Game Recap: ANA 4, NSH 1, March 20, 2025

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Game Recap

ANA4

FinalThu, Mar 20, 2025Every game that night

NSH1

ANA beat NSH 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.50 expected goals to 1.60. T. Zegras led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. Skjei had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. J. Gibson stopped 33 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
ANA	0	3	1	4
NSH	1	0	0	1

1st 7:07NSHS. StamkosPP0.10 xG
2nd 7:29ANAJ. LaCombe0.26 xG
2nd 13:19ANAT. Terry0.12 xG
2nd 15:36ANAT. Zegras0.29 xG
3rd 19:24ANAA. KillornEN0.51 xG

Team Stats

ANANSH

35Shots on goal34

3.50Expected goals1.60

62Shot attempts77

325v5 shots on goal24

0/2Power play1/2

17Hits17

33Blocked shots15

6Penalty minutes4

11Giveaways8

2Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 3.50 xGNSH 1.60 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA34 on goal, 4 scored

NSH34 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Zegras	C	1	1	2	2	1	0	+3	0	20:24	2:56
M. McTavish	C	0	2	2	5	0	1	+2	2	19:51	2:58
A. Killorn	LW	1	0	1	3	3	0	+1	0	19:24	1:02
B. Leason	RW	0	1	1	1	2	4	+1	0	17:33	0:00
T. Terry	RW	1	0	1	4	0	1	+2	0	16:44	2:52
R. Strome	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	2	14:14	1:08
L. Carlsson	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	17:38	2:54
F. Vatrano	RW	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	14:46	1:04
C. Gauthier	LW	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	0	14:29	1:06
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	11:05	0:00
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	7:44	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	1	0	1	2	1	3	+1	0	23:40	3:06
D. Helleson	D	0	1	1	1	1	3	+2	0	15:30	0:00
P. Mintyukov	D	0	1	1	3	1	3	+1	0	14:31	0:00
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	4	2	2	+2	0	21:45	0:00
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	1	1	6	+1	0	20:25	0:00
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	3	0	4	+1	0	20:01	0:54
O. Kylington	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5:53	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	34	33	1	.971	59:34	Win
L. Dostal	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Stamkos	C	1	0	1	3	1	1	-2	2	19:19	2:49
F. Forsberg	LW	0	1	1	1	4	0	-2	0	18:31	2:49
J. Marchessault	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	0	17:48	2:49
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	20:10	2:49
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	-2	0	15:26	0:00
J. Vrana	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	14:49	0:00
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	-2	0	13:42	0:00
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	13:11	0:00
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	13:08	0:00
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	12:49	0:00
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	11:55	0:00
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	10:40	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	6	0	0	-2	0	22:43	0:00
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	-1	0	21:39	2:49
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	19:47	0:00
M. Del Gaizo	D	0	0	0	5	2	1	-1	0	19:32	0:00
J. Oesterle	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	17:16	0:00
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	14:41	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Annunen	34	31	3	.912	56:54	Loss
J. Saros	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 2.7, NSH 3.4	ANA 4, NSH 1
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	ANA 25.5, NSH 33.4	ANA 35, NSH 34
Win chance	NSH 61%	ANA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.5	1	1.06	1	38%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.9	1	0.86	1	34%	0
ANA F. Vatrano	2.7	2	0.61	0	26%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.5	3	0.94	1	37%	1
NSH L. Evangelista	2.2	2	0.50	0	19%	0
NSH B. Skjei	2.2	6	0.54	0	15%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.1	4	0.76	1	26%	1
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.1	1	0.80	0	27%	0
NSH M. Bunting	2.0	3	0.64	0	24%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	1.9	3	0.49	0	16%	0
ANA M. McTavish	1.9	5	0.64	2	23%	0
ANA T. Zegras	1.8	2	0.58	2	19%	1
ANA A. Killorn	1.7	3	0.50	1	21%	1
ANA R. Strome	1.6	0	0.54	1	16%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.6	0	0.38	0	17%	0
NSH M. Gaizo	1.6	5	0.27	0	5%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.6	2	0.52	1	12%	1
NSH J. Vrana	1.6	1	0.45	0	22%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.6	3	0.30	0	9%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.5	3	0.32	0	9%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.4	4	0.29	0	7%	0
NSH C. Sissons	1.4	1	0.42	0	15%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.3	1	0.27	0	14%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	1.3	1	0.48	0	18%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.3	1	0.27	0	11%	0
NSH J. Barron	1.2	2	0.29	0	10%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.2	1	0.26	0	5%	0
NSH Z. L'Heureux	1.2	0	0.29	0	11%	0
NSH J. Oesterle	1.0	2	0.22	0	4%	0
ANA B. Leason	1.0	1	0.23	1	10%	0
ANA O. Kylington	1.0	0	0.27	0	8%	0
ANA D. Helleson	0.9	1	0.22	1	8%	0
NSH S. Stastney	0.8	1	0.22	0	5%	0
ANA J. Harkins	0.8	0	0.16	0	7%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	0.8	3	0.26	1	6%	0
ANA I. Lundestrom	0.7	0	0.22	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.