Game Recap: ANA 4, WPG 3 (OT), January 2, 2025

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Game Recap

ANA4

Final/OTThu, Jan 2, 2025Every game that night

WPG3

ANA beat WPG 4-3 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 1.58 expected goals to 3.98. T. Terry led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). N. Niederreiter had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. J. Gibson stopped 27 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
ANA	1	1	1	1	4
WPG	2	0	1	0	3

1st 0:33WPGM. Scheifele0.16 xG
1st 17:17WPGA. Lowry0.26 xG
1st 18:58ANAL. Carlsson0.07 xG
2nd 6:52ANAT. Terry0.02 xG
3rd 17:16WPGA. Iafallo0.43 xG
3rd 18:10ANAR. Gudas0.05 xG
OT 3:34ANAT. Terry0.09 xG

Team Stats

ANAWPG

24Shots on goal30

1.58Expected goals3.98

44Shot attempts73

205v5 shots on goal24

0/0Power play0/2

44Hits26

22Blocked shots9

4Penalty minutes0

13Giveaways15

4Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 1.58 xGWPG 3.98 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA23 on goal, 4 scored

WPG30 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Terry	RW	2	1	3	3	1	0	+1	0	17:07	0:00
R. Strome	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	4	17:22	0:00
F. Vatrano	RW	0	1	1	2	4	2	0	0	16:25	0:00
A. Killorn	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	+3	0	15:39	0:00
L. Carlsson	C	1	0	1	1	0	2	+1	0	14:42	0:00
R. Fabbri	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	20:17	0:00
M. McTavish	C	0	0	0	3	4	2	-1	0	18:08	0:00
C. Gauthier	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	15:47	0:00
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:38	0:00
B. Leason	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	13:21	0:00
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	10:34	0:00
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	10:03	0:00
R. Gudas	D	1	1	2	4	2	5	+1	0	24:40	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	1	1	1	3	5	+1	0	21:48	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	+1	0	24:55	0:00
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	+2	0	23:38	0:00
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	-2	0	14:56	0:00
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	-2	0	13:50	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	30	27	3	.900	63:26	Win
L. Dostal	0	0	0	–	0:00

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
A. Iafallo	LW	1	1	2	4	2	0	+2	14:06	1:36
M. Scheifele	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	22:38	2:24
K. Connor	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	22:10	2:10
G. Vilardi	C	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	20:37	2:09
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	1	1	6	1	0	+2	16:14	1:51
A. Lowry	C	1	0	1	1	3	0	0	16:05	0:00
N. Ehlers	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	19:41	2:02
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-3	19:16	1:50
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	16:05	1:39
D. Gustafsson	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	8:56	0:00
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	7:55	0:00
R. Kupari	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	6:57	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	0	2	2	0	0	3	+1	27:39	2:08
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+2	23:00	0:09
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	21:42	1:43
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	20:23	0:00
C. Miller	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	13:39	0:19
V. Heinola	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	13:39	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	24	20	4	.833	63:34	OT loss
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 2.5, WPG 3.5	ANA 4, WPG 3
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	ANA 28.1, WPG 31.2	ANA 24, WPG 30
Win chance	WPG 66%	ANA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.3	3	1.18	1	41%	0
ANA F. Vatrano	3.2	2	0.57	1	27%	0
WPG N. Ehlers	2.5	2	0.86	0	27%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.4	3	0.70	3	26%	2
WPG J. Morrissey	2.3	0	0.88	2	15%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	2.2	3	0.91	1	36%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.2	3	1.12	1	38%	1
WPG N. Niederreiter	2.0	6	0.53	1	24%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	1.9	0	0.42	0	14%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.9	2	0.62	0	21%	0
ANA M. McTavish	1.8	3	0.49	0	19%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.8	1	0.50	1	17%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.7	3	0.56	0	9%	0
ANA R. Fabbri	1.7	2	0.48	0	23%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.6	1	0.46	1	20%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.6	1	0.25	0	5%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.5	1	0.51	1	19%	1
ANA L. Carlsson	1.4	1	0.35	1	16%	1
WPG C. Miller	1.4	0	0.26	0	7%	0
ANA B. Leason	1.4	0	0.28	0	13%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.3	4	0.41	2	17%	1
ANA J. LaCombe	1.2	1	0.32	0	7%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.2	0	0.52	0	18%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.1	1	0.34	0	5%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.1	0	0.22	0	10%	0
WPG L. Stanley	1.1	0	0.27	0	5%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.0	0	0.26	0	5%	0
WPG V. Heinola	1.0	0	0.20	0	3%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.0	4	0.19	2	3%	1
ANA D. Helleson	1.0	1	0.26	0	7%	0
ANA B. Dumoulin	0.9	1	0.20	1	3%	0
WPG D. Gustafsson	0.8	2	0.16	0	6%	0
ANA I. Lundestrom	0.8	2	0.18	0	10%	0
WPG R. Kupari	0.8	0	0.14	0	6%	0
ANA J. Harkins	0.7	0	0.14	0	6%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.4	1	0.09	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.