Game Recap: ANA 2, STL 6, January 9, 2025

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Game Recap

ANA2

FinalThu, Jan 9, 2025Every game that night

STL6

STL beat ANA 6-2, with the chances close: 2.92 expected goals to 2.23. STL outshot ANA 34 to 23. R. Thomas led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). R. Thomas had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. J. Hofer stopped 21 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
ANA	1	1	0	2
STL	4	2	0	6

1st 2:45STLR. Thomas0.21 xG
1st 4:31STLT. Tucker0.02 xG
1st 6:40STLJ. Kyrou0.27 xG
1st 13:55STLD. Holloway0.06 xG
1st 16:00ANAN. Nesterenko0.14 xG
2nd 4:45STLR. Thomas0.14 xG
2nd 8:02STLP. Buchnevich0.24 xG
2nd 14:38ANAS. Colangelo0.10 xG

Team Stats

ANASTL

23Shots on goal34

2.23Expected goals2.92

55Shot attempts62

195v5 shots on goal34

0/2Power play0/1

29Hits28

16Blocked shots17

4Penalty minutes6

18Giveaways17

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 2.23 xGSTL 2.92 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA23 on goal, 2 scored

STL34 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Strome	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	-3	0	14:41	2:11
S. Colangelo	RW	1	0	1	2	2	1	-2	0	12:29	1:06
N. Nesterenko	C	1	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	11:48	0:00
R. Fabbri	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	18:04	1:47
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	16:40	1:43
L. Carlsson	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	16:26	2:13
C. Gauthier	LW	0	0	0	5	1	0	-1	2	16:06	1:48
M. McTavish	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	15:49	1:48
F. Vatrano	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-3	0	15:34	2:13
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	14:42	0:00
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	13:57	0:00
B. Leason	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:48	1:11
J. LaCombe	D	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	0	20:39	2:23
R. Gudas	D	0	1	1	0	3	1	0	0	17:31	0:00
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	21:12	1:37
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	-4	0	19:32	0:00
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	18:43	0:00
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	1	3	4	-4	0	18:19	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	22	16	6	.727	28:02	Loss
J. Gibson	12	12	0	1.000	31:58

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Thomas	C	2	0	2	6	0	0	+1	2	15:06	1:00
J. Kyrou	RW	1	1	2	7	0	0	+2	0	14:37	1:03
B. Schenn	C	0	2	2	0	3	0	+2	0	14:33	1:03
P. Buchnevich	LW	1	1	2	1	0	1	+1	0	13:55	0:57
B. Saad	LW	0	2	2	3	0	0	0	0	11:49	0:00
D. Holloway	LW	1	0	1	4	1	0	+3	0	15:08	1:02
O. Sundqvist	C	0	1	1	0	1	2	+1	0	14:11	0:58
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	14:09	0:57
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	2	4	2	+1	0	16:09	1:00
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:38	0:00
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	15:13	0:00
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	2	15:08	0:00
C. Fowler	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+2	0	20:26	0:55
R. Suter	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	+3	0	18:59	0:00
T. Tucker	D	1	0	1	2	5	0	+1	2	16:01	0:00
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	1	2	4	+3	0	21:55	0:00
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	0	21:08	0:01
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	19:55	1:04

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	23	21	2	.913	60:00	Win
J. Binnington	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMason McTavish STL First game against ANA since he left (his team until May 2026)0 SOG
Old teamCam Fowler STL Faces ANA, his team until Dec 20241 A, 1 SOG
BirthdayJackson LaCombe ANA Turns 24 that day1 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 2.7, STL 3.4	ANA 2, STL 6
Total goals	6.2	8
Shots on goal	ANA 27.3, STL 30.9	ANA 23, STL 34
Win chance	STL 61%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
ANA F. Vatrano	3.1	0	0.62	0	28%	0
STL J. Kyrou	3.0	7	0.93	2	35%	1
STL D. Holloway	2.5	4	0.67	1	26%	1
STL P. Buchnevich	2.2	1	0.88	2	30%	1
STL J. Faulk	2.2	0	0.56	0	11%	0
STL B. Schenn	2.0	0	0.67	2	23%	0
STL C. Parayko	2.0	1	0.45	0	11%	0
ANA M. McTavish	2.0	0	0.54	0	21%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.9	6	1.01	2	26%	2
ANA C. Gauthier	1.8	5	0.45	0	14%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.8	1	0.30	0	6%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.8	1	0.55	1	17%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.7	2	0.49	0	24%	0
ANA R. Fabbri	1.7	3	0.51	0	24%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.7	2	0.54	0	22%	0
STL B. Saad	1.7	3	0.53	2	24%	0
ANA N. Nesterenko	1.7	1	0.20	1	12%	1
STL Z. Bolduc	1.6	2	0.44	1	17%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.5	1	0.55	1	10%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.5	3	0.38	1	10%	0
ANA B. Leason	1.5	1	0.33	0	15%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	1.5	1	0.43	0	18%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.4	3	0.38	0	8%	0
ANA S. Colangelo	1.3	2	0.18	1	11%	1
ANA R. Gudas	1.2	0	0.25	1	5%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.2	1	0.25	0	13%	0
STL N. Walker	1.1	0	0.31	0	14%	0
ANA B. Dumoulin	1.1	0	0.24	0	4%	0
STL R. Faksa	1.1	0	0.27	0	11%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.0	1	0.28	0	5%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	1.0	0	0.36	1	13%	0
STL R. Suter	0.9	1	0.24	1	4%	0
ANA D. Helleson	0.9	0	0.21	0	7%	0
ANA I. Lundestrom	0.9	1	0.23	0	12%	0
ANA J. Harkins	0.8	1	0.15	0	7%	0
STL T. Tucker	0.7	2	0.11	1	4%	1

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.