BOS beat FLA 4-3 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.78 expected goals to 5.51. FLA outshot BOS 43 to 18. D. Pastrnak led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). S. Reinhart had 11 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. J. Swayman stopped 40 of 43.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| FLA | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 6:02BOSM. GeekiePP0.16 xG
- 1st 15:29FLAE. RodriguesPP0.02 xG
- 2nd 16:11BOSD. Pastrnak0.06 xG
- 3rd 0:43FLAS. Reinhart0.14 xG
- 3rd 2:06BOSO. Wahlstrom0.17 xG
- 3rd 19:57FLAS. Reinhart0.30 xG
- OT 4:58BOSD. PastrnakPP0.09 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BOS 2.78 xGFLA 5.51 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 25:09 | 7:40 |
| M. Geekie | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 18:56 | 3:00 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:09 | 5:44 |
| T. Frederic | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 14:28 | 0:00 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:13 | 3:03 |
| O. Wahlstrom | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 8:15 | 1:03 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 23:59 | 4:21 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 21:54 | 5:52 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:50 | 2:44 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:37 | 0:00 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:36 | 0:00 |
| M. McLaughlin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:56 | 0:00 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 20:42 | 4:52 |
| C. McAvoy | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 21:54 | 4:02 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 21:34 | 0:00 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 20:38 | 0:19 |
| J. Oesterle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:56 | 0:00 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 15:49 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 43 | 40 | 3 | .930 | 64:58 | Win |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Reinhart | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 25:35 | 4:28 |
| A. Barkov | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 25:14 | 4:25 |
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:50 | 4:35 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:59 | 1:34 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:36 | 1:29 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 14:29 | 1:12 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:38 | 4:24 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16:37 | 0:00 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:12 | 0:00 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:09 | 0:02 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 6:46 | 0:00 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:23 | 1:29 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25:53 | 0:17 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:43 | 1:52 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 22:35 | 4:03 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:26 | 0:00 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 20:41 | 0:00 |
| T. Bjornfot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:54 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 18 | 14 | 4 | .778 | 63:00 | OT loss |
| S. Knight | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BOS 2.7, FLA 3.1 | BOS 4, FLA 3 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | BOS 26.4, FLA 30.9 | BOS 18, FLA 43 |
| Win chance | FLA 55% | BOS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.6 | 4 | 0.96 | 3 | 37% | 2 |
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 2.8 | 3 | 0.95 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.8 | 6 | 0.79 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.6 | 11 | 0.96 | 2 | 38% | 2 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.5 | 2 | 0.61 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.4 | 3 | 1.02 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| BOS B. Marchand | 2.3 | 2 | 0.70 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.2 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 1.9 | 1 | 0.57 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 1.8 | 4 | 0.45 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 1.8 | 1 | 0.47 | 2 | 19% | 1 |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.7 | 2 | 0.51 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.6 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.6 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| BOS J. Brazeau | 1.4 | 0 | 0.37 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| BOS T. Frederic | 1.4 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS O. Wahlstrom | 1.3 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| BOS C. Coyle | 1.3 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.2 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.2 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.2 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.1 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.1 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS J. Oesterle | 1.1 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS B. Carlo | 1.0 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.0 | 1 | 0.36 | 2 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS M. McLaughlin | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS C. Koepke | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA T. Bjornfot | 0.7 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 0.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 29 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.