Game Recap: ANA 1, WPG 2 (OT), April 16, 2025

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Game Recap

ANA1

Final/OTWed, Apr 16, 2025Every game that night

WPG2

WPG beat ANA 2-1 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.68 expected goals to 2.50. WPG outshot ANA 44 to 31. L. Stanley had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. C. Hellebuyck stopped 30 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
ANA	0	0	1	0	1
WPG	0	1	0	1	2

2nd 13:49WPGN. Pionk0.06 xG
3rd 5:45ANAT. Terry0.37 xG
OT 1:11WPGM. Scheifele0.23 xG

Team Stats

ANAWPG

31Shots on goal44

2.50Expected goals3.68

61Shot attempts81

295v5 shots on goal41

0/1Power play0/4

33Hits13

16Blocked shots14

8Penalty minutes2

14Giveaways12

0Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 2.50 xGWPG 3.68 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA30 on goal, 1 scored

WPG44 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Terry	RW	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	17:52	1:15
F. Vatrano	RW	0	1	1	2	4	1	+1	4	15:06	0:48
M. McTavish	C	0	0	0	5	2	0	-1	0	19:19	1:10
L. Carlsson	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	18:45	1:14
C. Gauthier	LW	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	2	16:42	1:12
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	15:48	0:50
T. Zegras	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	14:42	0:00
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	13:38	0:00
S. Colangelo	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:36	0:46
R. Strome	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	10:49	0:45
B. Leason	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	10:29	0:00
T. Washe	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	9:04	0:00
I. Moore	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	14:08	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	0	0	0	3	2	2	-1	0	26:08	1:06
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	3	2	2	0	2	22:33	0:00
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	21:55	0:00
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	0	5	3	+1	0	19:03	0:00
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	15:56	0:54

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
V. Husso	44	42	2	.955	61:11	OT loss
L. Dostal	0	0	0	–	0:00

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Scheifele	C	1	0	1	3	0	2	+1	0	21:02	5:01
K. Connor	LW	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	20:41	5:10
C. Perfetti	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	19:15	5:06
V. Namestnikov	C	0	1	1	4	0	1	+1	0	16:11	1:56
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	18:34	5:09
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	16:12	1:59
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:02	1:50
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	13:59	0:00
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	12:56	0:00
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	12:37	1:32
J. Anderson-Dolan	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	2	11:35	0:00
D. Gustafsson	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	10:17	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	+1	0	26:20	4:56
N. Pionk	D	1	0	1	2	0	2	+1	0	18:11	2:08
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	19:49	0:00
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	4	2	1	+1	0	18:11	0:23
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	16:57	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	4	1	1	-1	0	15:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	31	30	1	.968	60:43	Win
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 2.3, WPG 3.8	ANA 1, WPG 2
Total goals	6.1	3
Shots on goal	ANA 24.6, WPG 32.2	ANA 31, WPG 44
Win chance	WPG 73%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.5	3	1.21	1	41%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	2.8	1	0.92	1	18%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.4	3	1.14	1	38%	1
ANA F. Vatrano	2.4	2	0.42	1	21%	0
ANA M. McTavish	2.3	5	0.54	0	21%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	2.3	3	0.44	0	18%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	2.2	2	0.75	1	25%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	2.2	3	0.57	0	25%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.2	4	0.55	1	22%	1
WPG N. Pionk	2.0	2	0.52	1	9%	1
WPG A. Iafallo	2.0	3	0.57	0	22%	0
ANA T. Zegras	1.7	2	0.49	0	18%	0
WPG M. Appleton	1.7	1	0.40	0	16%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.6	0	0.40	0	19%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	1.6	2	0.47	0	18%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.6	3	0.41	0	8%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.6	4	0.32	0	6%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.6	0	0.51	0	20%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.5	2	0.29	0	14%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.4	4	0.55	1	17%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.4	1	0.20	0	4%	0
ANA S. Colangelo	1.4	0	0.32	0	18%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.3	2	0.35	0	12%	0
WPG L. Schenn	1.3	2	0.18	0	4%	0
ANA D. Helleson	1.3	0	0.20	0	5%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.2	1	0.36	0	6%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.2	3	0.20	0	3%	0
WPG J. Anderson-Dolan	1.1	4	0.21	0	10%	0
WPG B. Tanev	1.1	3	0.30	0	13%	0
WPG L. Stanley	1.0	4	0.24	0	4%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.0	0	0.24	0	4%	0
ANA B. Leason	1.0	2	0.19	0	9%	0
WPG D. Gustafsson	0.9	2	0.20	0	7%	0
ANA I. Lundestrom	0.6	1	0.15	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.