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Game Recap
ANA2
FinalMon, Oct 19, 2026Every game that night
NYR5

NYR beat ANA 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.41 expected goals to 3.13. O. Bjorkstrand led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). D. Garand stopped 29 of 31.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
ANA0022
NYR1315
  1. 1st 1:18NYRS. Durzi0.01 xG
  2. 2nd 4:38NYRJ. MillerPP0.13 xG
  3. 2nd 10:17NYRG. Perreault0.38 xG
  4. 2nd 13:14NYRO. Bjorkstrand0.27 xG
  5. 3rd 3:26NYRO. Bjorkstrand0.22 xG
  6. 3rd 18:51ANAN. Jensen0.19 xG
  7. 3rd 19:27ANAA. Greer0.07 xG

Team Stats

ANANYR
31Shots on goal30
3.13Expected goals4.41
61Shot attempts55
235v5 shots on goal25
0/3Power play1/4
29Hits15
13Blocked shots17
8Penalty minutes6
13Giveaways19
4Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 3.13 xGNYR 4.41 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdNYR goal, 1:18NYR goal, 4:38NYR goal, 10:17NYR goal, 13:14NYR goal, 3:26ANA goal, 18:51ANA goal, 19:27

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA30 on goal, 2 scored
NYR30 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. KillornLW0111300018:442:01
F. VatranoRW011221+1014:361:05
A. GreerLW101440+1013:530:00
R. McQueenC000231-1016:251:12
C. GauthierLW000510-2016:124:12
M. GranlundC000200-2016:084:17
T. WasheC000330+1015:380:02
B. SenneckeRW000420-2015:374:14
L. CarlssonC000200-1015:093:22
J. CaulfieldRW000140+1013:250:00
N. KlepovRW000001-1412:551:15
J. MalottLW000030-129:470:00
P. MintyukovD0110010019:170:03
N. JensenD1011140218:120:00
T. LuneauD0001010020:471:13
J. LaCombeD000101-2020:454:19
T. HindsD000222-1020:160:00
N. WarrenD000011-1015:280:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
V. Husso30255.83360:00Loss
L. Dostal000–0:00

NYR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. LafrenièreLW022301+1017:004:18
O. BjorkstrandRW202300+1012:081:08
J. MillerC1012000019:094:26
M. ZibanejadC011100+1018:424:21
P. DorofeyevRW0115000017:574:11
G. PerreaultRW101400+1015:401:59
T. KartyeLW011211+1014:000:00
T. RaddyshRW011110+2010:010:00
W. CuylleLW000360-1017:041:03
N. LabaC000121-1015:080:00
E. TolvanenRW000111-1213:490:30
J. DowlingC000001+208:560:00
A. FoxD011003-1021:484:38
B. SchneiderD0112110019:010:00
S. DurziD101104+3017:210:51
V. GavrikovD000113-1021:160:00
M. PetterssonD000010+3019:020:00
A. SmitsD0000110415:580:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Garand31292.93560:00Win
S. Martin000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

ANA

Line 1R. McQueen14:30C. Gauthier12:00A. Greer13:53
Line 2M. Granlund10:36B. Sennecke11:23F. Vatrano12:44
Line 3A. Killorn13:47L. Carlsson11:47N. Klepov11:40
Line 4J. Caulfield11:58J. Malott9:37T. Washe11:37
Pair 1T. Hinds17:55T. Luneau19:01
Pair 2N. Jensen16:34P. Mintyukov16:58
Pair 3J. LaCombe13:24N. Warren13:11

NYR

Line 1J. Miller14:06P. Dorofeyev13:46T. Kartye12:01
Line 2M. Zibanejad14:04G. Perreault13:24A. Lafrenière12:41
Line 3E. Tolvanen12:00N. Laba11:25W. Cuylle12:12
Line 4O. Bjorkstrand11:00T. Raddysh10:01J. Dowling8:56
Pair 1V. Gavrikov17:22A. Fox16:21
Pair 2M. Pettersson16:56S. Durzi15:15
Pair 3B. Schneider15:07A. Smits15:58

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 15 overs hit (60%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
ANA C. Gauthier3.5+115-1405Over
NYR A. Lafrenière2.5+150-1603Over
ANA B. Sennecke2.5+102-1204Over
ANA L. Carlsson2.5+150-1902Under
NYR M. Zibanejad2.5+110-1201Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev2.5-140+1205Over
NYR A. Fox1.5-102-1180Under
ANA A. Killorn1.5-120+1001Under
NYR E. Tolvanen1.5+108-1301Under
NYR G. Perreault1.5-128+1054Over
ANA J. LaCombe1.5-105-1201Under
NYR J. Miller1.5-155+1252Over
ANA M. Granlund1.5-120+1052Over
ANA R. McQueen1.5-205–2Over
NYR W. Cuylle1.5-145+1303Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreANA 2.9, NYR 3.0ANA 2, NYR 5
Total goals6.07
Shots on goalANA 28.6, NYR 24.7ANA 31, NYR 30
Win chanceNYR 52%NYR won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
NYR P. Dorofeyev2.850.79135%0
ANA B. Sennecke2.840.83030%0
ANA C. Gauthier2.750.67026%0
ANA L. Carlsson2.520.84028%0
NYR M. Zibanejad2.511.11135%0
NYR A. Lafrenière2.230.90231%0
ANA F. Vatrano2.020.42120%0
NYR J. Miller2.021.05131%1
ANA M. Granlund1.920.79024%0
NYR W. Cuylle1.930.53022%0
ANA A. Killorn1.810.47121%0
ANA J. LaCombe1.810.65011%0
NYR G. Perreault1.740.60123%1
NYR A. Fox1.600.95115%0
ANA A. Greer1.640.39116%1
NYR E. Tolvanen1.410.40017%0
NYR T. Kartye1.320.51119%0
NYR V. Gavrikov1.310.3909%0
NYR S. Durzi1.310.47110%1
NYR O. Bjorkstrand1.230.35214%2
ANA T. Luneau1.210.2706%0
ANA T. Hinds1.120.1103%0
NYR B. Schneider1.120.2516%0
ANA N. Warren1.100.2504%0
ANA P. Mintyukov1.100.2216%0
ANA J. Caulfield1.010.34012%0
NYR N. Laba1.010.37014%0
ANA J. Malott0.900.1706%0
ANA T. Washe0.930.25012%0
NYR M. Pettersson0.800.3205%0
NYR T. Raddysh0.810.27110%0
ANA N. Jensen0.710.2214%1
NYR A. Smits0.700.1304%0
NYR J. Dowling0.600.1406%0

Shots on goal: 22 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.