Game Recap: ANA 4, MTL 3, March 15, 2026

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Game Recap

ANA4

FinalSun, Mar 15, 2026Every game that night

MTL3

ANA beat MTL 4-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.68 expected goals to 3.60. L. Carlsson led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Slafkovský had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. L. Dostal stopped 27 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
ANA	1	2	1	4
MTL	0	3	0	3

1st 7:46ANAL. Carlsson0.19 xG
2nd 0:27ANAL. Carlsson0.10 xG
2nd 1:33MTLA. Newhook0.04 xG
2nd 2:33MTLC. Caufield0.16 xG
2nd 13:06MTLN. Suzuki0.10 xG
2nd 15:39ANAT. Terry0.14 xG
3rd 17:30ANAC. Gauthier0.14 xG

Team Stats

ANAMTL

28Shots on goal30

4.68Expected goals3.60

63Shot attempts62

265v5 shots on goal22

0/1Power play0/4

17Hits14

15Blocked shots20

10Penalty minutes4

8Giveaways19

3Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 4.68 xGMTL 3.60 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA28 on goal, 4 scored

MTL30 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Carlsson	C	2	1	3	5	1	0	+2	0	16:16	1:19
T. Terry	RW	1	2	3	3	0	0	+3	0	14:23	1:20
C. Kreider	LW	0	2	2	2	0	0	+2	0	14:50	1:19
R. Poehling	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	15:36	0:00
C. Gauthier	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	13:59	0:41
J. Viel	LW	0	1	1	2	2	3	0	0	12:04	0:00
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	2	18:57	0:40
M. Granlund	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	2	16:38	0:41
B. Sennecke	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	2	15:48	0:42
T. Washe	C	0	0	0	3	4	0	+1	0	14:19	0:00
F. Vatrano	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:17	0:00
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	8:05	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	20:12	0:42
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	24:05	1:18
J. Carlson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	22:59	1:18
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	20:22	0:00
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	16:51	0:00
I. Moore	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	2	15:19	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	30	27	3	.900	60:00	Win
V. Husso	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Suzuki	C	1	1	2	3	0	2	0	0	24:18	4:45
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	1	1	5	1	2	0	0	21:21	4:39
C. Caufield	RW	1	0	1	4	0	1	-2	0	19:48	4:40
A. Newhook	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	16:12	3:10
J. Anderson	RW	0	1	1	2	3	0	0	2	15:11	0:00
I. Demidov	RW	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	20:12	4:43
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	14:39	3:04
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	13:46	0:00
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	13:22	3:11
A. Texier	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	13:04	3:02
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	12:37	0:00
K. Dach	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1:13	0:00
L. Hutson	D	0	1	1	0	0	5	0	0	25:39	5:07
N. Dobson	D	0	1	1	1	0	5	0	0	23:01	2:41
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	-1	0	21:03	0:03
K. Guhle	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	17:05	0:00
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:12	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	10:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Fowler	28	24	4	.857	58:09	Loss
J. Dobes	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

ANA

Line 1A. Killorn13:11M. Granlund12:17B. Sennecke14:41

Line 2J. Viel12:04C. Gauthier12:16R. Poehling10:47

Line 3T. Terry12:34L. Carlsson13:04C. Kreider11:42

Line 4J. Harkins8:05T. Washe10:11F. Vatrano7:41

Pair 1J. Trouba17:02J. LaCombe17:50

Pair 2J. Carlson16:24O. Zellweger14:28

Pair 3P. Mintyukov14:01I. Moore13:22

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki15:48J. Slafkovský14:16C. Caufield12:38

Line 2P. Danault12:25J. Anderson14:29B. Gallagher10:11

Line 3A. Newhook12:28O. Kapanen10:52I. Demidov12:52

Line 4J. Evans11:42A. Texier10:02K. Dach1:13

Pair 1M. Matheson18:38N. Dobson17:34

Pair 2K. Guhle15:48L. Hutson17:29

Pair 3A. Carrier13:07A. Xhekaj10:08

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamChris Kreider MTL First game against ANA since he left (his team until May 2026)2 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 3.2, MTL 3.6	ANA 4, MTL 3
Total goals	6.7	7
Shots on goal	ANA 28.3, MTL 28.2	ANA 28, MTL 30
Win chance	MTL 56%	ANA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
ANA C. Gauthier	3.5	2	0.85	1	33%	1
MTL C. Caufield	2.9	4	0.89	1	36%	1
ANA B. Sennecke	2.7	2	0.84	0	27%	0
MTL N. Dobson	2.2	1	0.70	1	15%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	2.2	5	0.78	3	26%	2
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.2	5	0.82	1	27%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.2	3	1.05	2	29%	1
ANA J. Trouba	2.1	0	0.42	0	9%	0
ANA C. Kreider	2.0	2	0.72	2	34%	0
ANA T. Terry	1.9	3	0.69	3	23%	1
ANA M. Granlund	1.9	0	0.72	0	21%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.9	0	0.47	0	21%	0
ANA J. Carlson	1.7	1	0.57	0	10%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.7	1	0.62	1	12%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.7	2	0.52	0	11%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.6	2	0.49	0	22%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.6	0	1.06	1	13%	0
MTL A. Texier	1.6	1	0.49	0	19%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.6	4	0.83	0	20%	0
ANA F. Vatrano	1.6	0	0.32	0	17%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.5	2	0.25	0	8%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.5	1	0.35	0	14%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.4	0	0.45	0	17%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.4	1	0.48	1	19%	1
ANA R. Poehling	1.4	1	0.49	1	17%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.3	0	0.37	0	10%	0
MTL P. Danault	1.3	0	0.45	0	15%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.2	2	0.32	1	17%	0
ANA J. Viel	1.2	2	0.19	1	10%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.1	0	0.34	0	9%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.1	2	0.44	0	15%	0
ANA I. Moore	1.0	1	0.23	0	6%	0
ANA T. Washe	1.0	3	0.20	0	11%	0
MTL A. Carrier	0.9	0	0.30	0	7%	0
ANA J. Harkins	0.8	3	0.15	0	6%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.7	2	0.09	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.