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Game Recap
ANA2
SJS0
ANA beat SJS 2-0 despite fewer good chances: 2.04 expected goals to 3.20. M. Granlund had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. L. Dostal stopped 30 of 30.
Team Stats
ANASJS
30Shots on goal30
2.04Expected goals3.20
49Shot attempts65
225v5 shots on goal24
0/5Power play0/3
16Hits17
18Blocked shots10
8Penalty minutes12
15Giveaways13
5Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
ANA 2.04 xGSJS 3.20 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Zegras | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:29 | 5:52 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:06 | 0:00 |
| B. Leason | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:42 | 0:00 |
| B. McGinn | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 10:50 | 0:00 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:57 | 5:57 |
| F. Vatrano | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:54 | 6:01 |
| R. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:37 | 5:58 |
| L. Carlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:18 | 4:10 |
| M. McTavish | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 15:28 | 4:02 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:49 | 3:58 |
| T. Terry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:19 | 3:54 |
| R. Fabbri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:42 | 0:00 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 21:15 | 0:00 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25:00 | 5:17 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:06 | 0:00 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:05 | 0:00 |
| T. Luneau | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 14:50 | 0:08 |
| O. Zellweger | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:43 | 4:43 |
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24:27 | 6:00 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 24:17 | 5:55 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:57 | 6:00 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:14 | 5:48 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:30 | 0:00 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:22 | 0:00 |
| W. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 13:05 | 0:00 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:50 | 0:00 |
| K. Kostin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 11:44 | 0:00 |
| T. Dellandrea | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:04 | 0:00 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8:58 | 0:00 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:49 | 0:00 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 24:21 | 4:57 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:26 | 0:00 |
| J. Rutta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:38 | 0:05 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:29 | 0:12 |
| H. Thrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:45 | 1:03 |
| M. Benning | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:05 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Vanecek | 29 | 28 | 1 | .966 | 57:59 | Loss |
| M. Blackwood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ANA 3.2, SJS 3.0 | ANA 2, SJS 0 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 2 |
| Shots on goal | ANA 29.3, SJS 28.6 | ANA 30, SJS 30 |
| Win chance | ANA 53% | ANA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA F. Vatrano | 3.5 | 3 | 0.76 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.9 | 1 | 0.79 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| SJS F. Zetterlund | 2.8 | 2 | 0.65 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.5 | 2 | 0.87 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 2.5 | 1 | 0.76 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| ANA T. Zegras | 2.4 | 2 | 0.77 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| SJS M. Granlund | 2.3 | 5 | 0.94 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 2.2 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| SJS J. Walman | 2.1 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 2.0 | 3 | 0.74 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 1.8 | 0 | 0.57 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 1.8 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| ANA T. Luneau | 1.8 | 4 | 0.43 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.7 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| ANA O. Zellweger | 1.7 | 4 | 0.44 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SJS L. Kunin | 1.6 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| ANA R. Fabbri | 1.6 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.6 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA C. Fowler | 1.6 | 0 | 0.61 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.6 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS K. Kostin | 1.4 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| SJS C. Ceci | 1.4 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS J. Rutta | 1.4 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA B. Leason | 1.3 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS N. Sturm | 1.3 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SJS C. Grundstrom | 1.2 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 1.2 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.2 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| ANA B. Dumoulin | 1.1 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA B. McGinn | 1.1 | 2 | 0.23 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| ANA I. Lundestrom | 1.1 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| SJS H. Thrun | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 1.0 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS M. Benning | 0.9 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.