Game Recap: ANA 2, STL 7, March 16, 2025

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Game Recap

ANA2

FinalSun, Mar 16, 2025Every game that night

STL7

STL beat ANA 7-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.67 expected goals to 2.18. J. Kyrou led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). T. Terry had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. J. Binnington stopped 23 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
ANA	0	1	1	2
STL	2	3	2	7

1st 0:41STLB. Schenn0.04 xG
1st 1:30STLP. Buchnevich0.05 xG
2nd 8:19STLD. HollowayPP0.07 xG
2nd 10:06ANAC. Gauthier0.32 xG
2nd 15:39STLR. Faksa0.22 xG
2nd 18:10STLM. JosephSH0.10 xG
3rd 2:23ANAN. Nesterenko0.13 xG
3rd 6:18STLJ. NeighboursPP0.10 xG
3rd 12:19STLO. SundqvistPP0.45 xG

Team Stats

ANASTL

25Shots on goal26

2.18Expected goals3.67

52Shot attempts58

165v5 shots on goal17

0/4Power play3/5

18Hits25

17Blocked shots15

15Penalty minutes13

15Giveaways14

4Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 2.18 xGSTL 3.67 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA25 on goal, 2 scored

STL26 on goal, 7 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. McTavish	C	0	2	2	2	1	0	+1	2	16:41	4:19
C. Gauthier	LW	1	1	2	3	1	0	0	0	14:44	3:05
N. Nesterenko	C	1	0	1	1	1	2	+1	0	11:20	0:00
T. Terry	RW	0	0	0	6	0	1	0	0	19:05	4:01
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-2	0	17:39	3:06
R. Strome	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	4	17:25	2:51
T. Zegras	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	17:11	4:22
F. Vatrano	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	17:05	2:50
L. Carlsson	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:39	3:43
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	13:10	0:00
B. Leason	RW	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	11:29	0:00
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	9:38	0:00
R. Gudas	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	-1	0	20:26	0:09
J. LaCombe	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	0	22:41	4:15
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	20:17	2:55
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	7	19:46	0:14
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	15:06	0:00
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	0	4	2	+1	0	15:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	14	9	5	.643	40:00	Loss
V. Husso	12	10	2	.833	20:00

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Kyrou	RW	0	3	3	1	1	0	+1	0	15:33	3:45
D. Holloway	LW	1	1	2	2	1	0	+1	0	17:05	3:52
J. Neighbours	LW	1	1	2	1	1	2	0	0	13:28	2:54
R. Thomas	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	18:21	2:29
P. Buchnevich	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	15:56	1:35
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	1	1	4	0	1	-1	0	15:24	1:44
O. Sundqvist	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	15:02	1:43
B. Schenn	C	1	0	1	5	1	0	+1	7	13:42	2:54
R. Faksa	C	1	0	1	1	3	1	+1	0	13:35	0:24
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	1	1	0	4	3	+1	0	13:13	0:21
N. Walker	LW	0	1	1	0	8	1	+1	2	12:56	0:18
M. Joseph	RW	1	0	1	3	3	2	0	0	12:12	0:00
J. Faulk	D	0	2	2	0	0	0	+1	2	21:23	3:37
C. Fowler	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	18:52	1:48
R. Suter	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	19:47	0:19
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	2	19:27	0:22
N. Leddy	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:27	0:00
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	17:49	0:51

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	25	23	2	.920	59:48	Win
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMason McTavish STL First game against ANA since he left (his team until May 2026)2 A, 2 SOG
Old teamCam Fowler STL Faces ANA, his team until Dec 20241 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 2.7, STL 3.3	ANA 2, STL 7
Total goals	6.0	9
Shots on goal	ANA 25.2, STL 30.8	ANA 25, STL 26
Win chance	STL 60%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
ANA F. Vatrano	2.9	0	0.65	0	29%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.6	1	0.78	3	31%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.4	2	0.68	2	25%	1
STL P. Buchnevich	2.1	2	0.84	1	28%	1
STL R. Thomas	2.1	1	0.99	1	26%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.0	6	0.76	0	27%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.9	0	0.50	2	9%	0
ANA M. McTavish	1.9	2	0.60	2	23%	0
ANA T. Zegras	1.7	1	0.57	0	20%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.7	5	0.65	1	22%	1
ANA C. Gauthier	1.7	3	0.42	2	15%	1
ANA R. Strome	1.7	1	0.55	0	17%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.6	3	0.49	0	22%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.6	0	0.36	0	9%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.6	1	0.52	2	25%	1
ANA J. LaCombe	1.6	2	0.50	0	11%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.6	2	0.28	0	8%	0
STL Z. Bolduc	1.6	4	0.46	1	19%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.4	1	0.27	0	6%	0
ANA N. Nesterenko	1.4	1	0.22	1	12%	1
STL A. Toropchenko	1.3	0	0.27	1	12%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.3	0	0.48	1	9%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	1.3	1	0.45	0	18%	0
STL M. Joseph	1.2	3	0.30	1	10%	1
ANA R. Gudas	1.2	0	0.24	1	5%	0
ANA B. Leason	1.1	0	0.25	0	11%	0
STL T. Tucker	1.1	1	0.17	0	6%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	1.1	4	0.35	1	13%	1
STL N. Walker	1.1	0	0.27	1	14%	0
STL R. Faksa	1.0	1	0.23	1	10%	1
ANA J. Harkins	1.0	0	0.18	0	9%	0
ANA D. Helleson	1.0	2	0.23	0	8%	0
STL N. Leddy	0.9	0	0.27	0	4%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	0.8	0	0.24	0	5%	0
ANA I. Lundestrom	0.8	0	0.24	0	10%	0
STL R. Suter	0.8	1	0.21	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.