PIT beat ANA 2-1 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.18 expected goals to 1.68. PIT outshot ANA 45 to 23. S. Crosby led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). E. Karlsson had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. A. Nedeljkovic stopped 22 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 15:50ANAA. Killorn0.13 xG
- 3rd 1:47PITS. Crosby0.06 xG
- OT 2:35PITS. Crosby0.24 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
ANA 1.68 xGPIT 4.18 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Killorn | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:31 | 1:55 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 14:44 | 1:51 |
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:05 | 1:49 |
| T. Terry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:05 | 2:08 |
| R. Fabbri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:07 | 0:00 |
| L. Carlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:51 | 2:11 |
| F. Vatrano | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 15:49 | 2:06 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:04 | 0:00 |
| M. McTavish | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:19 | 2:12 |
| R. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:40 | 1:39 |
| B. McGinn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:07 | 0:00 |
| B. Leason | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:38 | 0:00 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 22:37 | 0:00 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:40 | 0:00 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:30 | 0:00 |
| O. Zellweger | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:19 | 2:14 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:01 | 0:03 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 15:38 | 1:52 |
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Crosby | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 22:31 | 3:30 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:23 | 0:00 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:16 | 3:42 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:53 | 3:57 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:38 | 2:05 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:49 | 0:00 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:37 | 2:17 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:05 | 0:00 |
| V. Puustinen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:45 | 2:42 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:14 | 0:00 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:00 | 2:28 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5:39 | 0:00 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:44 | 3:05 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:30 | 3:22 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:50 | 0:13 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:19 | 2:39 |
| J. St. Ivany | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:32 | 0:00 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:00 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Nedeljkovic | 23 | 22 | 1 | .957 | 62:35 | Win |
| J. Blomqvist | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ANA 2.8, PIT 3.7 | ANA 1, PIT 2 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | ANA 27.5, PIT 35.8 | ANA 23, PIT 45 |
| Win chance | PIT 64% | PIT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT S. Crosby | 3.3 | 6 | 1.28 | 2 | 37% | 2 |
| ANA F. Vatrano | 2.8 | 0 | 0.58 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.7 | 6 | 0.73 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 2.6 | 6 | 1.08 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.6 | 6 | 0.85 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 2.3 | 4 | 0.71 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT D. O'Connor | 2.3 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.2 | 2 | 0.75 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| PIT M. Bunting | 2.2 | 5 | 0.66 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| ANA T. Zegras | 2.1 | 3 | 0.62 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 2.1 | 5 | 0.40 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT L. Eller | 2.0 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PIT A. Beauvillier | 2.0 | 3 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 1.9 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.9 | 2 | 0.57 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| PIT C. Glass | 1.8 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 1.8 | 0 | 0.57 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| ANA O. Zellweger | 1.7 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.6 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| ANA R. Fabbri | 1.6 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| PIT M. Pettersson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 1.4 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT V. Puustinen | 1.4 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.3 | 1 | 0.34 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 1.3 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA C. Fowler | 1.2 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.2 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.1 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT R. Graves | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA B. Leason | 1.1 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| ANA B. McGinn | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT J. Ivany | 1.0 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA B. Dumoulin | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA I. Lundestrom | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 0.8 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 14 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.