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Game Recap
ANA2
VAN6
VAN beat ANA 6-2, with the chances close: 2.60 expected goals to 2.75. B. Boeser led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). O. Zellweger had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. T. Demko stopped 30 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| VAN | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
- 1st 1:21ANAT. Terry0.05 xG
- 1st 9:40VANE. Pettersson0.07 xG
- 1st 10:46VANF. Hronek0.02 xG
- 1st 11:32VANB. BoeserPP0.05 xG
- 1st 13:25VANC. GarlandPP0.78 xG
- 1st 14:10VAND. Joshua0.21 xG
- 2nd 2:49ANAT. Zegras0.19 xG
- 3rd 5:33VANM. Sasson0.19 xG
Team Stats
ANAVAN
32Shots on goal26
2.75Expected goals2.60
59Shot attempts46
305v5 shots on goal21
0/2Power play2/2
31Hits31
5Blocked shots9
4Penalty minutes4
11Giveaways10
5Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
ANA 2.75 xGVAN 2.60 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. McTavish | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:51 | 2:33 |
| T. Terry | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:44 | 1:45 |
| T. Zegras | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:36 | 2:17 |
| F. Vatrano | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:21 | 1:27 |
| L. Carlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:52 | 1:45 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:12 | 1:54 |
| R. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:50 | 1:57 |
| S. Colangelo | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:09 | 1:55 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:15 | 0:00 |
| J. Harkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:25 | 0:11 |
| N. Nesterenko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:25 | 0:16 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:37 | 0:00 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:19 | 0:00 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:58 | 0:00 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:36 | 2:03 |
| D. Helleson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 20:18 | 0:00 |
| O. Zellweger | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:04 | 1:57 |
| O. Kylington | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:28 | 0:00 |
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Boeser | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:10 | 1:00 |
| C. Garland | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:10 | 0:29 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:23 | 0:00 |
| D. Joshua | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:34 | 0:00 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:31 | 0:00 |
| L. Karlsson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:47 | 0:00 |
| J. Lekkerimäki | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:35 | 0:31 |
| M. Sasson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:58 | 0:00 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:55 | 1:00 |
| A. Räty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:31 | 0:00 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:45 | 0:00 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:16 | 1:00 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:36 | 1:00 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 22:36 | 0:00 |
| F. Hronek | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 22:20 | 0:00 |
| D. Forbort | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:38 | 0:00 |
| E. Pettersson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:07 | 0:00 |
| V. Mancini | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:25 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Demko | 32 | 30 | 2 | .938 | 59:43 | Win |
| K. Lankinen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ANA 2.8, VAN 3.4 | ANA 2, VAN 6 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | ANA 25.4, VAN 29.6 | ANA 32, VAN 26 |
| Win chance | VAN 60% | VAN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN Q. Hughes | 3.0 | 1 | 1.17 | 2 | 17% | 0 |
| ANA F. Vatrano | 2.4 | 3 | 0.52 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.4 | 1 | 0.69 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 2.3 | 4 | 0.87 | 2 | 34% | 1 |
| VAN C. Garland | 2.3 | 3 | 0.68 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 2.3 | 2 | 0.68 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.1 | 3 | 0.69 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| VAN P. Suter | 2.1 | 0 | 0.68 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 2.0 | 2 | 0.57 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 1.9 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| ANA T. Zegras | 1.8 | 1 | 0.63 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.7 | 2 | 0.55 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| ANA O. Zellweger | 1.6 | 6 | 0.32 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN D. O'Connor | 1.6 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.6 | 3 | 0.49 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 1.5 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 1.5 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.4 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| ANA S. Colangelo | 1.4 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| ANA N. Nesterenko | 1.3 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN J. Lekkerimäki | 1.3 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN L. Karlsson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.18 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.2 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| VAN A. Räty | 1.2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN M. Sasson | 1.1 | 3 | 0.27 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| VAN M. Pettersson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN V. Mancini | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA D. Helleson | 1.0 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VAN D. Joshua | 1.0 | 4 | 0.38 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| ANA O. Kylington | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 0.8 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA J. Harkins | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 0.8 | 1 | 0.13 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
| VAN D. Forbort | 0.7 | 1 | 0.17 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA I. Lundestrom | 0.6 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.