Game Recap: ANA 2, NJD 6, October 27, 2024

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

ANA2

FinalSun, Oct 27, 2024Every game that night

NJD6

NJD beat ANA 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.79 expected goals to 2.12. NJD outshot ANA 34 to 26. S. Noesen led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). E. Haula had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. J. Markstrom stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
ANA	1	0	1	2
NJD	0	4	2	6

1st 4:47ANAB. McGinn0.03 xG
2nd 1:16NJDJ. Hughes0.12 xG
2nd 4:42NJDS. Noesen0.14 xG
2nd 17:23NJDS. NoesenPP0.20 xG
2nd 18:49NJDP. Cotter0.43 xG
3rd 1:50NJDN. Hischier0.12 xG
3rd 13:10ANAR. Strome0.18 xG
3rd 19:01NJDE. Haula0.25 xG

Team Stats

ANANJD

26Shots on goal34

2.12Expected goals3.79

48Shot attempts64

175v5 shots on goal29

0/2Power play1/1

20Hits24

13Blocked shots10

7Penalty minutes11

17Giveaways13

2Takeaways0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 2.12 xGNJD 3.79 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA26 on goal, 2 scored

NJD34 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Strome	C	1	1	2	2	1	0	+2	0	13:30	1:36
T. Terry	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	-3	0	18:49	2:12
C. Gauthier	LW	0	1	1	4	1	1	+1	0	14:42	2:11
B. McGinn	LW	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	12:32	0:13
L. Carlsson	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-4	0	17:56	2:09
R. Fabbri	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	-2	0	17:19	0:13
T. Zegras	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	0	17:12	1:38
F. Vatrano	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	2	15:47	1:34
M. McTavish	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:33	2:13
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:32	0:13
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	13:56	1:35
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	5	10:01	0:00
C. Fowler	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	20:24	0:46
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	22:01	2:22
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-3	0	20:37	0:00
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	-2	0	18:37	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	18:29	0:13
T. Luneau	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	16:06	0:52

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Reimer	34	28	6	.824	60:00	Loss
L. Dostal	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Noesen	RW	2	0	2	4	2	0	+1	0	16:51	1:02
D. Mercer	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	+3	0	16:06	0:00
N. Hischier	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+2	0	19:10	1:02
J. Hughes	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	17:50	1:02
E. Haula	LW	1	0	1	6	3	0	+1	0	17:04	0:00
T. Meier	RW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+2	2	16:26	0:00
P. Cotter	LW	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	2	15:54	0:00
O. Palat	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	13:53	0:00
J. Bratt	LW	0	1	1	1	3	0	0	0	13:24	1:02
T. Tatar	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	14:48	0:00
K. MacDermid	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	5	9:12	0:00
C. Lazar	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	4:40	0:00
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	2	2	2	1	1	+2	0	22:27	0:00
D. Hamilton	D	0	2	2	5	0	0	+2	0	18:50	1:02
J. Kovacevic	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	0	20:55	0:00
B. Dillon	D	0	1	1	0	3	3	+1	2	18:22	0:00
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	21:16	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	17:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	26	24	2	.923	59:24	Win
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 2.7, NJD 3.9	ANA 2, NJD 6
Total goals	6.5	8
Shots on goal	ANA 25.2, NJD 34.1	ANA 26, NJD 34
Win chance	NJD 68%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	4.5	3	1.41	1	42%	1
NJD T. Meier	3.4	0	0.92	1	36%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	3.3	5	0.81	2	20%	0
NJD N. Hischier	3.2	3	1.18	1	35%	1
NJD J. Bratt	3.1	1	1.15	1	32%	0
ANA F. Vatrano	2.6	4	0.56	0	26%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.1	2	0.69	1	27%	0
ANA T. Zegras	2.0	2	0.62	0	22%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.9	1	0.62	2	28%	0
NJD E. Haula	1.9	6	0.54	1	21%	1
NJD L. Hughes	1.9	1	0.67	0	12%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.8	0	0.55	0	23%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	1.8	1	0.50	0	20%	0
ANA M. McTavish	1.8	2	0.55	0	21%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	1.8	4	0.39	1	14%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.7	4	0.64	2	22%	2
NJD B. Pesce	1.7	1	0.31	0	7%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.6	2	0.47	2	16%	1
ANA O. Zellweger	1.5	3	0.33	0	7%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.5	2	0.44	1	19%	1
ANA R. Fabbri	1.5	0	0.48	0	23%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.3	1	0.48	1	17%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	1.3	2	0.27	2	5%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	1.3	2	0.36	1	10%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.3	1	0.42	0	7%	0
ANA T. Luneau	1.2	0	0.24	0	5%	0
NJD T. Tatar	1.2	0	0.39	0	15%	0
ANA C. Fowler	1.1	2	0.43	1	7%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.0	1	0.22	0	4%	0
NJD B. Dillon	1.0	0	0.33	1	7%	0
NJD C. Lazar	1.0	1	0.29	0	11%	0
ANA B. Dumoulin	1.0	0	0.24	0	4%	0
ANA B. McGinn	1.0	2	0.20	1	11%	1
ANA I. Lundestrom	0.9	0	0.25	0	12%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.5	0	0.11	0	5%	0
NJD K. MacDermid	0.3	1	0.08	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.