Game Recap: BOS 4, CBJ 3 (SO), March 29, 2026

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Game Recap

BOS4

Final/SOSun, Mar 29, 2026Every game that night

CBJ3

BOS beat CBJ 4-3 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 4.77 expected goals to 2.92. BOS outshot CBJ 39 to 25. P. Zacha led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). P. Zacha had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. J. Swayman stopped 22 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
BOS	0	0	3	1	4
CBJ	3	0	0	0	3

1st 6:17CBJB. Jenner0.16 xG
1st 7:45CBJM. Marchment0.09 xG
1st 19:32CBJC. CoylePP0.13 xG
3rd 6:29BOSC. McAvoy0.03 xG
3rd 8:43BOSP. ZachaPP0.09 xG
3rd 19:49BOSP. ZachaPP0.21 xG

Team Stats

BOSCBJ

39Shots on goal25

4.77Expected goals2.92

85Shot attempts49

255v5 shots on goal19

2/4Power play1/2

21Hits23

14Blocked shots24

16Penalty minutes20

14Giveaways15

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BOS 4.77 xGCBJ 2.92 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BOS39 on goal, 3 scored

CBJ25 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Zacha	C	2	1	3	5	1	0	+1	0	18:07	2:48
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	3	3	3	1	0	+1	0	15:14	2:50
D. Pastrnak	RW	0	0	0	6	1	1	-1	4	23:30	3:25
F. Minten	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	19:09	1:49
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	17:03	0:00
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	16:35	2:19
E. Lindholm	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	15:55	2:05
M. Geekie	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	15:31	2:18
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	2	4	2	0	0	14:41	0:06
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	12:36	0:39
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	5	12:00	0:07
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	5	11:21	0:00
C. McAvoy	D	1	1	2	4	0	2	+1	2	26:09	2:44
H. Lindholm	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	23:45	1:51
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	0	19:22	0:25
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	17:56	0:10
J. Aspirot	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	17:49	0:00
H. Jokiharju	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	15:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	25	22	3	.880	63:14	Win
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Marchenko	RW	0	2	2	1	1	2	+1	0	22:31	2:24
M. Marchment	LW	1	1	2	2	0	0	+1	0	14:59	1:57
C. Coyle	C	1	0	1	1	1	3	0	0	18:59	1:54
B. Jenner	C	1	0	1	5	4	0	+1	4	18:43	0:53
C. Garland	RW	0	1	1	2	3	1	+1	0	13:18	0:50
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	21:43	1:53
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	17:43	0:54
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	2	16:29	0:00
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:28	0:00
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	0	12:53	0:00
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	11:45	0:00
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	5	3:06	0:00
I. Provorov	D	0	1	1	1	1	7	0	2	24:50	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	0	30:11	2:47
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	2	23:29	0:00
E. Gudbranson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	5	18:34	0:00
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	15:06	0:23
E. Zamula	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:36	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	39	36	3	.923	65:00	OT loss
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BOS

Line 1D. Pastrnak16:38F. Minten16:00M. Khusnutdinov13:58

Line 2S. Kuraly13:10T. Jeannot11:53M. Kastelic10:26

Line 3C. Mittelstadt12:41P. Zacha10:30V. Arvidsson10:01

Line 4M. Geekie12:50L. Reichel9:59E. Lindholm9:35

Pair 1C. McAvoy18:25J. Aspirot16:53

Pair 2A. Peeke16:18N. Zadorov16:21

Pair 3H. Lindholm16:45H. Jokiharju14:22

CBJ

Line 1K. Marchenko15:18A. Fantilli15:54M. Marchment13:02

Line 2B. Jenner15:58S. Monahan12:26C. Garland12:28

Line 3C. Coyle11:24C. Sillinger13:07M. Wood12:53

Line 4D. Heinen11:01I. Lundestrom11:16

Pair 1D. Fabbro20:02Z. Werenski21:15

Pair 2E. Gudbranson16:21D. Mateychuk12:05

Pair 3I. Provorov20:17E. Zamula8:52

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamCharlie Coyle CBJ Faces BOS, his team until Mar 20251 G, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BOS 3.0, CBJ 3.2	BOS 4, CBJ 3
Total goals	6.2	7
Shots on goal	BOS 25.8, CBJ 30.9	BOS 39, CBJ 25
Win chance	CBJ 55%	BOS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.5	6	1.24	0	40%	0
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.3	2	1.04	0	20%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.9	1	0.81	2	30%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.8	1	0.76	0	28%	0
BOS V. Arvidsson	2.3	3	0.59	3	22%	0
CBJ M. Marchment	2.1	2	0.68	2	26%	1
BOS M. Geekie	2.0	1	0.69	0	28%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.9	1	0.67	1	22%	1
CBJ B. Jenner	1.9	5	0.47	1	20%	1
BOS C. McAvoy	1.8	4	0.67	2	14%	1
BOS E. Lindholm	1.8	4	0.62	0	22%	0
BOS F. Minten	1.8	1	0.50	0	21%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.7	1	0.41	0	13%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.7	1	0.55	0	19%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.6	1	0.39	0	17%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.6	1	0.37	1	8%	0
CBJ C. Garland	1.6	2	0.38	1	15%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.5	5	0.61	3	20%	2
BOS H. Lindholm	1.4	1	0.35	0	8%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.3	2	0.26	0	8%	0
CBJ M. Wood	1.3	4	0.23	0	11%	0
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.2	1	0.52	0	17%	0
BOS A. Peeke	1.1	1	0.20	0	5%	0
BOS S. Kuraly	1.1	2	0.20	0	9%	0
CBJ D. Heinen	1.1	0	0.30	0	13%	0
CBJ E. Gudbranson	1.1	0	0.23	0	5%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.0	0	0.19	0	10%	0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	1.0	3	0.36	0	14%	0
BOS L. Reichel	1.0	1	0.30	0	11%	0
BOS H. Jokiharju	1.0	1	0.22	0	4%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.0	1	0.22	0	6%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.9	0	0.21	0	9%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.9	2	0.30	0	8%	0
BOS J. Aspirot	0.8	0	0.23	0	6%	0
BOS T. Jeannot	0.8	3	0.20	0	9%	0
CBJ E. Zamula	0.5	0	0.15	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.