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Game Recap
BOS7
NJD2
BOS beat NJD 7-2, with the chances close: 2.41 expected goals to 2.01. D. Pastrnak led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. Swayman stopped 19 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| NJD | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 9:38BOSD. Pastrnak0.13 xG
- 1st 19:24BOSM. Callahan0.03 xG
- 2nd 3:45BOSJ. Lauko0.12 xG
- 2nd 13:51NJDS. Noesen0.15 xG
- 2nd 14:10NJDT. Meier0.14 xG
- 2nd 19:07BOSC. Mittelstadt0.01 xG
- 3rd 4:58BOSM. Geekie0.15 xG
- 3rd 6:55BOSF. Minten0.29 xG
- 3rd 10:50BOSC. Koepke0.31 xG
Team Stats
BOSNJD
25Shots on goal21
2.41Expected goals2.01
49Shot attempts54
235v5 shots on goal16
0/2Power play0/1
15Hits27
14Blocked shots12
2Penalty minutes4
16Giveaways16
2Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BOS 2.41 xGNJD 2.01 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 17:44 | 2:40 |
| M. Geekie | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 16:56 | 2:43 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 16:22 | 2:41 |
| F. Lysell | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:25 | 1:18 |
| V. Lettieri | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:15 | 1:19 |
| F. Minten | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:50 | 0:00 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:26 | 0:00 |
| J. Lauko | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 11:57 | 0:00 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 17:02 | 2:14 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:51 | 1:42 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:52 | 1:19 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:20 | 0:00 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 19:26 | 0:00 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 19:10 | 0:00 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:04 | 1:18 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:36 | 0:00 |
| M. Callahan | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:11 | 0:00 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 21:33 | 2:46 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 21 | 19 | 2 | .905 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Hischier | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:41 | 0:59 |
| S. Noesen | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:21 | 0:46 |
| T. Meier | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:21 | 1:04 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:07 | 0:14 |
| D. Sprong | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:56 | 0:47 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 18:31 | 1:00 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:32 | 1:00 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:44 | 0:46 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:42 | 0:14 |
| T. Tatar | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:35 | 0:42 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 12:21 | 0:14 |
| J. Dowling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:15 | 0:00 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:44 | 0:00 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:41 | 0:14 |
| L. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 19:29 | 1:46 |
| B. Pesce | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 19:23 | 0:00 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 18:30 | 0:00 |
| S. Casey | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:36 | 0:14 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Markstrom | 23 | 16 | 7 | .696 | 50:21 | Loss |
| J. Allen | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1.000 | 9:10 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BOS 2.7, NJD 3.1 | BOS 7, NJD 2 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | BOS 24.1, NJD 29.2 | BOS 25, NJD 21 |
| Win chance | NJD 58% | BOS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.4 | 1 | 1.03 | 3 | 38% | 1 |
| NJD T. Meier | 3.2 | 2 | 0.75 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.7 | 0 | 0.99 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.4 | 1 | 1.09 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| NJD S. Noesen | 2.1 | 3 | 0.56 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 1.9 | 3 | 0.63 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| NJD L. Hughes | 1.8 | 3 | 0.70 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NJD D. Sprong | 1.8 | 3 | 0.45 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.8 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NJD E. Haula | 1.7 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| NJD C. Glass | 1.7 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.7 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NJD B. Pesce | 1.6 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS V. Lettieri | 1.6 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS F. Lysell | 1.4 | 1 | 0.18 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.4 | 2 | 0.27 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.4 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.3 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BOS C. Mittelstadt | 1.3 | 2 | 0.52 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.2 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS H. Jokiharju | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS C. Koepke | 1.1 | 3 | 0.22 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 1.1 | 2 | 0.20 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| NJD T. Tatar | 1.1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 1.0 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS F. Minten | 0.9 | 2 | 0.21 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| NJD B. Dumoulin | 0.9 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS P. Wotherspoon | 0.9 | 1 | 0.16 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
| NJD J. Dowling | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NJD S. Casey | 0.8 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS J. Lauko | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.7 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 0.6 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS M. Callahan | 0.6 | 1 | 0.08 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 0.6 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.