Game Recap: ANA 1, OTT 5, December 11, 2024

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Game Recap

ANA1

FinalWed, Dec 11, 2024Every game that night

OTT5

OTT beat ANA 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.94 expected goals to 1.98. D. Batherson scored three for OTT. B. Leason had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. L. Ullmark stopped 31 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
ANA	0	0	1	1
OTT	3	1	1	5

1st 2:55OTTN. Gregor0.37 xG
1st 11:15OTTD. BathersonPP0.17 xG
1st 18:25OTTD. BathersonPP0.47 xG
2nd 10:30OTTD. Batherson0.01 xG
3rd 8:58OTTB. TkachukPP0.18 xG
3rd 12:42ANAC. Gauthier0.13 xG

Team Stats

ANAOTT

32Shots on goal34

1.98Expected goals3.94

53Shot attempts62

225v5 shots on goal22

0/5Power play3/5

37Hits23

15Blocked shots12

25Penalty minutes15

14Giveaways12

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 1.98 xGOTT 3.94 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA32 on goal, 1 scored

OTT32 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Gauthier	LW	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	18:30	4:15
M. McTavish	C	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	0	17:41	4:03
T. Terry	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	19:13	5:06
R. Strome	C	0	0	0	5	0	1	-1	0	18:55	5:59
F. Vatrano	RW	0	0	0	3	5	1	-1	0	18:50	5:11
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	16:39	5:00
B. Leason	RW	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	2	15:37	3:17
B. McGinn	LW	0	0	0	1	5	1	+1	0	15:11	0:00
L. Carlsson	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:35	4:22
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	12:09	0:00
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	10:10	0:00
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	12	6:28	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	20:52	0:00
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	+1	2	20:26	4:22
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	4	2	1	0	0	18:03	4:35
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	17:49	0:05
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	4	0	3	-2	0	17:19	0:05
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	7	16:32	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	34	29	5	.853	59:22	Loss
L. Dostal	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Batherson	RW	3	1	4	5	2	0	0	0	15:33	3:42
T. Stützle	C	0	2	2	0	1	0	0	0	16:14	3:45
B. Tkachuk	LW	1	1	2	3	2	0	0	0	16:07	3:50
J. Norris	C	0	1	1	3	0	2	+1	2	17:54	2:23
N. Gregor	LW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	8:55	0:00
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	5:41	0:00
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	2	2	2	-1	0	19:29	0:46
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	2	17:43	3:00
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	16:06	0:00
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	13:53	1:28
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	0	13:36	0:00
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	+1	2	13:13	1:33
N. Jensen	D	0	1	1	1	0	4	+1	0	24:44	0:14
J. Sanderson	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	21:33	4:05
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	+1	2	23:55	1:44
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	16:16	0:00
T. Hamonic	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	15:13	0:00
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	32	31	1	.969	60:00	Win
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 2.7, OTT 3.5	ANA 1, OTT 5
Total goals	6.2	6
Shots on goal	ANA 25.6, OTT 34.4	ANA 32, OTT 34
Win chance	OTT 62%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	4.4	3	1.07	2	37%	1
ANA F. Vatrano	3.3	3	0.69	0	31%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.6	5	0.98	4	30%	3
ANA T. Terry	2.5	2	0.86	0	30%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.5	0	1.16	2	32%	0
OTT T. Chabot	2.4	3	0.60	0	13%	0
OTT J. Norris	2.3	3	0.77	1	35%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.2	2	0.54	1	10%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.1	2	0.50	0	20%	0
OTT C. Giroux	2.1	2	0.82	0	27%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.9	0	0.59	0	24%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.7	5	0.56	0	19%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.7	4	0.39	0	9%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	1.7	4	0.43	1	14%	1
ANA M. McTavish	1.7	1	0.56	1	21%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.6	4	0.32	0	13%	0
OTT A. Gaudette	1.6	1	0.43	0	21%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.6	3	0.44	0	21%	0
OTT N. Gregor	1.5	1	0.25	1	12%	1
ANA B. Leason	1.5	5	0.39	0	16%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.5	0	0.31	0	6%	0
OTT T. Hamonic	1.5	0	0.21	0	7%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	1.4	0	0.45	0	18%	0
OTT N. Jensen	1.3	1	0.33	1	6%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.3	2	0.37	0	15%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.2	1	0.41	0	8%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.1	2	0.16	0	4%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.1	1	0.25	0	5%	0
ANA C. Fowler	1.0	4	0.46	0	8%	0
ANA I. Lundestrom	1.0	0	0.29	0	14%	0
ANA B. McGinn	1.0	1	0.25	0	13%	0
ANA B. Dumoulin	1.0	0	0.27	0	5%	0
ANA J. Harkins	0.8	1	0.18	0	8%	0
OTT J. Bernard-Docker	0.8	0	0.18	0	5%	0
OTT Z. Ostapchuk	0.6	0	0.13	1	8%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.5	0	0.14	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.