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Game Recap
ANA5
VAN3
ANA beat VAN 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.84 expected goals to 3.16. J. Carlson led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). F. Hronek had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. L. Dostal stopped 27 of 30.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| VAN | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 5:45VANJ. DeBruskPP0.18 xG
- 2nd 5:26ANAA. Killorn0.18 xG
- 2nd 7:50ANAM. Granlund0.64 xG
- 2nd 13:13VANB. BoeserPP0.13 xG
- 3rd 1:01ANAM. GranlundPP0.20 xG
- 3rd 2:22VAND. O'Connor0.16 xG
- 3rd 5:45ANAM. McTavish0.06 xG
- 3rd 19:55ANAT. TerryEN0.72 xG
Team Stats
ANAVAN
34Shots on goal30
4.84Expected goals3.16
59Shot attempts60
265v5 shots on goal24
1/3Power play2/3
21Hits13
7Blocked shots8
4Penalty minutes6
18Giveaways14
8Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
ANA 4.84 xGVAN 3.16 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Carlsson | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:43 | 3:18 |
| M. Granlund | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:30 | 1:52 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:04 | 3:19 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:42 | 0:49 |
| T. Terry | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:16 | 3:20 |
| M. McTavish | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:42 | 0:50 |
| B. Sennecke | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:44 | 0:49 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:50 | 2:19 |
| R. Poehling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:02 | 0:00 |
| T. Washe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:39 | 0:00 |
| J. Viel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:25 | 0:00 |
| J. Harkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2:05 | 0:00 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 24:01 | 2:57 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 20:18 | 1:12 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 22:06 | 0:00 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:46 | 0:00 |
| I. Moore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:16 | 0:00 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:00 | 0:00 |
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Pettersson | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:36 | 2:59 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:53 | 2:59 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:04 | 0:52 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:06 | 2:59 |
| E. Kane | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:36 | 0:52 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:38 | 2:59 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:23 | 0:00 |
| L. Karlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:57 | 0:52 |
| L. Ohgren | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:36 | 0:00 |
| M. Sasson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:30 | 0:00 |
| A. Räty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 8:29 | 0:00 |
| C. Douglas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 6:55 | 0:00 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 26:27 | 2:59 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:55 | 0:00 |
| Z. Buium | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:23 | 0:52 |
| T. Willander | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:54 | 0:52 |
| E. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:38 | 0:00 |
| P. Joseph | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 12:48 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lankinen | 33 | 29 | 4 | .879 | 58:27 | Loss |
| N. Tolopilo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
ANA
Line 1T. Terry15:15L. Carlsson15:58C. Kreider14:09
Line 2R. Poehling13:10C. Gauthier14:21J. Viel13:15
Line 3M. McTavish11:52T. Washe13:33M. Granlund14:47
Line 4A. Killorn13:25B. Sennecke8:55
Pair 1J. Carlson20:28P. Mintyukov18:28
Pair 2J. LaCombe18:12J. Trouba15:50
VAN
Line 1T. Blueger16:56L. Karlsson15:17J. DeBrusk11:20
Line 3E. Pettersson12:21D. O'Connor14:11E. Kane12:35
Line 4C. Douglas6:46A. Räty7:42M. Sasson10:04
Pair 1M. Pettersson18:58T. Willander17:28
Pair 3E. Pettersson14:16P. Joseph12:27
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ANA 3.3, VAN 3.0 | ANA 5, VAN 3 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | ANA 29.4, VAN 27.0 | ANA 34, VAN 30 |
| Win chance | ANA 54% | ANA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA C. Gauthier | 3.3 | 3 | 0.87 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| ANA B. Sennecke | 2.4 | 2 | 0.79 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 2.2 | 3 | 0.83 | 2 | 26% | 0 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 2.2 | 3 | 0.74 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.2 | 2 | 0.84 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.2 | 4 | 0.56 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| VAN E. Kane | 2.2 | 5 | 0.50 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| ANA J. Trouba | 2.0 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 2.0 | 1 | 0.55 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| ANA C. Kreider | 1.9 | 2 | 0.74 | 2 | 33% | 0 |
| ANA J. Carlson | 1.9 | 2 | 0.71 | 3 | 13% | 0 |
| VAN D. O'Connor | 1.9 | 4 | 0.47 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| ANA M. Granlund | 1.8 | 3 | 0.71 | 2 | 19% | 2 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.8 | 5 | 0.70 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| VAN L. Ohgren | 1.7 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 1.7 | 0 | 0.77 | 2 | 27% | 0 |
| VAN L. Karlsson | 1.7 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 1.6 | 3 | 0.64 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 1.6 | 3 | 0.49 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| VAN M. Rossi | 1.5 | 1 | 0.70 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.5 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| ANA R. Poehling | 1.4 | 4 | 0.56 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| ANA J. Viel | 1.3 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 1.1 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN A. Räty | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN M. Sasson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VAN Z. Buium | 1.1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN T. Willander | 1.1 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VAN M. Pettersson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA I. Moore | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA T. Washe | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 0.9 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN P. Joseph | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN C. Douglas | 0.8 | 3 | 0.12 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA J. Harkins | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.