Game Recap: ANA 2, LAK 1 (SO), February 8, 2025

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Game Recap

ANA2

Final/SOSat, Feb 8, 2025Every game that night

LAK1

ANA beat LAK 2-1 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.25 expected goals to 3.72. LAK outshot ANA 45 to 26. C. Gauthier had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. L. Dostal stopped 44 of 45.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
ANA	0	0	1	1	2
LAK	0	0	1	0	1

3rd 7:04ANAB. Dumoulin0.07 xG
3rd 17:21LAKA. Kempe0.12 xG

Team Stats

ANALAK

26Shots on goal45

2.25Expected goals3.72

66Shot attempts82

185v5 shots on goal33

0/2Power play0/3

18Hits14

15Blocked shots21

6Penalty minutes4

16Giveaways14

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 2.25 xGLAK 3.72 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA25 on goal, 1 scored

LAK44 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Carlsson	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	17:40	0:00
F. Vatrano	RW	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	20:44	2:21
T. Terry	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	20:13	2:21
T. Zegras	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	18:21	2:21
R. Strome	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	2	17:11	2:00
M. McTavish	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:52	2:21
R. Fabbri	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	16:43	0:00
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	16:08	0:00
C. Gauthier	LW	0	0	0	6	1	1	0	0	13:41	0:00
B. Leason	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	11:57	0:00
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	11:23	0:00
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:35	0:00
J. Trouba	D	0	1	1	2	1	3	+1	0	25:00	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	0	21:09	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	22:29	0:00
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	0	2	4	-1	0	21:50	0:00
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	15:36	0:00
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:53	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	45	44	1	.978	64:56	Win
J. Gibson	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Kempe	RW	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0	22:35	4:16
P. Danault	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	19:46	1:41
W. Foegele	LW	0	1	1	4	0	0	+1	0	14:35	1:34
K. Fiala	LW	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	26:14	4:21
Q. Byfield	RW	0	0	0	4	0	2	0	0	23:52	1:34
A. Laferriere	RW	0	0	0	6	2	1	0	0	23:17	4:17
A. Kopitar	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	22:41	4:27
T. Moore	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	19:48	1:43
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	8:27	0:00
T. Lewis	C	0	0	0	4	2	0	-1	0	7:35	0:00
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	7:33	0:00
D. Doughty	D	0	0	0	0	2	4	+1	2	31:09	4:15
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	0	26:35	0:00
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	20:46	0:06
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	4	0	4	0	2	13:03	0:00
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:17	1:46
J. Moverare	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:22	0:00
K. Burroughs	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2:25	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Rittich	26	25	1	.962	65:00	OT loss
P. Copley	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 2.4, LAK 2.9	ANA 2, LAK 1
Total goals	5.3	3
Shots on goal	ANA 25.3, LAK 30.5	ANA 26, LAK 45
Win chance	LAK 58%	ANA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK A. Kempe	3.3	4	0.91	1	36%	1
LAK K. Fiala	3.1	6	0.91	0	33%	0
ANA F. Vatrano	2.8	3	0.54	0	26%	0
LAK W. Foegele	2.6	4	0.55	1	23%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.5	6	0.54	0	22%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.4	2	0.59	0	23%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.2	4	0.68	0	21%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.1	2	0.69	0	26%	0
ANA M. McTavish	2.0	1	0.53	0	21%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.9	0	0.62	0	14%	0
ANA T. Zegras	1.9	1	0.54	0	19%	0
LAK V. Gavrikov	1.8	1	0.38	0	8%	0
LAK P. Danault	1.8	3	0.61	1	21%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.7	4	0.37	0	7%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	1.7	6	0.35	0	14%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.7	1	0.49	0	21%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.6	2	0.39	0	9%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.6	3	0.50	0	15%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.5	2	0.81	0	24%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.5	2	0.23	0	6%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.4	2	0.25	1	5%	0
LAK J. Spence	1.4	0	0.37	0	6%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.4	1	0.26	0	6%	0
ANA R. Fabbri	1.4	1	0.41	0	20%	0
ANA B. Leason	1.4	1	0.28	0	12%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	1.2	1	0.34	1	15%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	1.2	2	0.33	0	12%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.0	0	0.27	0	6%	0
LAK T. Lewis	1.0	4	0.17	0	8%	0
ANA D. Helleson	1.0	0	0.22	0	6%	0
ANA I. Lundestrom	0.9	0	0.22	0	11%	0
ANA B. Dumoulin	0.9	1	0.21	1	3%	1
LAK T. Jeannot	0.9	0	0.21	0	11%	0
LAK J. Moverare	0.7	1	0.11	0	3%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.4	0	0.10	0	4%	0
LAK K. Burroughs	0.4	0	0.05	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.