TBL beat ANA 4-3 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 4.51 expected goals to 2.22. N. Kucherov led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). M. McTavish had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 34 of 37.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| TBL | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 6:03ANAT. Terry0.02 xG
- 1st 14:19TBLA. CirelliPP0.21 xG
- 2nd 2:51TBLJ. GuentzelPP0.81 xG
- 2nd 11:26ANAL. Carlsson0.04 xG
- 2nd 15:26TBLB. Point0.17 xG
- 3rd 9:53ANAR. Fabbri0.08 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
ANA 2.22 xGTBL 4.51 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Terry | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22:18 | 2:38 |
| R. Strome | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:11 | 2:22 |
| M. McTavish | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:11 | 1:39 |
| L. Carlsson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:36 | 2:26 |
| R. Fabbri | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 11:20 | 1:34 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:22 | 1:35 |
| F. Vatrano | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 21:21 | 2:25 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:28 | 0:00 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:34 | 1:19 |
| J. Harkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:51 | 0:00 |
| N. Nesterenko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:46 | 0:00 |
| R. Johnston | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:02 | 0:00 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 21:03 | 0:02 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:03 | 0:22 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:19 | 0:00 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 24:45 | 2:16 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 22:05 | 0:00 |
| O. Zellweger | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:30 | 1:22 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27:27 | 8:42 |
| B. Point | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:45 | 5:36 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 22:27 | 3:55 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:09 | 3:06 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 20:33 | 4:47 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:47 | 5:02 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:07 | 0:00 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:07 | 0:00 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:54 | 0:00 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:06 | 3:39 |
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 8:01 | 0:00 |
| C. Atkinson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:13 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 28:23 | 4:35 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:04 | 4:08 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 18:17 | 0:00 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 26:18 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:48 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:34 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 37 | 34 | 3 | .919 | 65:00 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ANA 2.6, TBL 3.8 | ANA 3, TBL 4 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | ANA 26.7, TBL 32.3 | ANA 37, TBL 35 |
| Win chance | TBL 68% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.5 | 3 | 1.75 | 2 | 39% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.9 | 2 | 1.10 | 1 | 38% | 1 |
| ANA F. Vatrano | 2.8 | 3 | 0.57 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.7 | 7 | 1.13 | 1 | 35% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.7 | 3 | 1.26 | 1 | 45% | 1 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.6 | 4 | 0.91 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.3 | 6 | 0.74 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.9 | 5 | 0.75 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| TBL M. Eyssimont | 1.8 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.8 | 0 | 0.59 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 1.8 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 1.7 | 6 | 0.48 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.7 | 3 | 0.52 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.7 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA O. Zellweger | 1.6 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.6 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| ANA J. Trouba | 1.6 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA R. Fabbri | 1.6 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 1.6 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| ANA N. Nesterenko | 1.5 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 1.4 | 3 | 0.41 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.2 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 1.2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.2 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL C. Atkinson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.1 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 1.1 | 2 | 0.28 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 1.0 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| ANA B. Dumoulin | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA J. Harkins | 0.9 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| ANA I. Lundestrom | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.8 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| ANA R. Johnston | 0.4 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.