Game Recap: ANA 5, NSH 4, April 16, 2026

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Game Recap

ANA5

FinalThu, Apr 16, 2026Every game that night

NSH4

ANA beat NSH 5-4, and the chances backed it up: 5.07 expected goals to 1.85. ANA outshot NSH 40 to 21. S. Stamkos led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. LaCombe had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. V. Husso stopped 17 of 21.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
ANA	2	1	2	5
NSH	2	2	0	4

1st 1:36ANAC. Gauthier0.12 xG
1st 10:09NSHS. Stamkos0.16 xG
1st 15:55NSHF. ForsbergPP0.08 xG
1st 19:39ANAJ. LaCombe0.03 xG
2nd 4:33ANAA. Killorn0.02 xG
2nd 14:37NSHF. Forsberg0.20 xG
2nd 15:23NSHS. StamkosPP0.14 xG
3rd 4:17ANAT. Luneau0.36 xG
3rd 17:06ANAT. TerryPP0.48 xG

Team Stats

ANANSH

40Shots on goal21

5.07Expected goals1.85

79Shot attempts42

295v5 shots on goal15

1/6Power play2/3

16Hits10

11Blocked shots16

6Penalty minutes12

12Giveaways14

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 5.07 xGNSH 1.85 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA40 on goal, 5 scored

NSH21 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Granlund	C	0	3	3	3	0	1	+1	0	18:08	4:07
A. Killorn	LW	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	19:39	4:42
L. Carlsson	C	0	1	1	7	0	1	0	0	18:32	5:22
C. Gauthier	LW	1	0	1	6	2	0	+1	2	18:19	5:46
T. Terry	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	18:15	5:37
R. Poehling	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	17:36	3:40
M. McTavish	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	16:23	5:32
J. Viel	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	2	11:58	0:11
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	16:42	5:06
B. Sennecke	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	10:58	2:00
T. Washe	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	10:30	0:00
J. Carlson	D	0	2	2	0	1	0	+1	2	20:24	5:40
J. LaCombe	D	1	0	1	6	0	0	0	0	26:27	6:56
J. Trouba	D	0	1	1	0	2	1	-1	0	22:56	0:35
T. Luneau	D	1	0	1	2	1	1	+2	0	11:37	0:00
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	15:47	0:01
T. Hinds	D	0	0	0	1	3	3	+2	0	13:41	0:00
I. Moore	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	8:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
V. Husso	21	17	4	.810	59:56	Win
L. Dostal	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Stamkos	C	2	1	3	3	0	2	+1	0	16:49	3:16
F. Forsberg	LW	2	0	2	6	0	0	0	0	17:01	3:18
L. Evangelista	RW	0	2	2	3	2	0	-1	0	14:22	2:56
R. O'Reilly	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	21:55	2:56
C. O'Hara	RW	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	11:23	0:22
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	16:46	0:42
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	-2	2	15:31	0:00
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	4	15:11	0:00
J. Kemell	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	13:42	0:20
M. Wood	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	12:16	0:42
O. Wiesblatt	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	9:43	0:00
R. Schaefer	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	8:19	0:00
R. Ufko	D	0	2	2	0	0	1	-1	2	20:29	2:52
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	21:40	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	2	20:40	0:46
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	18:37	0:00
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	18:32	0:00
K. Gravel	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	16:36	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	40	35	5	.875	59:25	Loss
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

ANA

Line 1L. Carlsson13:10T. Terry12:38C. Kreider11:36

Line 2R. Poehling11:29C. Gauthier12:29M. McTavish10:51

Line 3A. Killorn12:41M. Granlund12:11J. Viel11:36

Line 4B. Sennecke8:58T. Washe8:30

Pair 1J. LaCombe19:27J. Trouba19:15

Pair 2J. Carlson13:32P. Mintyukov13:25

Pair 3T. Hinds11:49T. Luneau11:37

NSH

Line 1S. Stamkos12:58R. O'Reilly13:01C. O'Hara11:01

Line 2L. Evangelista10:51M. Wood11:08F. Forsberg13:08

Line 3F. Svechkov12:35J. Kemell10:37Z. L'Heureux9:17

Line 4T. Jost10:42O. Wiesblatt9:43R. Schaefer8:19

Pair 1K. Gravel15:52R. Ufko16:41

Pair 2B. Skjei13:53N. Perbix14:34

Pair 3J. Barron14:56A. Wilsby14:04

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 3.4, NSH 3.3	ANA 5, NSH 4
Total goals	6.6	9
Shots on goal	ANA 31.1, NSH 28.3	ANA 40, NSH 21
Win chance	ANA 51%	ANA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
ANA C. Gauthier	3.1	6	0.71	1	29%	1
NSH F. Forsberg	3.0	6	1.07	2	39%	2
NSH S. Stamkos	2.7	3	0.95	3	39%	2
ANA T. Terry	2.6	4	0.81	1	26%	1
ANA B. Sennecke	2.6	1	0.72	0	23%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	2.6	7	0.80	1	27%	0
ANA M. Granlund	2.1	3	0.75	3	22%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.1	0	0.97	1	29%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.0	3	0.61	2	17%	0
ANA J. Carlson	2.0	0	0.67	2	13%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.9	3	0.52	1	22%	1
ANA C. Kreider	1.9	1	0.63	0	30%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.8	0	0.32	1	8%	0
ANA M. McTavish	1.8	3	0.49	1	19%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.7	0	0.35	0	14%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.6	6	0.57	1	10%	1
NSH B. Skjei	1.5	1	0.50	0	12%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.4	1	0.44	0	20%	0
ANA R. Poehling	1.4	2	0.48	1	16%	0
NSH Z. L'Heureux	1.4	0	0.27	0	13%	0
ANA J. Viel	1.3	1	0.20	1	9%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.3	0	0.36	0	4%	0
ANA T. Hinds	1.2	1	0.13	0	4%	0
ANA T. Luneau	1.2	2	0.22	1	6%	1
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.1	0	0.30	0	8%	0
NSH K. Gravel	1.1	1	0.15	0	4%	0
NSH J. Kemell	1.0	1	0.23	0	10%	0
ANA T. Washe	1.0	0	0.17	0	9%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.0	2	0.31	0	11%	0
NSH N. Perbix	1.0	0	0.27	0	6%	0
NSH J. Barron	0.9	0	0.28	0	8%	0
NSH R. Ufko	0.8	0	0.52	2	8%	0
ANA I. Moore	0.7	0	0.14	0	4%	0
NSH R. Schaefer	0.7	1	0.18	0	11%	0
NSH O. Wiesblatt	0.6	1	0.17	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.