Game Recap: ANA 6, SEA 4, January 28, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

ANA6

FinalTue, Jan 28, 2025Every game that night

SEA4

ANA beat SEA 6-4, with the chances close: 2.70 expected goals to 2.53. F. Vatrano led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). V. Dunn had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. L. Dostal stopped 26 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
ANA	2	3	1	6
SEA	3	0	1	4

1st 1:23ANAT. Terry0.20 xG
1st 6:43SEAE. Tolvanen0.09 xG
1st 8:20SEAM. Stephens0.10 xG
1st 11:59ANAC. Gauthier0.11 xG
1st 14:01SEAJ. Schwartz0.11 xG
2nd 1:04ANAM. McTavish0.10 xG
2nd 5:39ANAR. Fabbri0.10 xG
2nd 7:58ANAJ. LaCombe0.02 xG
3rd 6:15SEAS. WrightPP0.03 xG
3rd 18:44ANAF. VatranoEN0.70 xG

Team Stats

ANASEA

23Shots on goal30

2.70Expected goals2.53

45Shot attempts64

175v5 shots on goal19

0/2Power play1/3

16Hits12

19Blocked shots11

10Penalty minutes8

9Giveaways11

1Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 2.70 xGSEA 2.53 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA22 on goal, 6 scored

SEA29 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Strome	C	0	2	2	0	0	0	+2	2	16:28	2:21
M. McTavish	C	1	1	2	1	0	0	+1	2	16:11	2:21
F. Vatrano	RW	1	1	2	5	0	0	+3	0	16:00	2:25
R. Fabbri	C	1	1	2	1	1	1	+1	0	15:05	0:00
T. Terry	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+2	0	18:11	2:57
C. Gauthier	LW	1	0	1	3	0	3	+1	0	15:33	1:35
I. Lundestrom	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	13:28	0:00
B. Leason	RW	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0	11:49	0:00
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:11	1:39
T. Zegras	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	13:34	1:39
L. Carlsson	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:31	1:03
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:26	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	1	1	2	2	0	1	+4	6	21:44	2:40
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	0	4	3	-1	0	20:57	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	0	20:56	0:00
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	2	5	5	+3	0	19:52	0:00
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	17:32	1:20
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	15:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	30	26	4	.867	60:00	Win
J. Gibson	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Beniers	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	22:23	3:56
J. Schwartz	LW	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	2	21:41	3:56
K. Kakko	RW	0	1	1	0	1	2	-1	0	20:38	1:31
J. McCann	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	-2	2	14:05	1:31
S. Wright	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	-2	0	12:28	1:31
E. Tolvanen	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	11:26	0:23
M. Stephens	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	9:29	0:00
T. Kartye	LW	0	1	1	1	2	1	-1	2	6:16	0:00
C. Stephenson	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	-3	0	20:55	3:56
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	14:41	3:51
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:55	1:03
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	12:24	0:00
B. Montour	D	0	2	2	4	0	0	0	0	23:37	1:31
J. Oleksiak	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	-2	0	13:43	0:00
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	8	0	1	-2	0	24:03	3:56
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	23:23	0:05
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	17:59	0:05
J. Mahura	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	2	10:57	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Grubauer	22	17	5	.773	57:57	Loss
J. Daccord	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 2.8, SEA 3.0	ANA 6, SEA 4
Total goals	5.7	10
Shots on goal	ANA 27.7, SEA 29.6	ANA 23, SEA 30
Win chance	SEA 53%	ANA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
ANA F. Vatrano	3.0	5	0.61	2	28%	1
SEA B. Montour	2.8	4	0.53	2	15%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	2.6	1	0.67	1	27%	1
SEA J. McCann	2.5	2	0.81	1	31%	0
SEA O. Bjorkstrand	2.4	2	0.71	0	25%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.3	1	0.80	1	28%	1
SEA V. Dunn	2.2	8	0.68	0	16%	0
ANA M. McTavish	2.1	1	0.59	2	22%	1
SEA M. Beniers	2.0	2	0.66	1	24%	0
ANA T. Zegras	1.9	1	0.59	0	20%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.9	0	0.58	1	22%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.8	1	0.57	0	23%	0
SEA A. Burakovsky	1.8	1	0.50	0	18%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	1.8	3	0.39	1	13%	1
ANA J. LaCombe	1.8	2	0.41	2	10%	1
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.7	1	0.45	1	20%	1
ANA R. Strome	1.7	0	0.56	2	17%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.6	0	0.29	0	6%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.5	1	0.26	0	7%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.4	2	0.27	0	5%	0
ANA R. Fabbri	1.4	1	0.43	2	21%	1
ANA L. Carlsson	1.3	1	0.38	0	16%	0
SEA B. Tanev	1.2	0	0.31	0	15%	0
ANA B. Leason	1.2	3	0.30	1	13%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.2	2	0.57	1	20%	1
SEA R. Evans	1.2	1	0.38	0	8%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.2	3	0.71	0	20%	0
SEA J. Mahura	1.2	0	0.20	0	3%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.1	0	0.30	0	6%	0
ANA D. Helleson	1.1	0	0.27	0	7%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	1.0	0	0.20	1	5%	0
ANA J. Harkins	1.0	0	0.20	0	9%	0
ANA B. Dumoulin	0.9	2	0.24	0	4%	0
SEA T. Kartye	0.9	1	0.18	1	10%	0
ANA I. Lundestrom	0.8	0	0.22	1	11%	0
SEA M. Stephens	0.7	1	0.17	1	6%	1

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.