Game Recap: ANA 4, NYR 1, December 15, 2025

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Game Recap

ANA4

FinalMon, Dec 15, 2025Every game that night

NYR1

ANA beat NYR 4-1, with the chances close: 3.25 expected goals to 2.73. C. Gauthier led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. LaCombe had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. L. Dostal stopped 26 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
ANA	0	1	3	4
NYR	0	1	0	1

2nd 7:18ANAJ. LaCombeSH0.36 xG
2nd 16:18NYRM. Robertson0.03 xG
3rd 5:51ANAC. GauthierPP0.08 xG
3rd 19:38ANAC. GauthierEN0.94 xG
3rd 19:57ANAP. Mintyukov0.16 xG

Team Stats

ANANYR

26Shots on goal27

3.25Expected goals2.73

52Shot attempts64

155v5 shots on goal17

1/3Power play0/4

25Hits20

14Blocked shots12

6Penalty minutes6

15Giveaways13

7Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 3.25 xGNYR 2.73 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA24 on goal, 4 scored

NYR27 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Gauthier	LW	2	0	2	5	2	0	+1	0	17:34	1:41
R. Poehling	C	0	2	2	1	1	0	+2	0	11:37	0:00
L. Carlsson	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	19:49	4:09
A. Killorn	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	14:56	0:00
B. Sennecke	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	14:44	1:28
R. Johnston	LW	0	1	1	0	7	2	+1	0	8:40	0:00
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	18:24	4:26
T. Terry	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	17:55	4:22
M. Granlund	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	16:29	4:19
F. Vatrano	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	14:23	0:00
M. McTavish	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:21	1:27
R. Strome	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	9:16	1:22
J. LaCombe	D	1	0	1	5	1	0	+1	0	28:23	4:17
J. Trouba	D	0	1	1	3	2	3	+1	2	23:22	0:02
P. Mintyukov	D	1	0	1	1	1	4	+1	0	20:05	0:00
O. Zellweger	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	2	11:27	1:32
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	20:49	0:00
I. Moore	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	10:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	27	26	1	.963	59:48	Win
V. Husso	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Panarin	LW	0	1	1	5	0	0	-1	0	22:02	4:56
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	17:08	4:24
V. Trocheck	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	22:48	4:26
J. Miller	C	0	0	0	4	1	1	-2	0	21:46	4:46
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	4	4	1	-2	0	17:49	4:14
N. Laba	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:43	2:51
C. Sheary	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:13	2:53
J. Brodzinski	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:12	2:32
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	11:27	2:06
B. Berard	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	10:24	0:01
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:12	0:08
M. Rempe	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	-1	0	9:01	1:08
M. Robertson	D	1	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	17:27	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	25:12	2:29
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	4	1	4	+1	0	22:10	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	15:55	0:08
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	14:49	0:18
U. Vaakanainen	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	11:29	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	25	22	3	.880	59:13	Loss
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

ANA

Line 1M. McTavish11:54B. Sennecke13:16C. Kreider12:12

Line 2C. Gauthier12:40L. Carlsson13:38A. Killorn11:40

Line 3M. Granlund10:32T. Terry12:56F. Vatrano12:11

Line 4R. Johnston8:35R. Poehling8:35R. Strome7:42

Pair 1J. LaCombe19:14J. Trouba19:13

Pair 2R. Gudas17:50P. Mintyukov16:35

Pair 3O. Zellweger9:55I. Moore9:12

NYR

Line 1V. Trocheck14:46A. Panarin16:20A. Lafrenière11:58

Line 2J. Brodzinski10:40N. Laba12:16B. Berard10:23

Line 3C. Sheary11:21W. Cuylle10:15J. Miller13:18

Line 4S. Carrick9:18T. Raddysh8:38M. Rempe7:41

Pair 1V. Gavrikov19:04B. Schneider18:30

Pair 2C. Soucy14:11W. Borgen12:52

Pair 3U. Vaakanainen11:29M. Robertson14:50

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 2.8, NYR 3.2	ANA 4, NYR 1
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	ANA 29.3, NYR 28.9	ANA 26, NYR 27
Win chance	NYR 56%	ANA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYR A. Panarin	3.2	5	1.30	1	38%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	3.1	5	0.74	2	26%	2
ANA T. Terry	2.5	0	0.79	0	25%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.5	2	0.97	0	31%	0
ANA C. Kreider	2.5	0	0.68	0	34%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.4	4	1.15	0	34%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	2.4	3	0.85	1	27%	0
ANA B. Sennecke	2.1	1	0.71	1	21%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	2.1	4	0.60	0	24%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.1	1	0.65	1	25%	0
ANA M. McTavish	2.0	0	0.55	0	20%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.9	5	0.51	1	11%	1
ANA F. Vatrano	1.8	2	0.34	0	17%	0
ANA M. Granlund	1.8	1	0.64	0	17%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.7	2	0.48	0	10%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.7	0	0.31	1	8%	0
NYR C. Sheary	1.7	1	0.43	0	16%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.6	3	0.27	1	6%	0
NYR B. Berard	1.6	0	0.26	0	14%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.5	4	0.33	0	8%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.5	1	0.37	1	16%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.4	0	0.35	0	15%	0
NYR M. Robertson	1.3	1	0.25	1	5%	1
NYR N. Laba	1.3	0	0.34	0	16%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.3	1	0.27	0	6%	0
ANA R. Poehling	1.2	1	0.36	2	13%	0
NYR C. Soucy	1.1	0	0.25	0	8%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.1	0	0.31	0	9%	0
ANA I. Moore	1.1	1	0.22	0	6%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.0	2	0.17	0	3%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.0	1	0.25	1	5%	1
NYR S. Carrick	0.9	0	0.19	0	8%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	0.9	1	0.23	0	10%	0
NYR M. Rempe	0.9	1	0.21	0	10%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	0.8	0	0.22	0	2%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.6	0	0.15	1	5%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.