Game Recap: ANA 2, MIN 3 (OT), April 15, 2025

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Game Recap

ANA2

Final/OTTue, Apr 15, 2025Every game that night

MIN3

MIN beat ANA 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.56 expected goals to 2.61. MIN outshot ANA 40 to 29. M. Johansson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. Faber had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. M. Fleury stopped 5 of 5.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
ANA	1	0	1	0	2
MIN	1	0	1	1	3

1st 9:47MINM. Johansson0.13 xG
1st 13:48ANAA. Killorn0.20 xG
3rd 8:45ANAS. Colangelo0.20 xG
3rd 19:38MINJ. Eriksson Ek0.19 xG
OT 4:42MINM. Boldy0.14 xG

Team Stats

ANAMIN

29Shots on goal40

2.61Expected goals3.56

64Shot attempts75

245v5 shots on goal30

0/1Power play0/2

17Hits22

14Blocked shots16

4Penalty minutes2

13Giveaways17

5Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 2.61 xGMIN 3.56 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA29 on goal, 2 scored

MIN40 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. McTavish	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	20:59	1:31
T. Zegras	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	19:31	0:30
L. Carlsson	C	0	1	1	8	0	0	-1	0	19:00	1:30
A. Killorn	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	-1	0	16:56	0:29
S. Colangelo	RW	1	0	1	2	1	2	+1	0	16:38	0:00
C. Gauthier	LW	0	1	1	3	0	2	-1	0	15:51	0:00
T. Terry	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	20:01	1:33
R. Strome	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	17:23	0:27
F. Vatrano	RW	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	2	17:05	0:26
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	8:54	0:00
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:50	0:00
T. Washe	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	6:24	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	2	29:15	1:34
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	25:36	0:00
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	1	5	2	-2	0	24:40	0:00
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	17:34	0:00
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	16:27	0:00
I. Moore	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	40	37	3	.925	64:42	OT loss
V. Husso	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Boldy	LW	1	1	2	3	1	1	+1	0	24:03	3:27
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	2	2	2	0	2	+2	0	21:59	3:38
M. Johansson	LW	1	1	2	4	0	1	+2	0	17:50	0:32
J. Eriksson Ek	C	1	0	1	6	4	0	+1	2	21:21	3:31
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	24:00	3:28
M. Rossi	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	17:41	3:34
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	16:44	0:00
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	3	4	2	0	0	14:24	0:00
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	11:47	0:29
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	10:22	0:26
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	8:36	0:00
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	8:33	0:00
J. Brodin	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	29:35	0:22
J. Middleton	D	0	1	1	2	1	2	-1	0	18:18	0:00
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	9	0	1	0	0	28:17	0:33
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	0	21:42	0:00
J. Merrill	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:38	0:00
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:46	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	24	22	2	.917	58:44
M. Fleury	5	5	0	1.000	4:42	Win

Storylines That Played Out

HometownJackson LaCombe ANA Plays near home (born in Eden Prairie)1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 2.8, MIN 3.4	ANA 2, MIN 3
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	ANA 27.7, MIN 31.4	ANA 29, MIN 40
Win chance	MIN 59%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	4.0	3	1.44	0	48%	0
MIN M. Boldy	3.8	3	1.10	2	35%	1
MIN J. Ek	3.5	6	0.85	1	31%	1
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.6	2	0.95	2	26%	0
ANA F. Vatrano	2.5	1	0.51	0	24%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	2.3	3	0.52	1	20%	0
ANA M. McTavish	2.3	2	0.64	1	23%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.3	1	0.67	0	24%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.1	2	0.50	0	21%	0
MIN B. Faber	2.1	9	0.52	0	12%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.9	3	0.31	0	7%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.9	0	0.44	1	9%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.8	4	0.53	2	18%	1
MIN M. Rossi	1.8	2	0.67	0	24%	0
ANA T. Zegras	1.8	0	0.58	1	20%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.7	1	0.52	0	10%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.7	1	0.47	0	10%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.7	3	0.50	1	21%	1
MIN F. Gaudreau	1.6	1	0.50	0	20%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	1.6	8	0.57	1	21%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.5	2	0.32	1	9%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.5	1	0.24	0	5%	0
ANA D. Helleson	1.5	0	0.27	0	7%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.4	3	0.47	0	20%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.4	2	0.41	0	13%	0
ANA S. Colangelo	1.3	2	0.35	1	19%	1
ANA R. Gudas	1.3	0	0.25	0	4%	0
MIN G. Nyquist	1.2	1	0.47	0	15%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.1	1	0.20	0	11%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	1.1	0	0.20	0	4%	0
MIN J. Brazeau	0.9	0	0.24	0	12%	0
ANA J. Harkins	0.9	0	0.14	0	7%	0
MIN J. Merrill	0.8	0	0.15	0	4%	0
ANA I. Lundestrom	0.7	0	0.20	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.