Game Recap: BOS 3, ANA 4, November 19, 2025

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Game Recap

BOS3

FinalWed, Nov 19, 2025Every game that night

ANA4

ANA beat BOS 4-3 despite fewer good chances: 3.16 expected goals to 3.78. M. Geekie led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). N. Zadorov had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. L. Dostal stopped 36 of 39.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BOS	1	1	1	3
ANA	2	1	1	4

1st 2:29ANAJ. Harkins0.33 xG
1st 6:29ANAR. Gudas0.03 xG
1st 14:58BOSM. GeekiePP0.12 xG
2nd 13:47ANAR. StromePP0.08 xG
2nd 18:27BOSM. Eyssimont0.10 xG
3rd 7:39BOSM. GeekiePP0.07 xG
3rd 16:25ANAI. Moore0.06 xG

Team Stats

BOSANA

39Shots on goal33

3.78Expected goals3.16

70Shot attempts69

335v5 shots on goal28

2/2Power play1/3

38Hits16

21Blocked shots18

26Penalty minutes14

16Giveaways18

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BOS 3.78 xGANA 3.16 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BOS36 on goal, 3 scored

ANA33 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Geekie	C	2	0	2	3	7	0	0	0	18:23	0:49
D. Pastrnak	RW	0	1	1	4	1	0	-1	0	20:09	0:49
P. Zacha	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	2	15:02	0:49
M. Eyssimont	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	12:51	0:00
F. Minten	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	0	17:00	0:00
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	2	6	0	-1	0	15:57	0:00
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	15:50	0:00
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	15:48	0:00
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	14:27	0:00
M. Blümel	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	12:57	0:49
A. Steeves	C	0	0	0	1	6	5	-2	5	10:25	0:00
J. Viel	LW	0	0	0	6	1	1	+1	17	8:45	0:00
H. Lindholm	D	0	2	2	2	0	1	-3	0	22:01	0:49
N. Zadorov	D	0	1	1	7	2	1	+1	0	21:33	0:00
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	21:10	0:00
J. Aspirot	D	0	0	0	1	3	3	+1	0	19:48	0:00
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	18:46	0:00
H. Jokiharju	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-3	0	14:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Korpisalo	33	29	4	.879	58:32	Loss
J. Swayman	0	0	0	–	0:00

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. McTavish	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	+1	0	17:27	2:46
L. Carlsson	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	19:12	3:04
T. Terry	RW	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	19:04	3:17
C. Gauthier	LW	0	1	1	4	0	0	+1	0	18:33	2:53
R. Strome	C	1	0	1	4	0	1	0	0	17:59	2:47
B. Sennecke	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	17:55	3:10
J. Harkins	C	1	0	1	1	4	4	0	2	8:01	0:00
N. Nesterenko	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	8:00	0:00
R. Johnston	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	7:50	0:00
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	19:26	2:39
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	17:26	3:16
F. Vatrano	RW	0	0	0	4	4	1	0	5	14:22	0:00
R. Gudas	D	1	0	1	2	5	1	+3	5	15:11	0:00
I. Moore	D	1	0	1	2	0	2	+2	0	14:12	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	25:11	3:13
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	2	20:29	0:00
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	19:44	0:00
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	19:12	2:45

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	39	36	3	.923	59:57	Win
P. Mrazek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BOS

Line 1T. Jeannot14:07F. Minten14:32M. Kastelic14:07

Line 2M. Geekie16:06M. Khusnutdinov12:57D. Pastrnak17:41

Line 3P. Zacha11:51M. Blümel11:38A. Steeves7:58

Line 4S. Kuraly12:28M. Eyssimont12:51J. Viel8:45

Pair 1M. Lohrei18:36A. Peeke18:13

Pair 2N. Zadorov18:34J. Aspirot16:49

Pair 3H. Lindholm16:50H. Jokiharju14:27

ANA

Line 1T. Terry15:11L. Carlsson15:29C. Kreider14:10

Line 2A. Killorn15:13R. Strome14:40F. Vatrano13:49

Line 3C. Gauthier14:42M. McTavish13:42B. Sennecke14:35

Line 4R. Johnston7:50J. Harkins8:01N. Nesterenko7:47

Pair 1D. Helleson19:33J. LaCombe20:11

Pair 2J. Trouba18:23O. Zellweger16:27

Pair 3R. Gudas14:38I. Moore14:09

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BOS 3.1, ANA 3.1	BOS 3, ANA 4
Total goals	6.2	7
Shots on goal	BOS 28.0, ANA 29.9	BOS 39, ANA 33
Win chance	ANA 51%	ANA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.7	4	1.31	1	43%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	3.5	4	0.90	1	30%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.5	2	0.90	1	29%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	2.3	1	0.92	1	29%	0
ANA C. Kreider	2.3	3	0.74	0	35%	0
BOS M. Geekie	2.2	3	0.79	2	30%	2
BOS M. Eyssimont	2.1	4	0.32	1	13%	1
ANA O. Zellweger	1.9	0	0.32	0	8%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.8	2	0.58	0	12%	0
ANA M. McTavish	1.8	1	0.57	2	20%	0
ANA F. Vatrano	1.8	4	0.38	0	18%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.7	1	0.55	0	22%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.7	2	0.39	0	8%	0
BOS H. Lindholm	1.7	2	0.46	2	9%	0
ANA B. Sennecke	1.7	2	0.62	1	21%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.5	2	0.67	1	20%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.5	2	0.34	0	15%	0
BOS S. Kuraly	1.4	0	0.28	0	13%	0
BOS F. Minten	1.4	1	0.29	0	15%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.3	7	0.32	1	9%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.3	4	0.45	1	13%	1
ANA N. Nesterenko	1.3	1	0.34	1	14%	0
BOS A. Steeves	1.3	1	0.28	0	13%	0
BOS M. Blümel	1.2	2	0.21	0	12%	0
BOS A. Peeke	1.2	1	0.23	0	4%	0
ANA D. Helleson	1.2	0	0.34	0	8%	0
BOS T. Jeannot	1.1	3	0.30	0	13%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.0	0	0.36	0	6%	0
ANA I. Moore	1.0	2	0.20	1	5%	1
BOS H. Jokiharju	0.9	0	0.20	0	4%	0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	0.9	0	0.32	0	13%	0
BOS J. Viel	0.8	6	0.12	0	8%	0
ANA R. Gudas	0.8	2	0.18	1	3%	1
ANA J. Harkins	0.8	1	0.14	1	7%	1
BOS J. Aspirot	0.8	1	0.11	0	4%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.4	1	0.14	1	5%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.