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Game Recap
ANA1
LAK6
LAK beat ANA 6-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.07 expected goals to 1.55. A. Kempe led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). V. Gavrikov had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. D. Kuemper stopped 24 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| LAK | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
- 1st 1:24LAKQ. ByfieldPP0.16 xG
- 2nd 1:46ANAC. Gauthier0.05 xG
- 2nd 2:17LAKA. Kopitar0.02 xG
- 2nd 5:30LAKK. FialaPP0.13 xG
- 2nd 16:34LAKA. Laferriere0.19 xG
- 3rd 1:08LAKK. FialaPP0.10 xG
- 3rd 10:47LAKJ. Spence0.04 xG
Team Stats
ANALAK
25Shots on goal29
1.55Expected goals3.07
45Shot attempts62
185v5 shots on goal21
0/4Power play3/6
31Hits16
16Blocked shots11
12Penalty minutes10
8Giveaways11
3Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
ANA 1.55 xGLAK 3.07 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Killorn | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:14 | 2:44 |
| L. Carlsson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:09 | 2:18 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 13:12 | 2:25 |
| T. Terry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:46 | 5:26 |
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:55 | 5:32 |
| M. McTavish | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:06 | 5:27 |
| F. Vatrano | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:29 | 4:55 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:34 | 0:10 |
| S. Colangelo | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:52 | 2:23 |
| J. Harkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:59 | 0:10 |
| N. Nesterenko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:40 | 0:10 |
| R. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:37 | 0:00 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 22:50 | 5:25 |
| O. Zellweger | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:24 | 2:35 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 19:06 | 0:00 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19:06 | 0:10 |
| D. Helleson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:30 | 0:10 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:51 | 0:00 |
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:01 | 7:12 |
| A. Kempe | RW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:45 | 7:13 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:52 | 5:44 |
| K. Fiala | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:33 | 6:33 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:11 | 6:37 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:13 | 1:51 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:59 | 2:35 |
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:51 | 1:12 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:23 | 1:51 |
| T. Lewis | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:14 | 0:00 |
| S. Helenius | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:38 | 0:00 |
| J. Malott | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:36 | 0:00 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:57 | 0:09 |
| J. Spence | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:03 | 0:00 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:47 | 0:00 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:40 | 1:13 |
| J. Moverare | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:44 | 0:00 |
| K. Burroughs | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:33 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kuemper | 25 | 24 | 1 | .960 | 60:00 | Win |
| D. Rittich | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ANA 2.4, LAK 3.6 | ANA 1, LAK 6 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | ANA 24.4, LAK 32.9 | ANA 25, LAK 29 |
| Win chance | LAK 69% | LAK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK K. Fiala | 3.2 | 3 | 0.94 | 2 | 34% | 2 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 3.0 | 1 | 0.89 | 3 | 36% | 0 |
| LAK W. Foegele | 2.8 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.6 | 1 | 0.65 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.5 | 3 | 0.48 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| ANA F. Vatrano | 2.3 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.2 | 1 | 0.76 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 2.2 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.1 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 2.0 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 2.0 | 3 | 0.45 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kuzmenko | 1.9 | 0 | 0.81 | 3 | 32% | 0 |
| LAK P. Danault | 1.8 | 1 | 0.62 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| ANA T. Zegras | 1.6 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.6 | 0 | 0.41 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| ANA O. Zellweger | 1.6 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 1.5 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 1.5 | 4 | 0.50 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| LAK V. Gavrikov | 1.5 | 4 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.4 | 2 | 0.87 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.30 | 2 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.3 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| ANA D. Helleson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK J. Spence | 1.3 | 2 | 0.37 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| ANA J. Trouba | 1.2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA S. Colangelo | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA N. Nesterenko | 1.1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| LAK J. Malott | 1.0 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK T. Lewis | 1.0 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| ANA J. Harkins | 0.8 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA I. Lundestrom | 0.6 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK J. Moverare | 0.6 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK S. Helenius | 0.6 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK K. Burroughs | 0.4 | 0 | 0.05 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.