Game Recap: ANA 2, VAN 3, March 5, 2025

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Game Recap

ANA2

FinalWed, Mar 5, 2025Every game that night

VAN3

VAN beat ANA 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.65 expected goals to 1.59. VAN outshot ANA 36 to 16. F. Hronek led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). D. Joshua had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. K. Lankinen stopped 14 of 16.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
ANA	1	0	1	2
VAN	0	3	0	3

1st 13:21ANAS. Colangelo0.05 xG
2nd 1:05VANJ. DeBruskPP0.16 xG
2nd 10:33VANT. Blueger0.03 xG
2nd 18:51VANC. Soucy0.03 xG
3rd 13:27ANAB. Dumoulin0.19 xG

Team Stats

ANAVAN

16Shots on goal36

1.59Expected goals3.65

44Shot attempts59

125v5 shots on goal31

0/2Power play1/5

20Hits26

12Blocked shots15

19Penalty minutes15

10Giveaways18

1Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 1.59 xGVAN 3.65 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA15 on goal, 2 scored

VAN36 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. McTavish	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	15:37	2:43
I. Lundestrom	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	14:33	0:00
S. Colangelo	RW	1	0	1	1	2	2	+1	0	12:15	1:42
C. Gauthier	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	11:51	0:26
B. Leason	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	11:39	0:00
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	18:44	1:18
F. Vatrano	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	17:47	2:42
T. Terry	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	17:36	2:42
R. Strome	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	4	16:09	1:52
T. Zegras	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	5	15:51	2:26
L. Carlsson	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:01	1:17
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:44	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	18:17	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	26:17	1:48
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	0	2	6	0	6	22:31	1:04
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	2	20:43	0:00
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:27	0:00
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	12:41	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	21	19	2	.905	33:48
L. Dostal	15	14	1	.933	24:05	Loss

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Boeser	RW	0	1	1	2	0	3	-1	0	18:36	5:52
J. DeBrusk	LW	1	0	1	3	2	1	-1	0	16:32	5:18
T. Blueger	C	1	0	1	2	0	2	+2	0	15:04	0:27
K. Sherwood	LW	0	1	1	4	8	0	+1	0	13:54	0:26
N. Hoglander	LW	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	12:06	1:26
E. Pettersson	C	0	0	0	3	5	0	0	0	20:47	4:41
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	5	20:22	4:33
P. Suter	C	0	0	0	1	1	4	-1	0	15:50	2:27
F. Chytil	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	14:27	3:35
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	11:39	0:49
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	0	11:38	0:00
J. Lekkerimäki	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	10:10	2:24
F. Hronek	D	0	2	2	3	0	0	-2	0	20:17	5:05
C. Soucy	D	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	16:56	0:20
E. Pettersson	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	13:04	0:13
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	22:38	3:03
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	22:18	1:06
D. Forbort	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	18:18	0:15

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	16	14	2	.875	59:24	Win
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 2.4, VAN 3.3	ANA 2, VAN 3
Total goals	5.7	5
Shots on goal	ANA 24.4, VAN 28.8	ANA 16, VAN 36
Win chance	VAN 64%	VAN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
ANA F. Vatrano	2.8	0	0.58	0	26%	0
VAN F. Chytil	2.8	3	0.67	0	26%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.3	2	0.86	1	34%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.3	4	0.67	0	25%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.1	3	0.64	1	30%	1
ANA T. Terry	2.1	0	0.70	0	24%	0
ANA T. Zegras	2.0	1	0.59	0	20%	0
ANA M. McTavish	2.0	3	0.58	1	22%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	2.0	3	0.87	0	30%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.9	0	0.42	0	18%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	1.8	4	0.45	1	20%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	1.8	1	0.40	1	14%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.8	3	0.55	2	9%	0
VAN P. Suter	1.8	1	0.52	0	23%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.7	0	0.45	0	11%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.7	1	0.54	0	16%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.6	1	0.49	0	20%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	1.5	0	0.40	1	20%	0
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	1.5	3	0.36	0	17%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.4	1	0.36	0	5%	0
ANA S. Colangelo	1.4	1	0.25	1	13%	1
ANA L. Carlsson	1.3	1	0.44	0	18%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.3	0	0.23	0	6%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.2	1	0.23	0	5%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	1.2	0	0.36	0	5%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.2	2	0.33	1	10%	1
VAN D. Joshua	1.1	4	0.48	0	22%	0
ANA B. Leason	1.1	2	0.23	1	10%	0
VAN C. Soucy	0.9	1	0.19	1	6%	1
ANA P. Mintyukov	0.9	0	0.23	0	6%	0
ANA D. Helleson	0.9	1	0.18	0	6%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.9	2	0.15	1	3%	0
ANA J. Harkins	0.9	0	0.16	0	7%	0
VAN D. Forbort	0.8	0	0.18	0	5%	0
ANA B. Dumoulin	0.8	2	0.22	1	4%	1
ANA I. Lundestrom	0.8	1	0.21	1	9%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.