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Game Recap
BOS2
DAL7
DAL beat BOS 7-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.60 expected goals to 2.55. DAL outshot BOS 38 to 25. E. Dadonov led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). L. Stankoven had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. J. Oettinger stopped 23 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| DAL | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
- 1st 1:09DALM. Duchene0.05 xG
- 1st 6:36DALE. Dadonov0.26 xG
- 1st 17:48BOSC. Coyle0.07 xG
- 2nd 14:15DALL. Stankoven0.51 xG
- 2nd 15:56DALO. Bäck0.07 xG
- 2nd 19:49DALE. Dadonov0.12 xG
- 3rd 0:47DALR. Hintz0.19 xG
- 3rd 3:35BOSD. Pastrnak0.13 xG
- 3rd 17:19DALM. Marchment0.14 xG
Team Stats
BOSDAL
25Shots on goal38
2.55Expected goals3.60
49Shot attempts56
215v5 shots on goal34
0/2Power play0/2
25Hits6
9Blocked shots9
19Penalty minutes9
20Giveaways10
7Takeaways10
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BOS 2.55 xGDAL 3.60 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:15 | 3:16 |
| M. Geekie | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:48 | 1:00 |
| C. Coyle | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:06 | 1:30 |
| T. Frederic | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 13:37 | 1:29 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:25 | 1:32 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:22 | 2:03 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:54 | 2:23 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:39 | 2:27 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:11 | 0:02 |
| P. Brown | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:42 | 0:00 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:28 | 0:04 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:45 | 0:03 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 22:29 | 1:46 |
| C. McAvoy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22:23 | 2:06 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 17 | 19:24 | 0:12 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:06 | 0:05 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 17:51 | 0:00 |
| J. Oesterle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:02 | 0:02 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 38 | 31 | 7 | .816 | 60:00 | Loss |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Seguin | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:02 | 0:00 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:51 | 0:00 |
| M. Duchene | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:12 | 0:00 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 15:10 | 0:58 |
| O. Bäck | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:52 | 0:58 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:41 | 0:56 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:27 | 0:36 |
| R. Hintz | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:15 | 0:54 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:30 | 1:01 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 7 | 12:38 | 0:38 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:52 | 0:58 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:29 | 0:39 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 23:32 | 0:59 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:44 | 0:59 |
| B. Smith | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:27 | 0:37 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:00 | 1:01 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:51 | 0:00 |
| N. Lundkvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 16:27 | 1:31 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 25 | 23 | 2 | .920 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BOS 2.6, DAL 3.1 | BOS 2, DAL 7 |
| Total goals | 5.6 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | BOS 24.7, DAL 30.9 | BOS 25, DAL 38 |
| Win chance | DAL 59% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.9 | 2 | 1.03 | 1 | 39% | 1 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.7 | 2 | 0.66 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.5 | 3 | 0.83 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| DAL T. Seguin | 2.4 | 6 | 0.65 | 2 | 24% | 0 |
| DAL L. Stankoven | 2.2 | 6 | 0.57 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| BOS B. Marchand | 2.2 | 3 | 0.73 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.1 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.0 | 2 | 0.70 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.8 | 1 | 0.62 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| DAL M. Marchment | 1.8 | 3 | 0.58 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.8 | 3 | 0.71 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.8 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.7 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.6 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.6 | 0 | 0.42 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.6 | 3 | 0.43 | 2 | 16% | 2 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.4 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS C. Coyle | 1.4 | 3 | 0.46 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.3 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.3 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 1.3 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS J. Brazeau | 1.3 | 4 | 0.34 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BOS T. Frederic | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.2 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS C. Koepke | 1.1 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL N. Lundkvist | 1.1 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS B. Carlo | 1.0 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL B. Smith | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 2 | 9% | 1 |
| BOS J. Oesterle | 0.7 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS P. Brown | 0.7 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS P. Wotherspoon | 0.7 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.