Game Recap: BOS 2, ANA 6, March 26, 2025

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Game Recap

BOS2

FinalWed, Mar 26, 2025Every game that night

ANA6

ANA beat BOS 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.69 expected goals to 1.87. ANA outshot BOS 37 to 25. L. Carlsson led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. McTavish had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. J. Gibson stopped 23 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BOS	0	1	1	2
ANA	1	3	2	6

1st 17:33ANAL. CarlssonSH0.18 xG
2nd 13:58ANAN. Nesterenko0.21 xG
2nd 16:20BOSD. PastrnakPP0.13 xG
2nd 17:57ANAJ. LaCombe0.17 xG
2nd 18:45ANAC. Gauthier0.02 xG
3rd 4:02ANAL. Carlsson0.22 xG
3rd 12:25ANAM. McTavish0.04 xG
3rd 12:46BOSM. Geekie0.04 xG

Team Stats

BOSANA

25Shots on goal37

1.87Expected goals3.69

61Shot attempts71

235v5 shots on goal29

1/5Power play0/3

11Hits19

15Blocked shots15

11Penalty minutes25

12Giveaways12

2Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BOS 1.87 xGANA 3.69 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BOS25 on goal, 2 scored

ANA37 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Geekie	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	-2	0	17:25	4:46
P. Zacha	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	17:49	3:20
D. Pastrnak	RW	1	0	1	2	0	1	-5	0	17:43	5:27
E. Lindholm	C	0	1	1	1	1	2	-1	0	16:48	4:12
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-5	0	17:20	4:38
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	15:04	3:18
V. Lettieri	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	14:01	3:13
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	13:52	0:00
J. Beecher	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:27	0:00
F. Lysell	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:20	1:19
J. Lauko	C	0	0	0	3	1	3	0	0	12:59	0:00
P. Brown	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	11:42	0:01
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	23:57	0:12
H. Jokiharju	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	21:08	2:38
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-3	0	21:02	5:01
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-3	2	17:53	0:11
I. Mitchell	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	14:16	0:37
M. Callahan	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	7	14:14	0:05

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Korpisalo	37	31	6	.838	60:00	Loss
J. Swayman	0	0	0	–	0:00

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Killorn	LW	0	2	2	1	1	1	+2	0	17:46	2:52
L. Carlsson	C	2	0	2	4	0	1	+1	2	15:23	2:03
M. McTavish	C	1	0	1	6	1	0	+2	0	16:28	2:08
C. Gauthier	LW	1	0	1	4	2	1	+1	0	11:55	0:00
N. Nesterenko	C	1	0	1	2	3	0	+1	2	11:00	0:00
T. Zegras	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	+2	0	17:41	2:08
T. Terry	RW	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	2	16:35	2:50
S. Colangelo	RW	0	0	0	0	4	0	+2	0	15:26	2:02
R. Strome	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	14:33	2:56
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	13:28	0:00
F. Vatrano	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	12	12:44	2:53
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	0	0	4	+1	5	12:17	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	1	1	2	2	0	1	+1	0	21:08	2:06
D. Helleson	D	0	1	1	2	4	1	+2	0	16:34	0:00
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+4	2	21:24	0:00
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	+1	0	20:55	2:52
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	20:17	0:00
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+2	0	15:02	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	25	23	2	.920	60:00	Win
L. Dostal	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BOS 3.1, ANA 2.9	BOS 2, ANA 6
Total goals	6.1	8
Shots on goal	BOS 28.6, ANA 28.5	BOS 25, ANA 37
Win chance	BOS 53%	ANA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	4.1	2	1.27	1	44%	1
ANA F. Vatrano	2.7	0	0.60	0	26%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.3	5	0.80	0	27%	0
ANA M. McTavish	2.2	6	0.72	1	25%	1
ANA C. Gauthier	2.1	4	0.51	1	17%	1
BOS M. Geekie	2.0	2	0.65	2	27%	1
ANA T. Zegras	2.0	3	0.67	0	22%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	1.8	1	0.58	1	22%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.8	1	0.54	2	23%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.7	3	0.32	0	7%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.6	1	0.55	0	16%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.6	1	0.70	1	22%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.6	2	0.54	2	10%	1
ANA N. Nesterenko	1.6	2	0.28	1	15%	1
BOS V. Lettieri	1.5	1	0.29	0	15%	0
ANA S. Colangelo	1.5	0	0.38	0	19%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	1.5	4	0.53	2	20%	2
ANA J. Trouba	1.4	2	0.30	0	6%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.4	2	0.44	0	9%	0
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.4	1	0.64	0	19%	0
BOS C. Koepke	1.3	2	0.30	0	15%	0
BOS H. Jokiharju	1.3	1	0.24	0	5%	0
BOS A. Peeke	1.3	0	0.24	0	4%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.1	0	0.25	0	4%	0
ANA D. Helleson	0.9	2	0.25	1	7%	0
BOS P. Wotherspoon	0.9	1	0.18	0	2%	0
BOS J. Lauko	0.9	3	0.24	0	10%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	0.9	2	0.28	0	5%	0
ANA J. Harkins	0.8	0	0.15	0	7%	0
BOS P. Brown	0.8	2	0.18	0	7%	0
BOS I. Mitchell	0.8	2	0.19	0	3%	0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	0.7	0	0.23	0	11%	0
ANA I. Lundestrom	0.7	0	0.22	0	9%	0
BOS J. Beecher	0.6	1	0.19	0	10%	0
BOS M. Callahan	0.6	1	0.09	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.