014:160:15
J. RoslovicC0001200012:090:12
C. DachC000180008:400:00
T. FredericC000031008:330:00
A. HenriqueC000110002:560:00
J. WalmanD022220+2215:010:03
M. EkholmD011213+2023:000:29
T. EmbersonD011121+1010:200:00
E. BouchardD000003-1026:363:57
D. NurseD0005330221:310:00
C. MurphyD0001140019:560:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Ingram28253.89360:00Win
T. Jarry000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

ANA

Line 1T. Terry16:02L. Carlsson15:17C. Kreider12:00
Line 2A. Killorn17:22M. Granlund15:39B. Sennecke15:50
Line 3J. Viel11:31T. Washe11:34
Line 4R. Poehling9:47C. Gauthier10:22M. McTavish10:52
Pair 1J. LaCombe24:35J. Trouba22:46
Pair 2J. Carlson19:52P. Mintyukov17:39
Pair 3R. Gudas9:40T. Hinds10:03

EDM

Line 1Z. Hyman16:10C. McDavid18:41M. Savoie14:01
Line 2V. Podkolzin17:24K. Kapanen16:35L. Draisaitl17:59
Line 3T. Frederic8:33C. Dach8:40A. Henrique2:56
Line 4J. Dickinson10:30J. Roslovic11:57R. Nugent-Hopkins13:17
Pair 1D. Nurse20:21C. Murphy18:24
Pair 2M. Ekholm19:57E. Bouchard20:22
Pair 3J. Walman14:53T. Emberson10:20

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreANA 3.2, EDM 3.7ANA 3, EDM 4
Total goals6.97
Shots on goalANA 28.6, EDM 30.4ANA 28, EDM 34
Win chanceEDM 58%EDM won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
EDM C. McDavid3.631.77042%0
ANA C. Gauthier3.010.71030%0
EDM E. Bouchard2.801.27022%0
EDM Z. Hyman2.610.90039%0
ANA T. Terry2.550.77326%2
ANA L. Carlsson2.5100.76227%1
EDM L. Draisaitl2.321.24238%0
EDM M. Savoie2.220.64024%0
ANA B. Sennecke2.260.61021%0
EDM J. Roslovic2.110.67025%0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins2.100.90027%0
EDM D. Nurse2.150.41010%0
EDM V. Podkolzin2.020.61222%0
ANA M. Granlund1.910.70121%0
ANA A. Killorn1.910.51022%0
ANA J. Carlson1.800.66112%0
ANA M. McTavish1.810.51019%0
ANA C. Kreider1.800.61129%0
ANA J. Trouba1.700.3307%0
EDM J. Walman1.720.39211%0
ANA J. LaCombe1.610.60110%0
EDM K. Kapanen1.670.43216%2
EDM M. Ekholm1.520.55110%0
ANA R. Poehling1.410.49016%0
EDM T. Frederic1.300.27015%0
EDM A. Henrique1.310.33016%0
ANA J. Viel1.200.2009%0
EDM J. Dickinson1.120.32214%2
EDM C. Murphy1.110.2907%0
ANA T. Hinds1.100.1204%0
ANA P. Mintyukov1.000.2807%0
EDM C. Dach0.910.25010%0
ANA T. Washe0.900.1609%0
EDM T. Emberson0.710.1913%0
ANA R. Gudas0.710.1402%0
ANA I. Moore0.700.1303%0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.