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Game Recap
BOS2
DAL6
DAL beat BOS 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.51 expected goals to 2.20. DAL outshot BOS 37 to 18. J. Hryckowian led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. Robertson had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 3.3. J. Oettinger stopped 16 of 18.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| DAL | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
- 1st 16:08DALW. JohnstonPP0.12 xG
- 1st 19:47DALM. BourquePP0.44 xG
- 2nd 8:26DALE. Lindell0.01 xG
- 2nd 19:29DALJ. Hryckowian0.03 xG
- 3rd 3:15DALJ. Robertson0.07 xG
- 3rd 6:37DALJ. Robertson0.03 xG
- 3rd 12:11BOSM. GeekiePP0.09 xG
- 3rd 15:39BOSF. Minten0.13 xG
Team Stats
BOSDAL
18Shots on goal37
2.20Expected goals3.51
40Shot attempts69
145v5 shots on goal28
1/2Power play2/3
35Hits13
17Blocked shots12
11Penalty minutes9
16Giveaways12
3Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BOS 2.20 xGDAL 3.51 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 20:11 | 2:26 |
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 18:52 | 2:26 |
| M. Geekie | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:38 | 2:26 |
| F. Minten | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:31 | 1:01 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:28 | 0:00 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:53 | 0:40 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:32 | 0:40 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:26 | 0:00 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:14 | 2:05 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:07 | 0:00 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:48 | 0:00 |
| A. Steeves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:42 | 0:28 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 20:10 | 0:00 |
| C. McAvoy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 22:20 | 2:26 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:13 | 0:00 |
| H. Lindholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 20:13 | 0:12 |
| J. Aspirot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 5 | 16:51 | 0:00 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:34 | 0:40 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 34 | 28 | 6 | .824 | 46:37 | Loss |
| J. Korpisalo | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1.000 | 13:23 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hryckowian | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:31 | 1:48 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 18:54 | 2:31 |
| M. Bourque | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:37 | 1:46 |
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:06 | 2:29 |
| W. Johnston | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:28 | 2:31 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:23 | 0:00 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:09 | 2:31 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:39 | 0:00 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:23 | 0:00 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:53 | 0:00 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:44 | 1:46 |
| N. Bastian | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 9:27 | 0:00 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:52 | 2:38 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 23:08 | 1:39 |
| E. Lindell | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 2 | 21:52 | 1:46 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:56 | 0:00 |
| N. Lundkvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:07 | 0:00 |
| A. Petrovic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:45 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 18 | 16 | 2 | .889 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
BOS
Line 1E. Lindholm15:57D. Pastrnak16:26M. Khusnutdinov13:23
Line 2V. Arvidsson13:52C. Mittelstadt14:13P. Zacha12:09
Line 3S. Kuraly11:55M. Kastelic12:59T. Jeannot11:46
Line 4M. Geekie11:12F. Minten12:30A. Steeves11:14
Pair 1A. Peeke19:06N. Zadorov19:02
Pair 2C. McAvoy17:42J. Aspirot16:01
Pair 3H. Lindholm17:44M. Lohrei15:54
DAL
Line 1M. Duchene15:38W. Johnston15:57S. Steel13:58
Line 2J. Robertson16:23M. Bourque15:39R. Hintz13:25
Line 3O. Bäck11:58J. Hryckowian11:57J. Benn10:58
Line 4C. Blackwell11:23R. Faksa10:57N. Bastian9:27
Pair 1E. Lindell18:38M. Heiskanen17:47
Pair 2T. Harley19:50N. Lundkvist17:07
Pair 3A. Petrovic15:45I. Lyubushkin16:18
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BOS 2.9, DAL 3.2 | BOS 2, DAL 6 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | BOS 26.4, DAL 26.7 | BOS 18, DAL 37 |
| Win chance | DAL 54% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.4 | 1 | 1.15 | 1 | 37% | 0 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 3.3 | 9 | 1.12 | 2 | 38% | 2 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.5 | 3 | 0.88 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.4 | 1 | 0.87 | 2 | 32% | 0 |
| BOS V. Arvidsson | 2.4 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.0 | 1 | 0.73 | 3 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 1.9 | 1 | 0.65 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.9 | 2 | 0.56 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.7 | 0 | 0.59 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.7 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 1.7 | 3 | 0.36 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.6 | 3 | 0.66 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.6 | 3 | 0.36 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.4 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.4 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS S. Kuraly | 1.3 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS F. Minten | 1.3 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.3 | 3 | 0.42 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DAL N. Lundkvist | 1.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS A. Steeves | 1.2 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.2 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS C. Mittelstadt | 1.2 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.2 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.1 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.1 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| BOS T. Jeannot | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL J. Hryckowian | 1.1 | 3 | 0.30 | 3 | 13% | 1 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL A. Petrovic | 1.0 | 3 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 1.0 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 0.9 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL R. Faksa | 0.8 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS J. Aspirot | 0.8 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL N. Bastian | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.6 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.6 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.