Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
BOS2
BUF1
BOS beat BUF 2-1 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.25 expected goals to 2.70. D. Pastrnak had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.1. J. Swayman stopped 25 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| BUF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 3:35BUFR. DahlinPP0.10 xG
- 2nd 9:24BOSE. Lindholm0.31 xG
- OT 9:14BOSD. Pastrnak0.14 xG
Team Stats
BOSBUF
29Shots on goal26
3.25Expected goals2.70
67Shot attempts78
225v5 shots on goal20
0/3Power play1/3
43Hits27
23Blocked shots16
6Penalty minutes6
20Giveaways22
7Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BOS 3.25 xGBUF 2.70 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 25:15 | 5:28 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:01 | 4:14 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 24:19 | 4:45 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 21:30 | 1:45 |
| M. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:46 | 4:46 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:25 | 1:14 |
| F. Minten | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:50 | 1:16 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:30 | 0:00 |
| A. Steeves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:23 | 0:32 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:53 | 0:00 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11:50 | 0:00 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:25 | 0:00 |
| H. Lindholm | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 21:54 | 1:16 |
| C. McAvoy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 26:24 | 4:44 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:11 | 0:00 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 22:52 | 0:00 |
| J. Aspirot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:51 | 0:00 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:27 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 26 | 25 | 1 | .962 | 69:14 | Win |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Thompson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 24:30 | 4:30 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:40 | 4:30 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 24:28 | 0:54 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 23:54 | 4:30 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 21:18 | 2:23 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:29 | 0:54 |
| T. Kozak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:55 | 0:00 |
| J. Doan | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:40 | 0:54 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:30 | 0:54 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:25 | 0:00 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:29 | 0:00 |
| N. Ostlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2:55 | 1:12 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 29:01 | 4:30 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 26:13 | 0:00 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 23:23 | 0:54 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:21 | 0:55 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:08 | 0:00 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:51 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lyon | 29 | 27 | 2 | .931 | 69:14 | Loss |
| U. Luukkonen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
BOS
Line 1D. Pastrnak19:47P. Zacha19:23M. Khusnutdinov19:13
Line 2M. Geekie14:00C. Mittelstadt16:11E. Lindholm14:48
Line 3A. Steeves12:51M. Eyssimont12:53F. Minten12:57
Line 4S. Kuraly10:44T. Jeannot10:40M. Kastelic9:55
Pair 1N. Zadorov21:55A. Peeke19:52
Pair 2C. McAvoy18:20J. Aspirot19:55
Pair 3H. Lindholm18:19H. Jokiharju17:27
BUF
Line 1T. Thompson20:00P. Krebs21:58A. Tuch17:40
Line 4J. Greenway8:14B. Malenstyn9:09
Pair 1M. Samuelsson23:10R. Dahlin24:31
Pair 3L. Stanley11:52C. Timmins14:07
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BOS 3.0, BUF 3.6 | BOS 2, BUF 1 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | BOS 25.4, BUF 31.5 | BOS 29, BUF 26 |
| Win chance | BUF 60% | BOS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.4 | 2 | 0.98 | 1 | 39% | 0 |
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.1 | 7 | 1.13 | 1 | 37% | 1 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.8 | 3 | 0.92 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 2.7 | 1 | 0.70 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.5 | 3 | 0.91 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.2 | 2 | 0.68 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 2.0 | 2 | 0.71 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| BUF J. Doan | 1.8 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.8 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BOS M. Eyssimont | 1.8 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.7 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.7 | 3 | 0.57 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.5 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 1.5 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.5 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS F. Minten | 1.5 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.4 | 3 | 0.52 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS S. Kuraly | 1.3 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.3 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.3 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.2 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF N. Ostlund | 1.2 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF L. Stanley | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS C. Mittelstadt | 1.1 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BOS A. Steeves | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 1.1 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF C. Timmins | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS H. Jokiharju | 1.0 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS T. Jeannot | 0.9 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 0.9 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 0.9 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS J. Aspirot | 0.8 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF T. Kozak | 0.7 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.