Game Recap: BOS 2, BUF 7, January 28, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

BOS2

FinalTue, Jan 28, 2025Every game that night

BUF7

BUF beat BOS 7-2, with the chances close: 2.95 expected goals to 2.74. T. Thompson scored three for BUF. T. Thompson had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.3. U. Luukkonen stopped 25 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BOS	1	0	1	2
BUF	1	2	4	7

1st 12:44BOSM. Lohrei0.10 xG
1st 13:39BUFT. Thompson0.09 xG
2nd 4:43BUFT. Thompson0.09 xG
2nd 6:32BUFJ. Peterka0.02 xG
3rd 3:13BUFT. Thompson0.02 xG
3rd 10:13BOSB. MarchandPP0.13 xG
3rd 10:43BUFJ. Peterka0.25 xG
3rd 14:26BUFJ. PeterkaEN0.41 xG
3rd 19:47BUFZ. BensonPP0.10 xG

Team Stats

BOSBUF

27Shots on goal33

2.74Expected goals2.95

66Shot attempts58

215v5 shots on goal27

1/2Power play1/3

17Hits20

14Blocked shots17

16Penalty minutes4

14Giveaways10

10Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BOS 2.74 xGBUF 2.95 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BOS25 on goal, 2 scored

BUF32 on goal, 7 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Pastrnak	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	-2	0	19:04	2:01
B. Marchand	LW	1	0	1	4	1	1	-3	2	15:17	2:01
E. Lindholm	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	15:07	1:56
P. Zacha	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	2	18:01	2:01
M. Geekie	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	17:32	0:36
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-3	0	16:05	0:38
M. Poitras	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	14:49	0:38
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	-1	0	13:42	0:00
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	13:04	0:38
J. Beecher	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	12:48	0:00
V. Lettieri	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	10:51	0:00
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:51	0:00
M. Lohrei	D	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	23:16	2:01
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	21:27	0:00
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-3	0	21:07	0:02
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	4	0	2	-3	12	21:02	0:05
M. Callahan	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	15:29	0:00
J. Oesterle	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	15:19	0:38

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	32	26	6	.813	59:47	Loss
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Peterka	RW	3	1	4	4	0	0	+6	0	16:08	2:43
T. Thompson	C	3	1	4	6	0	4	+6	0	15:43	2:43
D. Cozens	C	0	2	2	5	3	1	+1	2	18:58	1:56
J. Quinn	RW	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	0	18:08	3:07
R. McLeod	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	16:27	0:00
J.Kulich	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+4	0	13:51	1:56
Z. Benson	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	10:56	1:56
A. Tuch	RW	0	0	0	4	0	2	0	0	19:44	1:32
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:31	2:43
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	15:08	0:00
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	9:08	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	7:42	0:00
B. Byram	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+2	0	22:58	1:22
R. Dahlin	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	22:44	2:43
O. Power	D	0	1	1	2	2	2	+2	0	20:46	0:34
M. Samuelsson	D	0	1	1	0	4	3	+1	2	20:35	0:00
H. Jokiharju	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+3	0	14:51	0:00
J. Bryson	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	14:20	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	27	25	2	.926	60:00	Win
J. Reimer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJJ Peterka BOS Faces BUF, his team until Apr 20253 G, 1 A, 4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BOS 2.9, BUF 2.9	BOS 2, BUF 7
Total goals	5.8	9
Shots on goal	BOS 27.0, BUF 29.7	BOS 27, BUF 33
Win chance	BOS 51%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	4.1	2	1.21	1	42%	0
BUF T. Thompson	3.3	6	0.92	4	37%	3
BUF R. Dahlin	2.6	1	0.68	1	14%	0
BOS B. Marchand	2.5	4	0.82	1	28%	1
BUF J. Peterka	2.5	4	0.67	4	24%	3
BUF J.Kulich	2.4	1	0.41	1	20%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.4	1	0.69	0	26%	0
BUF D. Cozens	2.3	5	0.59	2	22%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.3	4	0.75	0	26%	0
BUF J. Quinn	2.1	3	0.57	1	22%	0
BOS M. Geekie	2.0	1	0.60	0	23%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.8	1	0.72	0	23%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	1.8	1	0.58	1	22%	0
BOS C. Coyle	1.5	1	0.55	0	21%	0
BUF O. Power	1.5	2	0.40	1	7%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.5	2	0.42	1	16%	1
BUF R. McLeod	1.4	2	0.46	1	18%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.4	4	0.32	0	10%	0
BOS T. Frederic	1.4	3	0.38	0	17%	0
BOS V. Lettieri	1.3	1	0.27	0	14%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.2	0	0.42	1	11%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.2	1	0.37	0	11%	0
BOS J. Brazeau	1.2	1	0.33	0	15%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.1	0	0.20	1	4%	0
BOS A. Peeke	1.1	1	0.26	0	5%	0
BOS M. Poitras	1.0	1	0.40	0	12%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.0	2	0.46	1	7%	1
BOS P. Wotherspoon	1.0	0	0.19	0	3%	0
BOS J. Oesterle	1.0	2	0.21	0	3%	0
BUF H. Jokiharju	0.9	0	0.15	0	3%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.9	0	0.18	0	7%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.9	1	0.22	0	12%	0
BOS C. Koepke	0.8	1	0.22	0	11%	0
BOS J. Beecher	0.6	0	0.18	0	9%	0
BUF J. Bryson	0.4	0	0.12	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.