Game Recap: BOS 2, DAL 3 (OT), October 20, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

BOS2

Final/OTTue, Oct 20, 2026Every game that night

DAL3

DAL beat BOS 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.24 expected goals to 2.01. M. Rantanen scored three for DAL. M. Rantanen had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. J. Oettinger stopped 18 of 20.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
BOS	1	1	0	0	2
DAL	0	1	1	1	3

1st 2:09BOSM. Poitras0.10 xG
2nd 2:50DALM. Rantanen0.32 xG
2nd 7:30BOSJ. Hagens0.24 xG
3rd 13:38DALM. Rantanen0.13 xG
OT 3:52DALM. RantanenPP0.24 xG

Team Stats

BOSDAL

20Shots on goal25

2.01Expected goals4.24

43Shot attempts66

155v5 shots on goal16

0/4Power play1/3

23Hits18

22Blocked shots13

6Penalty minutes8

15Giveaways8

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BOS 2.01 xGDAL 4.24 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BOS20 on goal, 2 scored

DAL25 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	1	1	0	1	2	+1	0	14:58	1:59
J. Hagens	C	1	0	1	2	1	2	+1	0	13:20	2:19
T. Jeannot	LW	0	1	1	1	4	2	+1	2	9:05	0:00
M. Poitras	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	9:01	0:00
D. Pastrnak	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	21:41	6:03
P. Zacha	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	2	21:22	5:33
E. Lindholm	C	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	20:18	5:24
J. Peterka	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	19:18	2:25
F. Minten	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	17:11	1:58
M. Geekie	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	16:59	5:40
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	14:26	0:00
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	11:47	0:00
N. Zadorov	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	+1	0	20:48	0:00
F. Brunet	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	16:37	2:16
C. McAvoy	D	0	0	0	0	2	4	-1	2	27:04	5:44
H. Lindholm	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	19:28	0:15
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	+1	0	18:38	0:16
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:35	0:08

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	25	22	3	.880	63:52	OT loss
M. DiPietro	0	0	0	–	0:00

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Rantanen	RW	3	0	3	6	2	0	+2	2	22:12	5:24
J. Robertson	LW	0	2	2	3	0	1	+1	0	23:34	4:36
R. Hintz	C	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	17:51	2:47
W. Johnston	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	+1	0	20:41	4:36
A. Hyry	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	16:22	0:00
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	13:57	0:00
J. Benn	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:23	0:48
J. Hryckowian	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	12:40	1:13
T. Seguin	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	12:34	0:48
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	10:58	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	10:15	0:00
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	10:07	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	2	29:33	4:36
T. Harley	D	0	1	1	3	0	4	-1	2	27:50	0:48
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	17:47	0:00
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	16:29	0:00
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	15:43	0:00
K. Capobianco	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	13:32	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	20	18	2	.900	63:24	Win
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BOS

Line 1J. Peterka15:40D. Pastrnak14:43P. Zacha13:56

Line 2C. Mittelstadt11:47J. Hagens11:01E. Lindholm11:37

Line 3M. Khusnutdinov11:47F. Minten13:27M. Geekie11:19

Line 4T. Jeannot8:32M. Kastelic10:55M. Poitras9:01

Pair 1N. Zadorov17:39W. Borgen16:40

Pair 2H. Lindholm16:49C. McAvoy17:00

Pair 3M. Lohrei14:57F. Brunet13:10

DAL

Line 1R. Hintz12:57J. Robertson17:46T. Seguin11:46

Line 2W. Johnston14:20M. Rantanen15:01S. Steel11:24

Line 3J. Benn12:35A. Hyry13:38J. Hryckowian9:41

Line 4C. Blackwell8:42R. Faksa7:50J. Kiviranta7:19

Pair 1M. Heiskanen19:53T. Harley21:52

Pair 2T. Myers13:24K. Capobianco13:32

Pair 3L. Bichsel13:51N. Lundkvist14:29

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 17 overs hit (47%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.5	+128	-150	0	Under
DAL J. Robertson	3.5	+125	-150	3	Under
DAL M. Rantanen	2.5	+136	-160	6	Over
DAL R. Hintz	2.5	+130	-170	0	Under
DAL W. Johnston	2.5	-110	-105	4	Over
DAL A. Hyry	1.5	+110	–	2	Over
BOS C. McAvoy	1.5	-113	-110	0	Under
BOS E. Lindholm	1.5	-106	-115	3	Over
BOS F. Minten	1.5	-140	+115	3	Over
DAL J. Benn	1.5	+125	-190	0	Under
BOS J. Hagens	1.5	+135	-200	2	Over
BOS J. Peterka	1.5	-105	+105	1	Under
BOS M. Geekie	1.5	-110	-105	1	Under
DAL M. Heiskanen	1.5	-150	+130	0	Under
BOS P. Zacha	1.5	-115	-110	4	Over
DAL T. Harley	1.5	-125	+115	3	Over
DAL T. Seguin	1.5	-135	+115	1	Under

3 of 36 overs hit (8%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
DAL A. Hyry	0.5	+650	-1200	0	Under
DAL C. Blackwell	0.5	+950	-2800	0	Under
BOS C. McAvoy	0.5	+800	-1400	0	Under
BOS C. Mittelstadt	0.5	+550	-900	0	Under
BOS D. Pastrnak	0.5	+200	-270	0	Under
BOS E. Lindholm	0.5	+410	-550	0	Under
BOS F. Brunet	0.5	+1400	-3500	0	Under
BOS F. Minten	0.5	+370	-550	0	Under
BOS H. Lindholm	0.5	+1700	-2500	0	Under
DAL J. Benn	0.5	+475	-800	0	Under
BOS J. Hagens	0.5	+550	-800	1	Over
DAL J. Hryckowian	0.5	+550	-750	0	Under
DAL J. Kiviranta	0.5	+900	-2000	0	Under
BOS J. Peterka	0.5	+360	-550	0	Under
DAL J. Robertson	0.5	+145	-165	0	Under
DAL K. Capobianco	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
DAL L. Bichsel	0.5	+2100	-3500	0	Under
BOS M. Geekie	0.5	+300	-440	0	Under
DAL M. Heiskanen	0.5	+575	-800	0	Under
BOS M. Kastelic	0.5	+1000	-2800	0	Under
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	0.5	+700	-1600	0	Under
BOS M. Lohrei	0.5	+1700	-4000	0	Under
BOS M. Poitras	0.5	+750	-2500	1	Over
DAL M. Rantanen	0.5	+190	-240	3	Over
DAL N. Lundkvist	0.5	+1900	-4000	0	Under
BOS N. Zadorov	0.5	+2000	-2500	0	Under
BOS P. Zacha	0.5	+320	-475	0	Under
DAL R. Faksa	0.5	+1200	-2800	0	Under
DAL R. Hintz	0.5	+210	-260	0	Under
DAL S. Steel	0.5	+600	-800	0	Under
DAL T. Harley	0.5	+850	-1000	0	Under
BOS T. Jeannot	0.5	+1200	-2800	0	Under
DAL T. Myers	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
DAL T. Seguin	0.5	+310	-390	0	Under
BOS W. Borgen	0.5	+1700	-4000	0	Under
DAL W. Johnston	0.5	+174	-225	0	Under

4 of 17 overs hit (24%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
BOS C. McAvoy	0.5	+125	-155	0	Under
BOS D. Pastrnak	0.5	-115	-111	0	Under
BOS E. Lindholm	0.5	+225	-295	0	Under
BOS F. Minten	0.5	+320	-350	0	Under
DAL J. Benn	0.5	+270	-400	0	Under
BOS J. Hagens	0.5	+250	–	0	Under
BOS J. Peterka	0.5	+265	-325	0	Under
DAL J. Robertson	0.5	+110	-130	2	Over
BOS M. Geekie	0.5	+185	-250	0	Under
DAL M. Heiskanen	0.5	+102	-120	1	Over
DAL M. Rantanen	0.5	-120	-105	0	Under
BOS P. Zacha	0.5	+175	-205	0	Under
DAL R. Hintz	0.5	+140	-175	1	Over
DAL S. Steel	0.5	+260	-450	0	Under
DAL T. Harley	0.5	+205	-250	1	Over
DAL T. Seguin	0.5	+235	-300	0	Under
DAL W. Johnston	0.5	+130	-175	0	Under

6 of 17 overs hit (35%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
DAL M. Rantanen	1.5	+190	-260	3	Over
BOS C. McAvoy	0.5	+105	-132	0	Under
BOS D. Pastrnak	0.5	-200	+175	0	Under
BOS E. Lindholm	0.5	+128	-140	0	Under
BOS F. Minten	0.5	+145	-155	0	Under
DAL J. Benn	0.5	+160	-185	0	Under
BOS J. Hagens	0.5	+165	-225	1	Over
BOS J. Peterka	0.5	+135	-160	0	Under
DAL J. Robertson	0.5	-235	+180	2	Over
BOS M. Geekie	0.5	+100	-130	0	Under
DAL M. Heiskanen	0.5	-132	+115	1	Over
BOS P. Zacha	0.5	+100	-120	0	Under
DAL R. Hintz	0.5	-145	+120	1	Over
DAL S. Steel	0.5	+140	-175	0	Under
DAL T. Harley	0.5	+155	-175	1	Over
DAL T. Seguin	0.5	+110	-130	0	Under
DAL W. Johnston	0.5	-155	+145	0	Under

3 of 19 overs hit (16%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
BOS C. McAvoy	0.5	+240	-300	0	Under
BOS C. Mittelstadt	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
BOS D. Pastrnak	0.5	+180	-215	0	Under
BOS E. Lindholm	0.5	+380	-500	0	Under
BOS F. Brunet	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
BOS F. Minten	0.5	+325	-600	0	Under
DAL J. Benn	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
BOS J. Hagens	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
BOS J. Peterka	0.5	+390	-1000	0	Under
DAL J. Robertson	0.5	+145	-150	1	Over
BOS M. Geekie	0.5	+260	-450	0	Under
DAL M. Heiskanen	0.5	+210	-225	1	Over
DAL M. Rantanen	0.5	+155	-160	1	Over
BOS P. Zacha	0.5	+325	-450	0	Under
DAL R. Hintz	0.5	+225	-280	0	Under
DAL S. Steel	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
DAL T. Harley	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
DAL T. Seguin	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
DAL W. Johnston	0.5	+160	-220	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
BOS J. Swayman	25.5	-105	-125	22	Under
DAL J. Oettinger	22.5	-108	-122	18	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
BOS C. McAvoy	2.5	+120	-165	4	Over
DAL M. Heiskanen	1.5	-130	-105	2	Over
DAL T. Harley	1.5	-190	+135	4	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BOS 2.6, DAL 3.0	BOS 2, DAL 3
Total goals	5.6	5
Shots on goal	BOS 23.6, DAL 27.9	BOS 20, DAL 25
Win chance	DAL 57%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DAL J. Robertson	3.1	3	0.96	2	34%	0
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.0	0	1.03	0	34%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.7	4	0.90	0	35%	0
DAL M. Rantanen	2.3	6	1.08	3	33%	3
DAL R. Hintz	2.2	0	0.76	1	27%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.1	0	0.75	1	13%	0
DAL T. Seguin	2.1	1	0.60	0	23%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.9	3	0.51	1	12%	0
BOS J. Peterka	1.8	1	0.55	0	23%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.7	0	0.63	0	12%	0
BOS M. Geekie	1.6	1	0.62	0	25%	0
BOS F. Minten	1.6	3	0.44	0	19%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.6	4	0.60	0	21%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.5	0	0.46	0	15%	0
DAL A. Hyry	1.4	2	0.28	0	14%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	1.4	3	0.50	0	19%	0
BOS H. Lindholm	1.3	0	0.34	0	7%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.3	0	0.43	0	16%	0
BOS J. Hagens	1.2	2	0.32	1	10%	1
BOS N. Zadorov	1.2	1	0.25	1	6%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.2	0	0.35	0	15%	0
DAL J. Kiviranta	1.1	0	0.19	0	10%	0
BOS F. Brunet	1.1	1	0.17	1	4%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.1	1	0.25	0	5%	0
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.0	0	0.39	1	13%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.0	1	0.22	0	10%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	0.9	2	0.18	0	8%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	0.9	0	0.29	0	7%	0
DAL T. Myers	0.9	0	0.16	0	3%	0
BOS M. Poitras	0.9	2	0.29	1	9%	1
BOS W. Borgen	0.9	0	0.22	0	5%	0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	0.8	0	0.30	0	12%	0
BOS T. Jeannot	0.8	1	0.20	1	9%	0
DAL R. Faksa	0.8	1	0.21	0	7%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.7	2	0.16	0	6%	0
DAL K. Capobianco	0.6	0	0.11	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.