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Game Recap
BOS1
FLA2
FLA beat BOS 2-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.89 expected goals to 2.99. S. Bennett had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. S. Bobrovsky stopped 28 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| FLA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 4:20FLAM. Samoskevich0.14 xG
- 1st 7:39FLAS. Bennett0.15 xG
- 1st 19:33BOSF. Minten0.43 xG
Team Stats
BOSFLA
29Shots on goal24
2.99Expected goals3.89
68Shot attempts57
245v5 shots on goal22
0/2Power play0/1
22Hits22
18Blocked shots18
2Penalty minutes4
20Giveaways11
4Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BOS 2.99 xGFLA 3.89 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 24:12 | 3:32 |
| F. Minten | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:16 | 0:28 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:46 | 0:00 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:53 | 2:29 |
| M. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:42 | 2:29 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:53 | 3:30 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:37 | 1:46 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:06 | 1:34 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:42 | 0:00 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:23 | 0:00 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:09 | 0:00 |
| L. Reichel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:03 | 0:27 |
| C. McAvoy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 27:37 | 3:43 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:35 | 0:00 |
| H. Lindholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 18:29 | 0:17 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:46 | 0:00 |
| J. Aspirot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:19 | 0:00 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 15:14 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 24 | 22 | 2 | .917 | 58:18 | Loss |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bennett | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:52 | 1:30 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 16:37 | 0:00 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 13:56 | 1:21 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:11 | 1:32 |
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:17 | 1:35 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 15:57 | 0:25 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:39 | 0:00 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:33 | 0:30 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:47 | 0:39 |
| N. Foote | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:56 | 0:00 |
| N. Gregor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:52 | 0:00 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:47 | 0:00 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 27:13 | 0:28 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 26:39 | 1:09 |
| D. Sebrango | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:29 | 0:00 |
| T. Bjornfot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:39 | 0:00 |
| M. Benning | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:28 | 0:51 |
| M. Hovorka | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:08 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 29 | 28 | 1 | .966 | 60:00 | Win |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
BOS
Line 1E. Lindholm15:31M. Geekie14:52D. Pastrnak19:13
Line 2M. Khusnutdinov13:12F. Minten14:01L. Reichel9:36
Line 3P. Zacha13:02C. Mittelstadt12:32V. Arvidsson11:30
Line 4T. Jeannot12:14M. Kastelic11:30S. Kuraly10:06
Pair 1N. Zadorov17:44A. Peeke17:04
Pair 2C. McAvoy21:13J. Aspirot17:19
Pair 3H. Lindholm16:58H. Jokiharju15:08
FLA
Line 1C. Verhaeghe17:56S. Bennett16:36M. Tkachuk15:09
Line 2A. Greer14:48E. Luostarinen12:57M. Samoskevich12:29
Line 3T. Nosek12:09J. Boqvist11:44N. Gregor10:52
Line 4L. Kunin10:47N. Foote10:56V. Hinostroza11:08
Pair 1S. Jones21:07D. Sebrango19:31
Pair 2G. Forsling22:08M. Benning15:37
Pair 3T. Bjornfot15:43M. Hovorka11:08
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BOS 3.2, FLA 3.1 | BOS 1, FLA 2 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | BOS 26.4, FLA 29.3 | BOS 29, FLA 24 |
| Win chance | BOS 51% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.2 | 5 | 1.26 | 1 | 39% | 0 |
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 3.0 | 2 | 1.10 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.9 | 7 | 0.84 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.8 | 1 | 0.84 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 2.2 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| BOS V. Arvidsson | 2.2 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.8 | 2 | 0.73 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 1.8 | 3 | 0.68 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| FLA S. Jones | 1.7 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.7 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.6 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.6 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BOS F. Minten | 1.6 | 2 | 0.49 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.5 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.5 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 1.5 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA V. Hinostroza | 1.4 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.4 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA N. Gregor | 1.3 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA N. Foote | 1.3 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS S. Kuraly | 1.2 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.2 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS C. Mittelstadt | 1.1 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 1.1 | 3 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA L. Kunin | 1.1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 1.0 | 1 | 0.37 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS H. Jokiharju | 0.9 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS L. Reichel | 0.9 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS T. Jeannot | 0.8 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS J. Aspirot | 0.8 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA D. Sebrango | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA M. Benning | 0.7 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA T. Bjornfot | 0.6 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.