NJD beat BOS 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.45 expected goals to 1.92. NJD outshot BOS 34 to 23. N. Hischier led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). S. Noesen had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. J. Allen stopped 16 of 16.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| NJD | 0 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
- 1st 5:50BOSM. Geekie0.16 xG
- 2nd 1:24NJDD. Mercer0.17 xG
- 2nd 4:12NJDD. HamiltonPP0.08 xG
- 2nd 16:01NJDS. NoesenPP0.05 xG
- 2nd 16:13NJDD. Mercer0.22 xG
- 3rd 13:32NJDN. HischierPP0.03 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BOS 1.92 xGNJD 3.45 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:15 | 3:50 |
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:13 | 4:40 |
| M. Geekie | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:14 | 1:22 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:41 | 4:15 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 16:22 | 1:23 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:12 | 3:49 |
| M. Poitras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:08 | 0:31 |
| V. Lettieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:56 | 0:32 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:54 | 0:00 |
| M. Jones | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:33 | 0:00 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10:08 | 0:25 |
| O. Wahlstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:36 | 0:00 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 23:31 | 0:00 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 21:36 | 0:00 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:38 | 4:15 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:14 | 0:01 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:13 | 0:00 |
| J. Oesterle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:33 | 0:57 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 28 | 24 | 4 | .857 | 39:40 | Loss |
| J. Korpisalo | 6 | 5 | 1 | .833 | 20:00 |
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Hischier | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:41 | 6:14 |
| D. Mercer | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:37 | 2:29 |
| T. Meier | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:36 | 2:24 |
| J. Hughes | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:47 | 6:30 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:37 | 6:06 |
| S. Noesen | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:38 | 6:11 |
| J. Dowling | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 12:45 | 0:00 |
| N. Bastian | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:56 | 0:00 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:37 | 2:01 |
| C. Lazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:51 | 0:00 |
| T. Tatar | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:27 | 2:21 |
| K. MacDermid | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6:09 | 0:00 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:50 | 5:57 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 21:16 | 0:00 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:43 | 0:00 |
| B. Pesce | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:12 | 0:03 |
| L. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:11 | 2:39 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | +1 | 2 | 17:07 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Markstrom | 7 | 6 | 1 | .857 | 23:09 | |
| J. Allen | 16 | 16 | 0 | 1.000 | 36:51 | Win |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BOS 2.8, NJD 3.0 | BOS 1, NJD 5 |
| Total goals | 5.7 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | BOS 25.1, NJD 30.1 | BOS 23, NJD 34 |
| Win chance | NJD 54% | NJD won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD J. Hughes | 4.0 | 4 | 1.18 | 1 | 36% | 0 |
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.7 | 5 | 1.07 | 1 | 41% | 0 |
| NJD T. Meier | 3.0 | 2 | 0.73 | 2 | 31% | 0 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.7 | 3 | 0.89 | 3 | 30% | 1 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.5 | 3 | 1.00 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.5 | 3 | 0.58 | 2 | 13% | 1 |
| BOS B. Marchand | 2.3 | 2 | 0.75 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| NJD S. Noesen | 2.2 | 5 | 0.60 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 1.8 | 2 | 0.51 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.7 | 1 | 0.64 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.7 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.6 | 3 | 0.45 | 2 | 21% | 2 |
| NJD L. Hughes | 1.5 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS C. Coyle | 1.4 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NJD B. Pesce | 1.4 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS O. Wahlstrom | 1.3 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 1.2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS M. Jones | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS J. Brazeau | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BOS V. Lettieri | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NJD N. Bastian | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS B. Carlo | 1.0 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.0 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS J. Oesterle | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 1.0 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 0.9 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD T. Tatar | 0.9 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS M. Poitras | 0.9 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS P. Wotherspoon | 0.9 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NJD C. Lazar | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NJD J. Dowling | 0.7 | 2 | 0.18 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.6 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 0.6 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NJD K. MacDermid | 0.3 | 0 | 0.07 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.