Game Recap: ANA 4, WPG 1, March 10, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

ANA4

FinalTue, Mar 10, 2026Every game that night

WPG1

ANA beat WPG 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.61 expected goals to 1.63. ANA outshot WPG 35 to 13. R. Poehling led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). R. Poehling had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. L. Dostal stopped 12 of 13.

Team Stats

ANAWPG

35Shots on goal13

3.61Expected goals1.63

60Shot attempts41

305v5 shots on goal9

0/2Power play0/3

15Hits15

11Blocked shots12

6Penalty minutes4

12Giveaways12

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 3.61 xGWPG 1.63 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA34 on goal, 3 scored

WPG13 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Killorn	LW	1	1	2	1	0	0	+2	0	17:50	0:48
R. Poehling	C	1	1	2	5	3	0	+3	0	16:06	0:00
T. Washe	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+2	0	13:04	0:00
J. Harkins	C	0	1	1	4	2	1	+1	0	8:37	0:00
M. Granlund	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	18:58	0:48
B. Sennecke	RW	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	4	17:37	1:34
L. Carlsson	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	16:12	1:34
C. Gauthier	LW	0	0	0	6	1	0	-1	0	15:41	1:34
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	14:57	1:34
M. McTavish	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:42	0:48
J. Viel	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	2	13:18	0:00
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	8:49	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	1	1	2	4	0	1	+2	0	27:21	1:34
J. Trouba	D	0	1	1	2	1	2	+1	0	27:02	0:48
R. Gudas	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	16:14	0:00
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	+2	0	16:26	0:00
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	16:19	0:48
I. Moore	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	15:19	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	13	12	1	.923	59:28	Win
V. Husso	0	0	0	–	0:00

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Perfetti	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	2	16:15	2:32
M. Barron	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	11:50	0:00
M. Scheifele	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-3	0	23:48	2:32
K. Connor	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-3	0	23:26	2:33
G. Vilardi	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-3	0	20:30	1:41
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	2	14:15	0:00
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	13:58	0:00
J. Toews	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:08	1:50
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	12:23	1:49
I. Rosen	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	12:12	1:48
B. Lambert	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	11:45	2:30
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	9:57	0:00
E. Salomonsson	D	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	18:28	0:22
J. Morrissey	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-2	0	24:54	2:19
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	21:14	0:00
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	19:40	0:00
H. Fleury	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	17:41	2:03
J. Bryson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	13:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	34	31	3	.912	57:18	Loss
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

ANA

Line 1C. Kreider12:48L. Carlsson13:31C. Gauthier13:05

Line 2M. Granlund13:53B. Sennecke14:18M. McTavish12:53

Line 3A. Killorn12:45J. Viel12:40R. Poehling12:24

Line 4T. Washe9:45J. Harkins8:37R. Johnston8:49

Pair 1J. LaCombe22:53J. Trouba19:41

Pair 2R. Gudas14:45O. Zellweger12:46

Pair 3P. Mintyukov13:00I. Moore14:12

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele17:40K. Connor16:35G. Vilardi15:44

Line 2A. Lowry13:31C. Perfetti11:20A. Iafallo13:18

Line 3G. Nyquist10:07I. Rosen10:24J. Toews9:20

Line 4B. Lambert9:15C. Koepke8:23M. Barron9:59

Pair 1D. DeMelo18:15J. Morrissey19:54

Pair 2D. Samberg17:41E. Salomonsson15:12

Pair 3J. Bryson13:18H. Fleury12:49

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 2.9, WPG 3.4	ANA 4, WPG 1
Total goals	6.3	5
Shots on goal	ANA 27.7, WPG 29.4	ANA 35, WPG 13
Win chance	WPG 59%	ANA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.7	0	1.38	0	43%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	3.4	6	0.78	0	29%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.6	0	1.36	0	41%	0
ANA B. Sennecke	2.5	2	0.81	0	24%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	2.5	0	0.75	1	25%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	2.4	0	0.97	0	19%	0
ANA J. Trouba	2.1	2	0.39	1	9%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	2.1	2	0.72	0	23%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	2.1	0	0.93	0	34%	0
ANA M. Granlund	1.9	1	0.71	0	19%	0
ANA C. Kreider	1.9	0	0.65	0	30%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.8	1	0.44	2	19%	1
ANA J. LaCombe	1.8	4	0.60	2	11%	1
ANA O. Zellweger	1.7	2	0.26	0	8%	0
ANA M. McTavish	1.6	1	0.44	0	17%	0
WPG E. Salomonsson	1.6	0	0.16	1	7%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.6	1	0.36	0	6%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.6	2	0.34	1	14%	1
WPG A. Iafallo	1.5	1	0.44	0	18%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.4	0	0.45	0	18%	0
ANA R. Poehling	1.4	5	0.47	2	16%	1
ANA J. Viel	1.3	1	0.16	0	10%	0
WPG J. Toews	1.3	1	0.41	0	15%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.2	1	0.35	0	6%	0
WPG G. Nyquist	1.2	3	0.41	0	14%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.1	0	0.33	0	8%	0
WPG C. Koepke	1.1	2	0.26	0	11%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.1	0	0.19	1	3%	0
WPG I. Rosen	1.0	1	0.27	0	11%	0
ANA I. Moore	1.0	1	0.22	0	5%	0
WPG H. Fleury	1.0	1	0.17	0	3%	0
ANA T. Washe	1.0	2	0.18	1	9%	1
ANA J. Harkins	0.8	4	0.15	1	7%	0
WPG B. Lambert	0.7	0	0.28	0	11%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.5	1	0.16	0	5%	0
WPG J. Bryson	0.4	0	0.13	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.