ANA beat SEA 5-2 despite fewer good chances: 3.40 expected goals to 5.12. SEA outshot ANA 44 to 33. T. Zegras led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Beniers had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. J. Gibson stopped 42 of 44.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| SEA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 8:23ANAF. Vatrano0.18 xG
- 1st 12:43ANAB. Leason0.01 xG
- 1st 16:34SEAE. Tolvanen0.19 xG
- 2nd 8:58SEAO. Bjorkstrand0.05 xG
- 2nd 10:02ANAA. Killorn0.21 xG
- 2nd 19:23ANAC. GauthierPP0.08 xG
- 3rd 13:55ANAT. Zegras0.15 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
ANA 3.40 xGSEA 5.12 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Killorn | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:18 | 1:42 |
| T. Zegras | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:34 | 2:03 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:33 | 1:47 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:00 | 0:00 |
| F. Vatrano | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:48 | 1:58 |
| B. Leason | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:29 | 1:47 |
| T. Terry | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:13 | 1:57 |
| M. McTavish | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:32 | 1:48 |
| R. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:37 | 1:58 |
| J. Harkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:08 | 0:07 |
| S. Colangelo | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:22 | 0:07 |
| R. Johnston | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 9:53 | 0:07 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 24:35 | 1:22 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:49 | 0:07 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 20:47 | 0:00 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:35 | 0:00 |
| D. Helleson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:22 | 0:07 |
| O. Zellweger | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:25 | 2:23 |
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:22 | 5:43 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:46 | 0:21 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:42 | 3:53 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:42 | 0:21 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:37 | 0:00 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:11 | 6:23 |
| J. McCann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:55 | 5:59 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:59 | 6:28 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 18:49 | 7:08 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:04 | 3:32 |
| D. Sprong | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 10:06 | 3:43 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 9:22 | 0:00 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 27:56 | 8:06 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:38 | 2:06 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:35 | 0:04 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 17:22 | 0:10 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:05 | 0:00 |
| J. Mahura | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:54 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Daccord | 33 | 28 | 5 | .848 | 55:03 | Loss |
| P. Grubauer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ANA 2.5, SEA 3.3 | ANA 5, SEA 2 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | ANA 24.9, SEA 31.5 | ANA 33, SEA 44 |
| Win chance | SEA 63% | ANA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA J. McCann | 3.0 | 2 | 1.03 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| ANA F. Vatrano | 2.9 | 5 | 0.58 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.8 | 6 | 0.69 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.4 | 5 | 0.69 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| SEA D. Sprong | 2.4 | 0 | 0.62 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| SEA O. Bjorkstrand | 2.2 | 4 | 0.69 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.1 | 1 | 0.69 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| ANA T. Zegras | 2.0 | 3 | 0.58 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.8 | 7 | 0.63 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 1.8 | 3 | 0.38 | 2 | 12% | 1 |
| SEA A. Burakovsky | 1.8 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.7 | 3 | 0.29 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SEA Y. Gourde | 1.7 | 2 | 0.54 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 1.7 | 2 | 0.53 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.7 | 2 | 0.51 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.6 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| ANA S. Colangelo | 1.6 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| ANA O. Zellweger | 1.6 | 3 | 0.36 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.5 | 3 | 0.42 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| SEA B. Tanev | 1.5 | 2 | 0.40 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 1.4 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.82 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 1.3 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA B. Leason | 1.3 | 4 | 0.34 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 1.3 | 0 | 0.33 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| SEA T. Kartye | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.1 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA B. Dumoulin | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA W. Borgen | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA J. Mahura | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA I. Lundestrom | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 0.9 | 3 | 0.34 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| ANA D. Helleson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 0.8 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA J. Harkins | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA R. Johnston | 0.6 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.6 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.