Game Recap: BOS 2, CBJ 6, December 27, 2024

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Game Recap

BOS2

FinalFri, Dec 27, 2024Every game that night

CBJ6

CBJ beat BOS 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.65 expected goals to 1.90. Z. Werenski led the way with 4 points (0 G, 4 A). C. Coyle had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. E. Merzlikins stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BOS	1	0	1	2
CBJ	1	4	1	6

1st 11:29CBJS. MonahanPP0.45 xG
1st 15:13BOSP. Zacha0.12 xG
2nd 7:00CBJA. Fantilli0.17 xG
2nd 8:13CBJS. Monahan0.29 xG
2nd 9:47CBJD. VoronkovPP0.19 xG
2nd 19:14CBJD. VoronkovPP0.08 xG
3rd 3:04CBJK. Marchenko0.29 xG
3rd 4:08BOSC. Coyle0.29 xG

Team Stats

BOSCBJ

26Shots on goal33

1.90Expected goals3.65

52Shot attempts71

195v5 shots on goal27

0/2Power play3/3

18Hits15

17Blocked shots17

6Penalty minutes4

10Giveaways21

6Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BOS 1.90 xGCBJ 3.65 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BOS25 on goal, 2 scored

CBJ33 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Pastrnak	RW	0	1	1	6	1	0	+1	0	18:11	3:05
E. Lindholm	C	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	18:01	2:19
P. Zacha	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	16:46	2:25
B. Marchand	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	16:31	2:25
C. Coyle	C	1	0	1	7	0	0	+1	0	15:59	1:32
M. Geekie	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	2	15:11	1:35
O. Wahlstrom	RW	0	0	0	1	2	2	-2	0	14:20	0:55
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	13:45	1:35
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	13:16	0:00
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	13:11	0:00
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	0	12:58	0:00
J. Beecher	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	12:40	0:00
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	+1	0	21:59	0:00
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	20:32	1:35
C. McAvoy	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	+1	4	20:02	2:25
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	19:10	0:06
J. Oesterle	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:44	0:03
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	0	16:45	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Korpisalo	33	27	6	.818	60:00	Loss
J. Swayman	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Marchenko	RW	1	2	3	3	1	1	+2	2	20:32	2:59
D. Voronkov	LW	2	1	3	5	0	0	+2	0	18:32	2:59
S. Monahan	C	2	0	2	4	0	0	+1	0	18:24	2:59
K. Johnson	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	17:05	2:59
A. Fantilli	C	1	0	1	3	2	0	+1	0	14:45	0:00
M. Pyyhtia	LW	0	1	1	4	1	1	+1	0	12:38	0:00
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	17:14	0:00
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	0	5	0	-2	0	16:56	0:00
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:11	0:00
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	14:05	0:00
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	13:42	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	0	4	4	6	0	2	+1	0	21:19	2:59
I. Provorov	D	0	1	1	0	0	4	+1	0	21:43	0:00
D. Fabbro	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	20:45	0:00
J. Johnson	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	11:09	0:00
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	17:26	0:00
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	15:27	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	9:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	26	24	2	.923	59:55	Win
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamCharlie Coyle CBJ Faces BOS, his team until Mar 20251 G, 7 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BOS 3.4, CBJ 2.9	BOS 2, CBJ 6
Total goals	6.3	8
Shots on goal	BOS 29.2, CBJ 29.3	BOS 26, CBJ 33
Win chance	BOS 57%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.5	6	1.14	1	41%	0
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.0	6	0.80	4	16%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.7	3	0.73	3	28%	1
BOS B. Marchand	2.5	2	0.97	1	33%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	2.5	4	0.77	2	24%	2
CBJ D. Voronkov	2.1	5	0.63	3	26%	2
CBJ C. Sillinger	2.1	1	0.44	0	15%	0
BOS P. Zacha	2.0	1	0.76	1	25%	1
BOS M. Geekie	1.9	1	0.58	0	22%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.9	3	0.60	1	21%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.9	1	0.60	0	11%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	1.8	3	0.43	1	17%	1
BOS E. Lindholm	1.8	0	0.66	1	25%	0
BOS C. Coyle	1.5	7	0.59	1	23%	1
CBJ D. Severson	1.5	0	0.44	0	11%	0
BOS J. Brazeau	1.5	0	0.46	0	20%	0
BOS T. Frederic	1.5	1	0.45	0	20%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.4	1	0.35	0	11%	0
CBJ J. Riemsdyk	1.4	0	0.39	0	15%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.4	0	0.32	0	14%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.4	0	0.37	0	15%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.4	1	0.27	0	12%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.2	1	0.23	1	5%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.2	0	0.34	1	7%	0
BOS O. Wahlstrom	1.2	1	0.25	0	12%	0
BOS J. Oesterle	1.2	1	0.22	0	4%	0
BOS B. Carlo	1.1	2	0.20	0	6%	0
BOS C. Koepke	1.1	1	0.28	0	13%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.0	0	0.41	0	7%	0
CBJ S. Kuraly	1.0	1	0.24	0	11%	0
BOS A. Peeke	1.0	1	0.20	0	4%	0
CBJ M. Pyyhtia	0.8	4	0.17	1	8%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.8	1	0.14	0	3%	0
BOS J. Beecher	0.7	0	0.25	0	12%	0
CBJ J. Johnson	0.5	0	0.08	1	2%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.